Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins Prop Pick: Can Bryce Harper Get On Base in Minnesota?
The Philadelphia Phillies are staying on the road in Minnesota for a matchup with the Twins. Can Bryce Harper find his way onto the base paths in this one? MJC Locks is back with his top prop pick in Phillies vs. Twins.
MJC Locks - July 23, 2024, 4:06 PM EDT
5 minPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins Prop Pick: Can Bryce Harper Get On Base in Minnesota?
We have a loaded Tuesday MLB slate today, and I have a plus money prop that I am loving in the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins game. Simeon Woods-Richardson will take the mound for the Twins today, and one hitter I am going to be looking at to target is Phillies lefty, Bryce Harper.
Phillies vs. Twins DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 23, 2024
- Start Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction
In my opinion, this price is almost always worth taking for Bryce Harper. He ranks in the 97th percentile in walk rate this season which is elite. The way he approaches each at bat, he is very disciplined and patient and in turn it leads to a lot of walks. I think its a great matchup for him, and I expect him to see at least one 3-ball count and potentially more. Simeon Woods-Richardson ranks about average in overall walk rate; however, he does tend to walk left-handed batters at a much higher rate and typically walks two or so batters on average each start, as he has now in seven of the last nine starts.
Bryce Harper now has walked six times over his last eight games and with it being a road game, the chance of an extra plate appearance is much higher. He may see five or more of them here, which gives us a slight increase in the probability that he walks today. He has now hit a home run in two of his last three games, so he is definitely seeing the ball well. I can absolutely see the Twins being more cautious with him and what kind of pitches they give him to hit. Harper has walked in about half of his road games this season (49%), which would imply closer to a +100 odds bet in this case. Given this, plus the slightly above average matchup, +145 is a very good price that we are getting here, and I would consider it great value. We've had some success taking Harper for walks in the past. Let's cash it again here!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins Prop Pick
1 Unit Pick: Bryce Harper to Record a Walk (+145) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins System Projections - July 23rd
MLB ODDS
