Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick: Our Favorite oddschecker+ Positive EV Prop Pick
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick: Our Favorite oddschecker+ Positive EV Prop Pick
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the St. Louis Cardinals tonight in Busch Stadium to kick off a three-game series. The Rays have gone 3–2 over their last five and are now just above .500 at 57–54, which is good for fourth place in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have gone 1–4 over the last five and now sit at 57–56, Sitting in third place right in the middle of a close leaderboard in the NL Central. What should we expect in tonight’s game from the series opener in Busch Stadium?
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: August 6, 2024
- Start Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Click here for the latest Rays vs. Cardinals odds
oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool
For this play, we are going right back to the Positive EV Tool from oddschecker+ that has made us some good money over the last week. Over our six plays since tracking our bets from the Positive EV Tool, we are 3–3 with +4.95 units of profit for a one-unit bettor. The tool has been good to us so far, and it has another play tonight that I like after some research. This bet will be the first strikeout prop we take from the EV tool, and it is Jeffrey Springs to go over 6.5 strikeouts at +480 on the alternate line. The AI tool has this hitting at 37%, which with the implied probability of 17%, gives us 114% +EV at the odds of +480.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick
Jeffrey Springs is coming off a Tommy John surgery after pitching just three starts last year. It is never easy for a picture to recover from Tommy John surgery, and Jeffrey Springs had been pitching some rehab starts to start the year in the minor leagues before making his first appearance of 2024 against Miami last Tuesday. While he only pitched 3.2 innings, his pitch count was 76 and he had hit the mid-80s a few times in the minor leagues, so he should be able to push into the 80s here and possibly even the 90s. Of course, this bet could be scary, backing a pitcher on a potential pitch count to get a high number of strikeouts, but I’m going to the tool in this spot as it has made us some good money so far.
Jeffrey Springs hit 7+ strikeouts in two of his three starts last year, which is a small sample size, but it shows us he can do it when he is on. Previously in his career, Spring has had over one strikeout per inning in each season. In his last healthy season in 2022, springs had 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings, and he also had a 1.07 whip, which is key for getting strikeouts as he can go deeper into games if needed.
I know this is not how the tool is intended, but if you also wanted to take his set line of over 4.5 strikeouts at +102 on FanDuel, I believe that is also a great bet. However, with the EV of 114% using the +EV tool on oddschecker+, I’m going to trust it once again and back this one, knowing Jeffrey can hit seven if his stuff is on tonight.
The Cardinals have been striking out at a 23% rate against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, which is 13th lowest in the league. They also have a very low walk rate of 6% over the last 30 days, meaning Jeffrey should be able to keep his pitch count lower. Take him to hit seven strikeouts at a very high price of +480 tonight.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick
Longshot Pick: Jeffrey Springs 7+ Strikeouts +480 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
1 Unit Pick: Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts +102 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
MLB ODDS
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.