Best MLB Bets Today: HR Picks, Total Bases Bets for Wednesday, May 14
On a slate with plenty of soft-tossing pitchers, what batters should you be looking to bet on? Can Pete Alonso put aside his mini power drought and get to Bailey Falter? How can you fade Antonio Senzatela this time around? Charlie DiSturco discusses all that and more for Wednesday's MLB slate.
Charlie DiSturco
| 5 min
Best MLB Bets Today: HR Picks and Total Bases Bets for Wednesday, May 14
We've got an extremely busy Wednesday slate on the diamond. Not only does every MLB team square off today, but we've got a pair of doubleheaders and plenty of afternoon baseball. This may be the busiest slate of the season thus far.
The best part? There's plenty of pitchers with suspect underlying metrics to fade. We could very well see fireworks all over on this Wednesday May 9. So let's dive right into it with three props to consider adding to this Wednesday slate:
Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this early season MLB deal!
Best MLB Bets Today: Wednesday, May 14
Mild: Jackson Merrill 2+ Total Bases (-120) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Since his return from injury, Jackson Merrill has been nothing short of dominant. He has had 2+ hits in 5-of-6 games, hitting .519 with seven RBI. Last night was Merrill’s first hitless game, but it came with a pair of barrels that unluckily resulted in outs.
Merrill will get a plus matchup on Wednesday night when the soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks takes the mound. Hendricks has made seven starts this season and has a career-worst 14.2 strikeout rate to show for. Normally elite with his control, it’s began to waver a bit, and he’s struggled as a byproduct.
Hendricks has allowed a home run in six of seven starts, making Merrill more than live for a dinger. But we’ll settle for 2+ bases here as the mild pick. Normally a ground ball pitcher, Hendricks actually ranks below league average this season.
You typically want to target lefties against Hendricks, though I wouldn’t blame you if you took a handful of Padres here. Last season, the 35-year-old righty allowed 13-of-21 HRs (62%) to left-handed hitters, with 28% of all hits going for extra bases.
Given Merrill’s form and the elite underlying metrics – .742 xSLG, 22.2% barrel rate – I’m jumping all over the lefty in this late-night bout.
Medium: Wyatt Langford 2+ Hits (+170) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Antonio Senzatela has been one of the worst starting pitchers this entire season, so I’m happy to find a way to fade him here.
Senzatela has posted a career-low 10.3% strikeout rate and his xBA (.336) ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers. Despite having great control (4.9 BB%), he has really struggled to limit hard contact and generate any success. His xERA of 6.98 continues to be a glaring issue.
The lowest hits Senzatela has allowed this season has been six. But he’s allowed 8+ in 75% of his starts. That’s where I like targeting Langford, who is arguably Texas’ best hitter. He also bats toward the top of the lineup, allowing for the chance of seeing five at-bats tonight.
Langford has been crushing the ball of late, the success just has been minimal. Of the last seven balls hit, four have come off the bat at 101.5 mph or higher. He also crushes 4-seam fastballs (+5 run value), which Senzatela throws 54% of the time.
This is a great matchup for Langford against a pitcher who has struggled to find anything to hold his hat on over the last four years.
Hot: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+410) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
This game may end up being rained out, but it’s hard to pass up a Pete Alonso home run prop when Bailey Falter takes the mound.
Similar to the aforementioned Hendricks, Falter is by no means a high velocity strikeout pitcher. He struggles to generate many swings and misses and looks to pitch to soft contact. Over 40% of his pitches are 4-seam fastballs and oftentimes, they end up in the air.
Falter has actually allowed the worst hard-hit rate of his career (44.5%) and has actually been quite lucky with BABIP (.246 vs. career average of .288). I’m not a believer in Falter and am happy to fade him here.
It’s now been seven games since Alonso has found the bleachers, but there’s nothing in his underlying metrics to suggest him slowing down. Alonso ranks in the 96th percentile or better in barrel rate (18%), hard-hit rate (58.2%), xSLG (.620) and average exit velocity (95 mph).
Against a fly ball pitcher in the middle of his career year, I’m happy to bet on Alonso here. There's a reason why he's tied for fourth in total barrels (22) this season.
MLB ODDS
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
