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The Golden State Warriors will host the New Orleans Pelicans in a Western Conference battle as the teams jockey for playoff seeding. Will the Warriors clamp down on CJ McCollum as they try to improve their spot in the standings? Ben Rajavuori provides his top prop pick in Pelicans vs. Warriors.
ANALYSIS

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors Prop Pick: Can Warriors Shut Down CJ McCollum on Friday Night?

The New Orleans Pelicans stay in California tonight to take on the Golden State Warriors from Chase Center after playing in Sacramento last night and picking up a big road win against the Kings. Last night's win improved the Pelicans record to 48–32 on the season, which is good for sixth in the Western Conference. while the Pelicans cannot move up to fifth, they have to make sure to win these last few games to avoid being in the play-in tournament come Tuesday.

Pelicans vs. Warriors DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: April 12, 2024
  • Start Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

This is a pivotal game for both sides, as the Warriors are fighting for play-in tournament seeding with the Kings and Lakers. The Warriors sit at 45–35 in ninth place currently, but they are tied with both the Lakers and Kings, so these last two games have immense ramifications for the Warriors to decide whether they get to lose two games in the play-in tournament and also will decide home court advantage.

Last night, we faded CJ McCollum in the front end of the back-to-back and he proved us wrong and then some. We took under 24.5 points and he hit 31, going 9–12 from three. It was a massive game from CJ, but I’m going right back to his under tonight, and I am switching to threes. CJ McCollum is having the best stretch from behind the perimeter all season over these last few games. Going 9–12 last night against Sacramento capped off a three-game stretch where McCollum has gone 21–34 from beyond the arc, good for a 61% three-point rate over his last three games. This is an incredibly high mark, even for the best three-point shooters in the league, and especially for McCollum, who has been under 40% the two months before April.

As such, his three-point line is set at 4.5 tonight. This is a number I expect for Curry or DiVincenzo, but I just cannot back McCollum to go over this number even though he has done so in three straight games. McCollum has only hit five threes in 17 of 64 games this season, or 27%.

Going back to last season as well, he is 28–139 to the over on this line, or 20%. McCollum has played the Warriors six times over the past two seasons, and he has not eclipsed 4.5 threes in one of them. In fact, he has not hit more than three threes in any of the six head-to-head meetings.

The Warriors are playing their best defense of the season right now with a lot on the line, and I do not see them giving up threes to a very hot McCollum. Without Brandon Ingram, the Warriors' defense will clamp down on McCollum and keep him below five threes tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

Pick: CJ McCollum Under 4.5 Three's (-130) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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