San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for WCC Tournament Semifinal

The Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-8) and the San Francisco Dons (24-8) square off tonight in a semifinal showdown in the WCC Tournament out in Las Vegas.

Gonzaga is 2-0 against USF on the season. The first matchup in Spokane was tied at halftime, but the Zags turned things up offensively after the break and took it 88-77. Then, eight days ago at the Chase Center, the Bulldogs led by 15 at half and went on to win 95-75.

A key takeaway from that last matchup is San Francisco's disrespect of Gonzaga’s Ben Gregg, leaving him unguarded on the perimeter for stretches of the game. Gregg is shooting just 28% from deep on the year, but he shot over 37% in his Sophomore and Junior seasons in Spokane. Gregg took advantage and poured in 23 points, just one point shy of his season high.

It's also critical to note that San Francisco will be without second leading scorer Marcus Williams tonight because of an NCAA rules violation. He scored 28 points on March 1st in that 20 point loss.

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San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Odds

San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: March 10, 2025
• Time: 11:30 pm ET
• Where To Watch: ESPN2

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San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Prediction

I’m a huge Gonzaga believer. They were my preseason title pick. Yes, things haven’t gone fully to plan with eight losses on the season and some poor performances late in close games, but this team is ranked 8th on KenPom for a reason.

Mark Few is still one of the absolute best coaches in the country. Offensively, the Zags are elite, with maestro point guard Ryan Nembhard pulling the strings. Graham Ike is one of the most skilled low-post scorers in the country. That two-man game supplemented by the shooting and creation ability from Nolan Hickman, Khalif Battle, and Ben Gregg creates an incredibly difficult offensive attack to guard.

USF kept things competitive in that first matchup, but when both teams were able to make adjustments for the rematch in the Bay Area, Gonzaga fully outclassed them and sent a message.

San Francisco is 355th nationally across the last two months in 2P% defense, while Gonzaga is 8th-best nationally over the course of the year shooting 58% inside the arc. It’s a clear mismatch. To remain competitive here, San Francisco is going to need to keep pace with this high-powered offense, and hope for poor 3-pt shooting from the Bulldogs. Which is the main strong point of this USF defense, as they are 4th-nationally, allowing opponents to shoot just 28.5% from deep on the year.

Will San Francisco be able to keep up and score the likely 70-80 points they likely would need to to cover here? Malik Thomas, Tyrone Riley, and Ryan Beasley (who exploded for a career high 29 points last night in the win over Washington State) form a really good backcourt that can definitely get buckets. But without Williams, considering the results of the first two matchups, it’s hard to imagine the Dons giving the Zags a real scare tonight.

Plus, the Zags have really turned their defense up a notch. Since January 20th, Gonzaga is 8th in the country in 2P% defense and 18th in overall defensive efficiency.

While it definitely would be my lean, 14.5 feels about right and I’m not jumping to lay that many points. The angle I’d prefer is Gonzaga Team Total Over 84.5, as I’m really confident in their ability to generate good looks around the rim and for this game to be played with pace. The Zags scored 88 and 95 in their two earlier wins vs. the Dons, and 84.5 feels like a really good price.

San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Pick

• Pick: Gonzaga Team Total Over 84.5 (-110) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!