Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for WCC Tournament Championship

The Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-8) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (28-4) battle for the WCC crown once again tonight in Las Vegas. Randy Bennett’s group swept the regular season vs. Mark Few, winning 62-58 at home and 74-67 on the road.

St. Mary’s of course is an elite offensive rebounding team (2nd best in the country). The Gaels found success against the Bulldogs on the offensive glass, grabbing 16 and 14 in those first two matchups. Another data point that stands out from the first two matchups is the key role freshman guard Mikey Lewis played off the bench. Bennett refuses to let Lewis to start and play big minutes which I personally would love to see, but he has let him cook against the Zags. Lewis scored 16 and 18 points in the two Ws, and was letting it rip, shooting 9-19 combined from beyond the arc.

Gonzaga’s Graham Ike found success from the field against this stifling Gales interior defense in both matchups, scoring 24 and 18 in the two losses.

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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Odds

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: March 11, 2025
• Time: 9:00 pm ET
• Where To Watch: ESPN

Click here for latest Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Odds

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Prediction

A 3.5 spread is a little pricier than I would’ve expected here…. Sure, the metrics prefer Gonzaga, but only slightly. The KenPom projection is 72-70, meaning the total has been brought down by four points in what should be a highly competitive and gritty WCC Championship game between these two rivals.

The revenge element feels like it’s been overbaked into the price. Gonzaga shouldn’t be laying 3.5 here.

I’m trying not to let the mythical adage that “it’s hard to beat a team thrice in a season” cloud over my judgement a bit for this. But is Mark Few really going to lose AGAIN to St. Mary’s?

Bennett has taken four of the last five matchups vs. Few, including last season's WCC Championship game. The one game that Gonzaga has gotten in the last two seasons was the season finale in Moraga, the Bulldogs only committed 5 turnovers, and the Gaels shot 14-41 on 2-pointers, and 5-9 from the FT line. While still grabbing 17 offensive rebounds to cap it off.

In the chess match between these two coaches, Few has struggled to crack the code as of late, because personnel wise, it’s just hard for the Zags to keep St. Mary’s off the offensive glass. It’s such a consistent place for them to win. It’s hard for Gonzaga to get out and run because of St. Mary’s pace and discipline. On the offensive end it’s never sexy for the Gaels, but they get more shot attempts than the other team every game and that’s why they are so good.

Graham Ike should continue to eat, and Nembhard will get guys like Hickman/Battle/Gregg in advantageous positions, but they are going to have to execute at a super high level offensively to pull away here. Battle to me is the x-factor, and if he can heat up, that should give the Zags enough of a boost to outscore the Gaels. He only scored two points and eight points respectively in the first two matchups.

However, getting 3.5 points with St. Mary’s feels like the correct play, so that is my lean. I won’t be betting this game, as it feels like a true toss up, and I’m heavily invested into Gonzaga futures and I want them to win to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding.

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Pick

• Pick Lean: Saint Mary's +3.5 (-110) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!