Boise State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for Mountain West Tournament Semifinal

The New Mexico Lobos (26-6) and the Boise State Broncos (23-9) face off for the third time this season tonight in the Mountain West Tournament Semifinals in Las Vegas.

• The Broncos and Lobos split the regular season series with each team defending home court. New Mexico smacked Boise at the Pit on January 17th, winning 84-65, and led 48-21 at halftime.
• In Boise a month later, the Broncos won 86-78, maintaining a double digit lead for most of the second half.
• So Leon Rice’s crew won three of the four halves of basketball in the regular season…

Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $9.99. Don't miss out on this March Madness deal!

Boise State vs. New Mexico Odds

Boise State vs. New Mexico Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: March 14, 2025
• Time: 9:30 pm ET
• Where To Watch: CBS Sports Network

Click here for latest Boise State vs. New Mexico Odds

Boise State vs. New Mexico Prediction

New Mexico is 18th this season on KenPom defensively. They are great on that side of the ball, but not as good as San Diego State (12th), who Boise just beat yesterday. After a rough start in yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup where they really struggled to initiate offense, Boise was able to dig in in that second half and generate better shots. They got back to playing through Degenhart, crashed the offensive glass, and Alvaro Cardenas really stepped up with some big 3s. 

BJ Davis and Nick Boyd were all up in Cardenas’ grill yesterday, making life hell for him whenever he had the ball. That’s really tough to deal with, and I thought he dealt with the ball pressure pretty well. Donovan Dent is a good defender, but he has to spend so much energy offensively, that he isn’t able to be nearly as much of a pest as those Aztec guards in my opinion. When Cardenas isn't in jail like that and Boise can get into their stuff more, Degenhart can cook and everything else opens up.

Defensively, I like how Boise has a few different big bodies to throw at Nelly Junior Joseph. He won't be able to bully this Boise frontcourt like he can in other matchups. He's also a bad free throw shooter, and this whole Lobos team struggles there (68.3%).

Dent is a stud - he'll get his in this game, but I'm not that impressed with New Mexico's offense outside of him (79th in KP). Their 3P rate is super low (333rd), so when they aren't able to control tempo and run (tough to do against Boise) they can go on droughts and rely too much on Dent.

I'm loving the vibes from Boise, I think they are the more complete team and I like the way they matchup here. Those of you who read my article yesterday cashed with me. Let’s run it back!

Boise State vs. New Mexico Pick

• Pick: Boise State ML +105 Get oddschecker+ right now for just $9.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!