Drake vs. Missouri Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, Latest March Madness Odds for Round of 64
No. 6 seed Missouri has been struggling to end the season and looks to avoid a Round of 64 exit as the Tigers take on No. 11-seeded Drake in its first season under head coach Ben McCollum. Can the Tigers keep the pace high and shut down Bennett Stirtz in the process? Charlie DiSturco discusses the keys to the game in his Drake vs. Missouri prediction for NCAA Tournament Round of 64.
Charlie DiSturco - March 20, 2025, 12:30 PM EDT
6 minDrake vs. Missouri Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, Latest March Madness Odds for Round of 64
In what continues to be a popular underdog spot backed by the public, No. 11-seeded Drake looks to put its struggles in the NCAA Tournament aside when it takes on No. 6-seeded Missouri (-6.5) in the Round of 64 on Thursday.
This is the third-straight year in which the Bulldogs have won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, though its the first under new head coach Ben McCollum. Bringing over Bennett Stirtz to Des Moines has given Drake an elite scorer, stepping right into the footsteps of Tucker DeVries.
Stirtz takes nearly 28% of all shots when on the floor and has an elite assist rate. Drake goes as their superstar does and it's resulted in an efficient offense that thrives on drawing fouls and creating plenty of second-chance opportunities. Look for Missouri to combat this by pressuring Stirtz often and forcing the ball out of his hands. So long as Mark Mitchell can hold his own in the pick-and-roll situations defensively, Drake should struggle to find efficient looks.
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Drake vs. Missouri Odds
Drake vs. Missouri Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: March 20, 2025
- Time: 7:35 pm ET
- Where To Watch: TruTV
Click here for latest Drake vs. Missouri Odds
Drake vs. Missouri Prediction
This game features the likes of two very contrasting styles. Drake looks to slow the game to a halt as seen in their 364th-ranked tempo. The Bulldogs look to lessen possessions and use enough clock and its defense - 46th in adjust efficiency, 10th in TO% - to slowly suffocate their opponents.
Missouri is the complete opposite. This is a fast-paced offense that loves to push transition. The Tigers are elite at drawing fouls and are a smart, veteran-led team. They don't turn the ball over, create second-chance opportunities at a high rate and rank inside the top 20 in 2-point offense.
That'll be the determinant factor here. Missouri does not mind shooting from the perimeter, but against a smaller Drake team, it would be wise to attack downhill early and often. Mitchell should return after missing the SEC quarterfinals vs. Florida and should command the paint. He is a foul-drawing machine and extremely efficient around the rim (56.4%).
Altogether, the athleticism advantage is in favor of Missouri. The Tigers can pick their 1-on-1s and take advantage. But will they be able to use their speed and physicality to win the rebound game? That's a huge question for a Drake team that is super disciplined and ranks 17th in offensive rebounding rate and 24th on the defensive glass.
Win the battle on the glass and Drake should crumble. This is not a team that plays fast and from behind often. It's a slow, methodical offense doing whatever it can to open the floor for Stirtz. This is not a dominant Drake offense by any means (76th in adjusted efficiency, per Kenpom), but the Missouri defense also has its own struggles (high foul rate, 300th in defensive rebounding).
Ultimately, I expect Missouri's athleticism and ball pressure to give Drake fits, leading to plenty of struggles for Stirtz and the Bulldogs. Can he be a Cinderella darling? Absolutely. But we've seen how Drake has struggled with the lack of athleticism department before. While Missouri has not looked as sharp of late, this is still the No. 6 offense in terms of efficiency and a team that is both deep and experienced.
While their inconsistencies will ultimately be the downfall of the Tigers, it shouldn't come against the Bulldogs. I like Missouri to make a statement here in the Round of 64.
Drake vs. Missouri Pick
- Pick: Missouri -6.5 (-110) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!
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