March Madness First Round Upset Pick: Can Max Shulga, VCU Surprise 6-Seed BYU in Round of 64?
The No. 6-seeded BYU Cougars (-3.5) look to avoid an early upset at the hands of an A-10 team for the second straight season as the No. 11-seeded VCU Rams head to Denver in this Round of 64 matchup. Can Max Shulga and the Rams pull it off in the opener? Charlie DiSturco thinks they have a shot, and explains why in his March Madness First Round Upset Pick for VCU vs. BYU.
Charlie DiSturco - March 20, 2025, 9:00 AM EDT
6 minMarch Madness First Round Upset Pick: Can Max Shulga, VCU Surprise 6-Seed BYU in Round of 64?
A bit of Déjà vu for No. 6 seed BYU as they take the short trip to Denver to take on No. 11 seed VCU in the Round of 64 on Thursday. It's another A-10 matchup on the horizon for the Cougars, who ultimately fell short against Duquesne in last season's tournament.
Granted, this is a different team than Mark Pope's squad last season. New head coach Kevin Young makes his way from the NBA and has been nothing short of excellent in his first season at the helm. The Cougars ended the regular season on an eight-game win streak, and finished as the No. 11 offense in terms of efficiency, per Kenpom.
This is a deep BYU roster that attacks through 6-foot-9 freshman Egor Demin. He is second in the Big 12 in terms of assist rate (36.6%), using his physicality to drive and kick to the outside. As a whole, that's become the style of offense for BYU, operating through Demin and Dallin Hall. The Cougars attempt 48.3% of their shots from 3 and convert at an extremely high clip (37.1%, 33rd).
This is a methodical offense and one that is extremely efficient out of the halfcourt. They've withstood the physicality of the Big 12 and have multiple impressive wins (Arizona, Iowa State 2x). But their biggest issue could be an ultimate downfall for the Cougars, who can at times struggle against high-intensity defenses.
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VCU vs. BYU Odds
VCU vs. BYU Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: March 20, 2025
- Time: 4:05 pm ET
- Where To Watch: TNT
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VCU vs. BYU Prediction
That is exactly what Ryan Odom's Rams bring to the table. VCU is No. 1 in eFG% and forces turnovers on nearly a fifth of all possessions. The Rams are a press-happy squad, forcing quick passes and late shot-clock situations. That could be an issue for BYU has ran into issues holding onto the basketball (207th in TO%).
Tack on the length and physicality once set on the defensive end, and VCU is a disruptor. The Rams are happy to overextend and double on opposing ball handlers given its rim protection that has been nothing short of dominant (4th in 2-point defense). The presence of Luke Bamgboye - 15% block rate, 2nd in country - is a huge deterrent.
The big question remains can VCU find similar success overpowering an opponent like BYU, who has been battle tested in the Big 12, like it did its lesser A-10 foes? I am optimistic in thinking so and trust Odom to have the Rams ready.
On the offensive end, there could be some speed bumps. Max Shulga has really come into his own and has solidified himself as an elite shot creator, but the Rams offense as a whole struggles from 3. Like BYU, this team shoots nearly half its attempts from the perimeter. Unlike the Cougars, VCU is 33.5% from beyond the arc this season (189th).
BYU is going to allow VCU to shoot a bevy of 3s. Opponents take nearly half its attempts from beyond the arc against the Cougars, so finding a rhythm will be key here for Joe Bamisile, Shulga and co.
This is a game of contrasting identities. BYU's defensive scheme allows for efficiency on the defensive glass - which is where VCU often takes advantage (12th in o-reb%). Taking away second-chance opportunities is key for the Cougars in what could be a grinder of a game.
This is as fascinating a Round of 64 matchup we'll get between two coaches that are quickly rising the ranks in college basketball. Ultimately, I expect this to go down to the wire with VCU's physicality being the difference. I am happy to bet the Rams here getting 3+ points despite their travels to altitude. Don't be surprised to even see the Rams pull off a couple upsets and find themselves in the second weekend.
VCU vs. BYU Pick
- Pick: VCU +3.5 (-115) Get oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99 per month. Don't miss out on this first month deal!
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