Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Prediction: Will Cyclones Struggle Without Keshon Gilbert in Second Round?
Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Prediction: Will Cyclones Struggle Without Keshon Gilbert in Second Round?
The SEC and Big 12 collide during Sunday night's Round of 32 matchup between 6-seed Ole Miss against 3-seed Iowa State in the South Region. Oddsmakers are laying -5.5 with the Cyclones, with the current point total set to 144.5.
The Rebels built a big 1st half lead against North Carolina in the First Round, holding on during the Tar Heels' late push to win outright as an underdog. Meanwhile, Iowa State's dominant 82-55 win against 14-seed Lipscomb saw the Cyclones dominate their mid-major opponent, shooting 58 percent from the field.
NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his favorite bet to place on this Round of 32 matchup between Ole Miss and Iowa State, using the latest odds. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during March Madness.
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Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Odds
- Spread: Ole Miss +5.5 (-106), Iowa State -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Ole Miss (+198), Iowa State (-225)
- Total: Over 144.5 (-105), Under 144.5 (-108)
Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 23, 2025
- Time: 7:45 PM ET
- How to Watch: truTV
Click here for latest Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Odds
Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Prediction
Since opening lines were set, the point spread has fluctuated between -5.5 and -4.5 on Iowa State, returning to -5.5 at its current price. The point total has moved down one point from 145.5 to 144.5.
Iowa State's defense is the real deal. The Cyclones rank 16th in defensive rating (96.0) and held opponents to an average of 67.7 points per game this season, ranked 54th in the nation. Ole Miss is an offensive-oriented roster under head coach Chris Beard, averaging 77.0 points per game.
The SEC and Big Ten have dominated the NCAA Tournament thus far. The Big 12 still has five teams in contention for a National Championship, so there's no longer a big gap between roster talent for Iowa State to exploit like they did against their mid-major opponent in the First Round.
The Rebels are a well-balanced team, with G Sean Pedulla leading all scorers with 15 points per game. Ole Miss has five other players averaging 10.5 points per game, while 6-9 F Malik Dia and G Dre Davis each combine for over 10 rebounds per game.
Iowa State's offense gets overshadowed by its defense but it's still a quality unit on the floor. The Cyclones averaged 80.4 points per game this season, ranked 34th in the nation. Iowa State's ranked 44th in offensive rating (114.1) compared to Ole Miss at 114th (110.2).
True shooting percentage, a metric that measures a team's efficiency with two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws, shows a big separation between Iowa State and Ole Miss. The Rebels rank 165th at 54.9%, while the Cyclones are in a different tier at 29th with a 58.6 percent true shooting rate.
Total rebound percentage is also owned by Iowa State, ranked 62nd at 52.9%, while Ole Miss is near the bottom of all Division I programs, ranked 337th at 46.9%. This means the Cyclones should dominate the glass, likely with top rebounder F Joshua Jefferson, averaging 7.4 rebounds per game.
The Rebels nearly blew an 18-point halftime lead to UNC in their First Round game, scoring only 27 points in the 2nd half. Ole Miss has some quality wins while playing in a conference like the SEC, including over Tennessee and Arkansas in March. Losses against a pair of 1 seeds, Florida and Auburn, are justified.
Iowa State's defense is going to clamp down on Ole Miss' offense, making them earn every bucket. The Cyclones' last three losses came against 1 seed Houston by nine points, an ugly six-point loss to Oklahoma State, and back-to-back losses facing red-hot BYU.
I predict a low-scoring, physical game between these two opponents on Sunday night. These teams have combined to go under 144.5 in five of their previous six games played, so let's bet a unit on under 144.5 total points.
Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Pick
- Pick: Under 144.5 (-108) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Ole Miss vs. Iowa State odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.