Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Prediction: Can Gaels Slow Down Mark Sears, Tide in March Madness Round of 32?
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Prediction: Can Gaels Slow Down Mark Sears, Tide in March Madness Round of 32?
No. 2 Alabama and No. 7 Saint Mary’s face off today in an interesting clash of styles in Cleveland as the Round of 32 wraps up on Sunday night.
Alabama got a really good fight from No. 15 seed Robert Morris in their first-round game, holding on to win 90-81. The Colonials even led by one point with under eight minutes to go, but the Tide pulled it together and finished strong. Mark Sears picked up right where he left off last March, going for 22 points and 10 assists in the win.
Saint Mary’s was on the ropes against Vanderbilt in their Round of 64 matchup, but put together a strong second half and was able to eke out a 59-56 victory. The Gaels scored a measly 22 points in the opening period but really locked in defensively after halftime, and some timely shots by Jordan Ross and Augustas Marciulionis led them to victory.
When you bring together the fastest team in the country with the fourth-slowest, it’s quite the mismatch of styles. So what will the tempo look like here?
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Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Odds
- Moneyline: Saint Mary's +210, Alabama -230
- Spread: Saint Mary's +5.5 (-110), Alabama -5.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 149.5 (-115), Under 149.5 (-105)
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date:Â Sunday, March 23, 2024
- Game Time:Â 6:10 PM ET
- Where to Watch:Â TNT
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Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Prediction
Alabama’s floor spacing and guard creation are as good as it gets, so it’s hard to imagine they won’t be able to score even against this lockdown Gaels defense (7th in defensive efficiency on KenPom). Saint Mary’s two massive big men, Mitchell Saxen and Harry Wessels, could struggle to guard on the perimeter. Against Vanderbilt, Randy Bennett adjusted and started switching ball-screen action against Vandy’s five-out offense, and it worked. I love Vandy’s guards, but Alabama’s players are on another level offensively. I don’t think the switching will work as well.
On the other end of the floor, Saxen and Wessels could find success on the low block and the offensive glass. Alabama isn’t nearly as good as Vanderbilt at forcing turnovers—in fact, they are 350th in defensive turnover percentage. I don’t see a world where Saint Mary’s offensive possessions are quick, so even if Alabama wants to run off of misses, I still expect this game to be played much more in the halfcourt.
Saint Mary’s is just too poor of a shooting team (176th in effective FG%), so at the end of the day, I don’t see how they can score enough to keep up with Alabama, even if the Tide only scores 75. My favorite angle here, though, is the first-half under 70.5. I’m cool with betting against the Gaels' offense, and I can envision it taking time for Alabama to figure out how to best attack this defense.
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Pick
- Pick: 1H Under 70.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Saint Mary's vs. Alabama odds
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