Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kamaru Usman Prediction: Can Usman Win his Middleweight Debut at UFC 294?

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kamaru Usman Prediction: Can Usman Win his Middleweight Debut at UFC 294?

This weekend's UFC card was thrown for a loop when both the main and co-main event had fighters pull out. Charles Oliveira was the first with a cut over his eye, then Paulo Costa pulled out of the co-main event against Khamzat Chimaev with a staph infection in his elbow. Now Kamaru Usman steps up in weight to make his middleweight debut after a dominant run at welterweight. When this fight was first announced, the entire MMA world went crazy, and for good reason. This matchup is even better than the original fight, but the odds suggest a lopsided win for Khamzat, as the UAE native is a -350 favorite.

Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: October 21, 2023
• Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: PPV

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kamaru Usman Prediction

Khamzat Chimaev burst onto the UFC scene, making an impact on both the middleweight and welterweight divisions. Chimaev's wrestling prowess is nothing short of extraordinary. Pound for pound, Chimaev is arguably the best wrestling and top game in the UFC, if not all of MMA. His approach is relentless, always opting for a double-leg takedown, regardless of the opposition. His plan is clear: secure that takedown and dictate the course of the fight.

However, as dominant as Chimaev is on the ground, this fight will inevitably come down to the stand-up, much like his only true test in the UFC against Gilbert Burns. On the feet, Chimaev is beatable, as evidenced by Burns rocking him at the end of the second round. Facing a powerhouse like Kamaru Usman, Chimaev will have to be extra cautious. Usman racked up three knockouts in his five title defenses at welterweight, and with some extra weight in the octagon, Usman should be even more powerful. When it comes to sheer power, Usman holds a distinct advantage in this fight.

Chimaev boasts impressive stats, with 7.3 significant strikes landed per minute and 3.98 takedowns per fifteen minutes. He currently holds a perfect record of 12-0, with six knockouts and five submissions to his name.

Kamaru Usman, the former welterweight king, is known for power in his fists and a dominant wrestling gameplan when it isn't going well on the feet, or just when wants to switch it up. Both fighters are excellent wrestlers, making this an interesting chess match of fight styles.

One aspect of this fight that I find interesting is the size difference. Chimaev is clearly a bit bigger in his frame, although Usman actually has a one-inch reach advantage. Still, the difference in frame gives Chimaev a slight advantage in clinch exchanges, and being the bigger man in the octagon will always pay off in a wrestling affair.

With that, Usman will also have to adjust to a three round fight. He has fought in five round fights nine times in a row now in championships, and this will be his first time going just three rounds in five years. That may change his approach in the fight, as he does not have to pace for five rounds. Maybe that will have a positive impact, but it will also be an adjustment he has to make in his usual game plan.

With Usman stepping up in weight on short notice, and Khamzat having a full camp, I have to go with Chimaev here. Maybe if the circumstances were different, I would give Usman better odds, but I expect Chiamev to come out explosive and take care of business early. Usman has only been finished twice in his career, but he is now 36 years old, and Chimaev is a monster. I like Chimaev to get it done inside the distance.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kamaru Usman Pick

Pick: Khamzat Chimaev Wins Inside the Distance -120 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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