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Sean O'Malley will look to avenge his only career UFC loss to Marlon Vera on Saturday night. Can the superstar get revenge for the 2020 bout that ruined his perfect record? Ben Rajavuori breaks down the matchup and provides his best bet for Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2 at UFC 299.

Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2 Prediction: Can O'Malley Win the Rematch At UFC 299?

The UFC is back with a bang this weekend at UFC 299, which will go down in Miami, Florida on Saturday night, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. Eastern Time. The main event headlines a rematch between the bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and the challenger Marlon “Chito “Vera. O’Malley is a very respectable -260 favorite in the rematch after losing the first matchup back in 2020. Can he even the series?


  • Date: Saturday, March 9, 2024
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Odds

  • Moneyline Odds: O’Malley (-265), Vera (+240)
  • Over Round Odds: O 4.5 (-145), U 4.5 (+120)
  • Will Fight Go the Distance?: Yes (-118), No (+110)

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Prediction

While Sean O’Malley did lose the first matchup, it’s very important to point out how. The two were trading back-and-forth in the first round with Chito landing a few good shots and a few good leg kicks. One of those leg kicks may have stung something in O’Malley because he fell with an injury to his leg and could not continue with 20 seconds left in the first round. While people speculate whether Chito caused the injury or not, the fact of the matter is that O’Malley was injured in the first fight and we did not get a full fight between the two.

That loss serves as the only loss that O’Malley has sustained in his career. He is a perfect 17–0 outside of that fight against Chito, including an 8–1 record in the UFC. O’Malley‘s most recent fight saw him fighting for the belt against then-champion Aljamain Sterling, with O’Malley landing a beautiful knockout in the second round. Marlon Vera has gotten to this spot of fighting for the belt after going 4-1 over his last five fights, and most recently beating Pedro Munhoz. Marlon Vera is widely regarded as one of the most durable fighters in the bantamweight division and he is a very well-rounded fighter with a solid grappling and striking game. He also utilizes kicks very well, which was highlighted in the first meaning, as he landed several leg kicks early in the first round against O’Malley. In the first fight, the odds were very similar to this fight, as O’Malley was -250 in the first meeting. The odds haven’t moved much, which is an interesting thing to note, given that O’Malley is now the champion and Vera is the challenger. Overall, I think O’Malley will have enough volume to outscore Vera and win rounds. However, Vera does have the better cardio, so he will most likely be the fresher fighter in the championship rounds. I think O’Malley can win the first three rounds on his volume alone, and potentially win the fourth as well. Therefore, I think the best bet in this fight is to take O’Malley winning by decision. I have seen a lot of knockout predictions, but Chitto vera is an extremely durable fighter who has never been finished in his professional MMA career. He’s just too damn durable. O’Malley by decision.

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Pick

Pick: Sean O’Malley by Decision (+125) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds


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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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