Texas vs. Baylor Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Quinn Ewers, Texas Dominate Again?
Two Power 5 programs in the Lone Star State are set to play on Saturday night as the Texas Longhorns face the Baylor Bears. Will Quinn Ewers and Texas dominate again? College Football analyst Matthew MacKay shares his Texas vs. Baylor prediction.
Matt MacKay - September 18, 2023, 12:25 PM EDT
7 minTexas vs. Baylor Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Quinn Ewers, Texas Dominate Again?
Two Power 5 programs in the Lone Star State are set to play on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, as the No. 3 Texas Longhorns face the 1-2 Baylor Bears. The Bears lost quarterback Blake Shapen back in Week 1 with a knee injury, leaving them with sophomore Sawyer Robinson, who transferred from Mississippi State this offseason.
We all watched Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers dominate Alabama's secondary with a blend of mobility and big-arm talent, dialing up aggressive passes downfield to rack up touchdowns and keep the Crimson Tide from mounting a late-game comeback in Week 2. The Longhorns have proved that they may finally be back, with help from head coach Steve Sarkisian, who is one of the most creative play-callers in all of college football.
Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson's departure to the NFL has not impacted the Longhorns' backfield nearly as much as others expected, with RB1 Jonathan Brooks generating 5.8 YPC. Xavier Worthy looks the part of an alpha WR1, plus Texas' defense has improved over the offseason, holding all three of its opponents to a combined score of 44 total points through three games. Remember, this includes a road win in Tuscaloosa over Alabama, so the Longhorns are now in the driver's seat to make their first College Football Playoff appearance unless they stumble along the way.
A night game in Waco could be a trap matchup for the Longhorns, but their schedule is among the easiest remaining in college football, with the only ranked team left coming in Week 6 against the No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry at a neutral site.
Oddsmakers expect the Longhorns to take care of business, as they are laying 14.5 points on the road against a Baylor offense still playing without its top quarterback. The point total line is set at 51.5, which is a number each of these teams has only exceeded once through the first three weeks of the 2023 season.
Will Ewers and the Longhorns avoid an upset and manage to cover as 14.5-point favorites on the road against Baylor? Or will the Bears play spoiler to salvage a 1-2 start to their season? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his latest prediction and pick to make for this Big 12 primetime matchup.
Texas vs. Baylor Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023
- Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
Texas vs. Baylor Odds
- Spread: Texas -14.5 (-105), Baylor +14.5 (-108)
- Total Odds: Over 51.5 (-110) Under 51.5 (-108)
- Moneyline Odds: Texas (-650), Baylor (+525)
Texas vs. Baylor Injury Report
TEXAS
Questionable: RB CJ Baxter (Ribs)
Out: N/A
BAYLOR
Questionable: RB Dominic Richardson (Ankle)
Out: QB Blake Shapen (Knee)
Texas vs. Baylor Prediction
Recent head-to-head matchups have seen each of these teams trade outright wins dating back to 2019, with Baylor winning both previous home matchups straight up. However, the Bears were favored in both of those games, while they are now double-digit home underdogs ATS for the first time.
It makes sense for oddsmakers to be low on Baylor in this game. The Bears lost to Texas State, a Sun Belt program, by 11 points in Week 1 at home, then blew a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter once again in Waco, letting Utah score 14 unanswered points down the stretch. A win against Long Island University improved Baylor's win-column results, but their offense is stale, and the defense is mediocre at best.
Baylor head coach, Dave Aranda, led the Bears to a 12-2 season in 2021, including a win in the Sugar Bowl, but the program has regressed since then, going 6-7 last year and starting off 1-2 with a couple of sloppy performances. Playing with an inexperienced quarterback is the icing on top of the proverbial cake for Texas' defense, which looks to be the best personnel since Sarkisian's arrival in 2021.
The Longhorns have made strides under Sarkisian each year, going from 5-7 to 8-5, and now sitting 3-0 with a soft schedule in front of them. Texas needs to keep its foot on the gas pedal to avoid an upset here, but I don't think they will be challenged much by Baylor in this game.
The point total is set at 51.5, which has gone over during two consecutive games between these opponents. Prior to that, however, the point total went well under 52 points, but two of those games were without Sarkisian calling plays with Ewers as his signal caller. The spread is interesting at -14.5. Texas has failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in two of the past five matchups, but they did cover with one point to spare in Austin last season.
Baylor could wind up covering here, so to play it safe, let's bet the over 51.5-point total set at FanDuel Sportsbook. Yes, both teams have only reached 52 total points once in each of their three games played this season, but Texas could score 52 points by themselves this weekend in Waco. A final score of 42-10 or 51-6 seems likely, which puts us where we want to be betting on the over in what projects to be a lopsided win by the Longhorns.
Texas vs. Baylor Pick
- Pick: Over 51.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
College Football Odds
