Appalachian State vs. Troy Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Joey Aguilar, Mountaineers Win Sun Belt Championship?
Appalachian State takes on Troy in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon? Can Joey Aguilar and the Mountaineers win it? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay shares his prediction and pick for the Appalachian State vs. Troy game.
Matt MacKay - November 27, 2023, 11:32 AM EST
5 minAppalachian State vs. Troy Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Joey Aguilar, Mountaineers Win Sun Belt Championship?
The Sun Belt Championship game gives us 8-4 Appalachian State vs. 10-2 Troy live from Troy's home stadium in Troy, Alabama, on Saturday afternoon.
Appalachian State just earned their biggest win of the season in a 26-23 overtime thriller against previously undefeated James Madison, carrying this momentum into a dominant 55-27 win over Georgia Southern in its final game of the regular season. The Mountaineers are averaging over 35 points per game this season, while allowing over 26 points per game on defense. Conversely, the Troy Trojans are stout on defense, ranked 10th in the FBS, allowing 16.7 points per game, while scoring 29.7 points per game, ranked 54th out of 133 FBS programs.
Troy is 7-1 within the Sun Belt conference this year, losing to James Madison earlier in the year, 16-14, rallying to win nine straight games leading into a home game for the conference championship against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers' four losses all came earlier in the year, losing all four games by one possession. It's a group battle tested and not afraid of adversity, so this should make for a compelling conference championship game down in Troy, Alabama on Saturday afternoon.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay shares his latest prediction and pick between Appalachian State vs. Troy for the 2023 Sun Belt Conference Championship game.
APPALACHIAN STATE VS. TROY DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Saturday, December 2, 2023
- Game Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
APPALACHIAN STATE VS. TROY ODDS
- Spread: Appalachian State +6.5 (-115), Troy -6.5 (-105)
- Total Odds: Under 51.5 (-115), Over 51.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Appalachian State (+190), Troy (-230)
APPALACHIAN STATE VS. TROY INJURY REPORT
APPALACHIAN STATE
Questionable: QB Ryan Burger (Finger)
Out: NA
TROY
Questionable: NA
Out: NA
APPALACHIAN STATE VS. TROY PREDICTION
Oddsmakers have begun to slim down Appalachian State's odds as an underdog against the spread and on their moneyline odds, bumping them up from +215 moneyline to +188 moneyline odds on FanDuel. The point total line is set to 51.5, which is a number that Troy just cleared by one point in their last game against Southern Miss, 35-17.
Troy has actually logged 52 total points in three consecutive games to end its regular season. Previously, they went 4-0 under 51.5 total points though, so this is a tricky line to wager. Appalachian State has been on fire with its passing attack, recording three to four passing touchdowns in five consecutive games entering this Sun Belt Championship game.
Troy's defense is much more effective against the run than the pass, so expect Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar to continue his frenzied pace through the air, as he's thrown for over 3,200 yards and 33 touchdowns, compared to only nine interceptions this season. The Mountaineers' defense is good against the pass, while the run defense has improved significantly since earlier in the season.
Troy prefers to deploy a balanced offense, experiencing a lot of success in the passing attack. The Mountaineers have been very effective in stopping the pass lately though, allowing only one team to record more than one passing touchdown in its last six games played. In fact, Appalachian State has only surrendered seven total touchdowns across its last four games played.
Let's ride with the underdog outright in this game, as Appalachian State has a better offense and an improved defense, riding off of momentum from an overtime road win over James Madison a couple of weeks ago. We're wagering two units on the Mountaineers' +190 moneyline odds with confidence ahead of Saturday's Sun Belt Conference Championship game.
APPALACHIAN STATE VS. TROY PICK
- Appalachian State Moneyline (+190) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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