SMU vs. Tulane Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Michael Pratt, Green Wave Put Up Points at AAC Championship?
SMU vs. Tulane Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Michael Pratt, Green Wave Put Up Points at AAC Championship?
A non-Power 5 matchup between SMU vs. Tulane is set to take place during the 2023 American Athletic Championship at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana, as the 11-1 Tulane Green Wave host the 10-2 Southern Methodist Mustangs.
Both team are 8-0 in conference play, with the Mustangs brandishing a top-five offense in points per game, averaging 41.8 points this season. Two early losses to Oklahoma and TCU are the only blemishes on SMU's résumé, while the Green Wave also lost their only game to a Power 5 school, losing 37-20 to Ole Miss back in Week 2.
Tulane's 18th in opponent points allowed per game (18.3), while only mustering 27.9 points per game on offense. Either the defense will need to contain the Mustangs' potent offense, equally dangerous on the ground and through the air, or the Green Wave offense will need to be more efficient scoring touchdowns on the ground. Either way, it's going to be a dog fight for both teams. Their last head-to-head meeting in 2022 resulted in Tulane routing SMU 59-24 at home, which is where the AAC Championship will be held on Saturday afternoon.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick for SMU vs. Tulane during the AAC Championship game.
SMU VS. TULANE DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Saturday, December 2, 2023
- Game Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
SMU VS. TULANE ODDS
- Spread: SMU +4.5 (-115), Tulane -4.5 (-105)
- Total Odds: Under 50.5 (-110), Over 50.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: SMU (+146), Tulane (-178)
SMU VS. TULANE INJURY REPORT
SMU
Questionable: QB Preston Stone (Leg), RB Jaylan Knighton (Undisclosed)
Out: WR Jordan Kerley (Knee)
TULANE
Questionable: WR Jha'Quan Jackson (Ankle), WR Lawrence Keys III (Foot),
Out: NA
SMU VS. TULANE PREDICTION
Oddsmakers have this matchup pegged fairly evenly, giving a slight -4.5-point edge to Tulane at home. SMU has been red-hot on offense though, scoring at least 31 points in eight consecutive games, including over 45 in four of their past six outings. The passing attack for the Mustangs is efficient but their run game is where most of the volume resides, recording at least 34 carries in six straight contests.
Tulane's defense specializes in shutting down the run game, allowing only one rushing touchdown in their last three games played. The Green Wave are more vulnerable against the passing attack, allowing over a 63 percent completion rate in three consecutive games, resulting in four touchdown passes.
Both teams are good at forcing turnovers, so this could be a back-and-forth matchup with plenty of momentum swings. Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt is playing well, recording a 66.4 percent completion rate with over 2,100 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to only four interceptions. His play will determine the outcome of this game. SMU allowed two receiving touchdowns in three straight games before facing the one-dimensional Navy offense in its last game of the regular season. Expect Pratt and the Green Wave to take aggressive shots downfield early in this matchup.
Oddsmakers have the point total line set to 50.5. This line could go either way, as Tulane hasn't logged a game at 51 total points in four straight contests. Meanwhile, SMU has gone over 50.5 in six consecutive games. Tulane is laying 4.5 at home, where their only loss of the season came against Ole Miss 37-20. The Mustangs aren't good at defending the run and give up big explosives in the passing attack, while Tulane is also facing an offense that has scored 11 touchdowns in its past two games played, including 58 total touchdowns this season.
The unders have been cashing at Yulman Stadium, but these are two good offenses and the point total line is set too low, so let's wager a unit on over 50.5 total points in this AAC Championship bout.
SMU VS. TULANE PICK
- Over 50.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.