USC vs. Indiana Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, November 14th

USC vs. Indiana Prediction: Are Hoosiers on Upset Alert with Trojans in Town on Saturday?

The USC Trojans (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten) face the Indiana Hoosiers (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, November 14, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on CBS. USC enters following a statement victory over Ohio State, while Indiana returns from its bye week after consecutive overtime victories against Michigan and Minnesota.

Indiana is favored by 8.5 points in the supplied market despite USC's impressive recent performance against another Big Ten contender. The Hoosiers have been outstanding defensively but are dealing with important offensive injuries, creating a potentially competitive matchup against a USC team capable of challenging opponents through explosive passing plays and an improving defense.

USC vs. Indiana Recent Results

USC Trojans (7-2), (4-2 Big Ten)

USC rebounded from its disappointing loss to Wisconsin with an impressive 30-18 victory over No. 2 Ohio State on October 31. The Trojans established an early 14-3 advantage and led 20-9 at halftime, controlling much of the game against one of the nation's strongest programs.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava completed 15 of 22 passes for 222 yards, including a 69-yard touchdown connection with Trent Mosley on USC's opening possession. Mosley finished with five receptions for 101 yards, while running backs King Miller and Waymond Jordan combined for 136 rushing yards.

Defensively, USC limited Ohio State to 18 points and prevented the Buckeyes from reaching the end zone until the fourth quarter. The Trojans consistently forced field-goal attempts in scoring situations, demonstrating important defensive improvement against an opponent with substantial offensive talent.

The victory followed a 24-7 defeat at Wisconsin on October 24, when USC struggled badly to establish its rushing attack. The Trojans finished with minus-17 rushing yards and managed only one touchdown, despite generating 258 passing yards. USC enters Saturday averaging more than 280 passing yards per game behind Maiava, although its offensive production has varied considerably against physical Big Ten defenses.

Indiana Hoosiers (8-1), (5-1 Big Ten)

Indiana defeated Minnesota 23-16 in overtime on October 31, surviving a dramatic finish that required a 60-yard field goal from Paddy McAteer as regulation expired. The Hoosiers trailed 16-13 with 19 seconds remaining before connecting on a long passing play to Charlie Becker, setting up the tying field goal.

Backup quarterback Grant Wilson replaced the injured Josh Hoover during the second half and threw the winning 25-yard touchdown pass to Becker on the opening play of overtime. Becker finished with eight receptions for 149 yards, while Indiana's defense allowed only 215 total yards and recorded 11 tackles for loss.

The Hoosiers previously survived another overtime contest against Michigan, winning 13-6 on October 24. Indiana managed only 212 total yards and 81 passing yards, but its defense limited Michigan to six points and just 57 rushing yards.

Indiana has won two consecutive games despite scoring just 36 combined points across regulation and overtime against Michigan and Minnesota. The Hoosiers' defense continues to perform at an elite level, but their offensive efficiency has declined during this stretch, particularly with Hoover dealing with an injury and the rushing attack facing increased pressure.

USC vs. Indiana Head to Head

• September 18, 1982: USC 28, Indiana 7
• September 19, 1981: USC 21, Indiana 0
• January 1, 1968: USC 14, Indiana 3
• October 2, 1953: USC 27, Indiana 14

USC leads the all-time series 4-0, winning every previous meeting between these programs. The Trojans have held Indiana to 14 points or fewer in all four contests, including a shutout in their 1981 meeting.

Saturday marks the first matchup since 1982 and the first meeting as Big Ten conference opponents. The historical results have little direct relevance to the current handicap, but the conference stakes are significant, with both programs competing for favorable positioning in the Big Ten standings and College Football Playoff race.

USC vs. Indiana Date, Time, Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 14th, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET
• Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
• How to Watch: CBS

USC vs. Indiana Odds

• Spread: USC +8.5 (-105), Indiana -8.5 (-110)
• Total Points: Over 51.5 (-110), Under 51.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: USC (+275), Indiana (-325)

Click here for the latest USC vs. Indiana Odds

USC vs. Indiana Line Movement and Betting Splits

Indiana opened around a 7.5-point favorite before moving toward -9.5 at several sportsbooks, with the supplied market showing -8.5. The movement represents growing respect for the Hoosiers despite USC's victory over Ohio State and Indiana's recent struggles to generate offensive production. The selected +9.5 provides an additional point of protection compared with the supplied market.

Betting activity has leaned heavily toward USC. One Saturday morning market snapshot showed approximately 75% of spread tickets and 70% of the handle backing the Trojans at +9.5. Although USC has attracted most wagers, the broader market has moved toward Indiana from the earlier opening range, creating an interesting contrast between betting volume and line movement.

The total has moved from approximately 49.5 to 51.5, reflecting expectations that both offenses could generate more production than Indiana's recent low-scoring games suggest. However, the Hoosiers' strong defensive front and USC's inconsistent rushing performances create meaningful obstacles to sustained offensive efficiency. The movement beyond a touchdown also makes the selected spread attractive for a game involving two defenses capable of controlling possession.

USC Trojans Injury Report and Team News

• Corey Simms (WR): Out, Undisclosed
• Hayden Treter (OL): Out, Undisclosed
• Kendarius Reddick (S): Out, Undisclosed
• Kilian O'Connor (OL): Out, Undisclosed
• Roman Marchetti (LB): Out, Undisclosed
• Taylor "Taybo" Johnson (LB): Out, Undisclosed
• Terrell Anderson (WR): Out, Undisclosed
• Trestin Castro (S): Out, Lower Body
• Walter Matthews (TE): Game-Time Decision, Undisclosed

USC continues to manage important offensive-line injuries, particularly with Treter and O'Connor unavailable. Freshman Kannon Smith has assumed additional responsibility along the interior, and his performance will be important against Indiana's aggressive defensive front. The Trojans are also missing Anderson and Simms at receiver, increasing the importance of Mosley and the remaining healthy pass catchers.

Defensively, USC is without several contributors across the secondary and linebacker rotation, including Castro and Reddick. However, the expected availability of defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart provides a valuable reinforcement against Indiana's rushing attack. Tight end Mark Bowman has also returned to the offense, giving Maiava another receiving option following his productive performance against Ohio State.

Indiana Hoosiers Injury Report and Team News

• Joe Brunner (OL): Out, Undisclosed
• Kellan Wyatt (DL): Out, Undisclosed
• Rolijah Hardy (LB): Out, Undisclosed
• Turbo Richard (RB): Out, Shoulder
• A.J. Harris (DB): Available, No Game Designation

Indiana's most significant offensive absence is Richard, who leads the team with 745 rushing yards and six touchdowns this season. His injury places additional responsibility on Lee Beebe Jr., who has been effective in the Hoosiers' backfield but will now face an increased workload. The absence of starting right guard Brunner further complicates Indiana's ability to consistently establish its rushing attack against USC.

Hoover has been removed from the availability report following the injury that forced him out of the Minnesota game, suggesting he is available to resume his starting responsibilities. However, his recent injury and Indiana's declining offensive production remain important considerations. Hardy's absence affects linebacker depth, while Harris' availability provides additional reinforcement in the secondary against USC's passing attack.

USC vs. Indiana Prediction

Indiana enters as the favorite because of its defensive strength, home-field advantage and overall consistency under Curt Cignetti. However, the Hoosiers' recent offensive struggles and USC's ability to challenge elite opponents create a much more competitive matchup than a spread approaching double digits might suggest.

The strongest argument for USC is Indiana's inability to generate substantial offensive separation during its last two games. The Hoosiers needed overtime to defeat Michigan 13-6 and Minnesota 23-16, producing just 36 combined points across those contests. Those performances illustrate the difficulty Indiana has experienced sustaining drives against disciplined defensive opponents.

USC's defense has shown meaningful improvement, particularly during its victory over Ohio State. The Trojans limited the Buckeyes to 18 points and prevented them from consistently converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns. That defensive performance is especially important against an Indiana offense now missing its leading rusher and starting right guard.

Richard's absence could significantly change Indiana's offensive structure. The Hoosiers have relied on his explosiveness and ability to generate positive yardage on early downs, creating manageable situations for Hoover. Without him, Indiana may need to depend more heavily on Beebe and the passing attack, potentially limiting its ability to control the clock.

Brunner's injury creates another important challenge. Indiana's offensive line has been a major component of its success under Cignetti, but replacing an experienced starting guard against USC's improving defensive front could create protection problems. The Trojans may be able to generate pressure without consistently committing additional defenders, particularly when Indiana faces obvious passing situations.

Hoover's health also deserves attention. Although the quarterback is expected to be available, his injury interrupted Indiana's victory over Minnesota and forced Wilson into action. Hoover has thrown for 1,860 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, but his ability to operate efficiently against USC's defensive pressure could determine whether Indiana can generate sufficient separation.

USC's offensive ceiling provides another reason to consider the underdog. Maiava has thrown for 2,525 yards this season and remains capable of generating explosive plays through the air. His connection with Mosley produced an immediate 69-yard touchdown against Ohio State, demonstrating the Trojans' ability to score without depending entirely on extended drives.

Indiana's defensive front will undoubtedly create challenges. Tobi Osunanmi has recorded 10 sacks this season, and the Hoosiers have consistently limited opponents' rushing production. USC's offensive-line injuries could make pass protection particularly difficult, especially considering its struggles against Wisconsin. However, Maiava's ability to generate explosive passing plays means USC does not necessarily need to dominate the line of scrimmage to remain competitive.

Another important factor is the projected number of possessions. Indiana has developed a defensive identity built around limiting rushing production, forcing negative plays and controlling field position. That approach can create difficult conditions for opposing offenses, but it can also reduce the number of opportunities available for the favorite to build a substantial margin.

FairPlay AI projects Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite with a 70% win probability, compared with the supplied sportsbook spread of -8.5. At the selected USC +9.5, that creates three points of projected spread value for the Trojans. The model projects 51.5 total points, exactly matching the sportsbook total, suggesting that the spread discrepancy is primarily related to expected competitiveness rather than a major difference in the scoring environment.

The most favorable game script involves USC limiting Indiana's rushing attack, preventing explosive passing plays and keeping the contest within one possession entering the fourth quarter. The Trojans have already demonstrated their ability to challenge high-level opponents through their victory over Ohio State, and Indiana's recent overtime performances suggest another competitive finish is entirely realistic. USC does not need to win outright, and a late offensive possession could become particularly valuable against a spread of 9.5 points.

USC vs. Indiana Best Bet

• Best Bet: USC +9.5 (-115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

USC's explosive passing attack, improving defensive performance and Indiana's offensive injuries create a strong argument for taking the Trojans with nearly double-digit points. The Hoosiers remain the more likely winner, but their consecutive overtime victories against Michigan and Minnesota demonstrate that their defensive strength has not necessarily translated into comfortable winning margins.

The primary concern is Indiana's pass rush overwhelming USC's injured offensive line and creating turnovers that provide short fields. However, the Trojans have demonstrated enough offensive ability to remain competitive against elite opponents, and Indiana's reduced rushing depth could make sustained offensive separation difficult. The selected +9.5 provides valuable protection against a Hoosiers team that has repeatedly been forced into close finishes

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