New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay Picks
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-1 and off to their best start in franchise history. However, the New Orleans Saints are right on their heels in the NFC South at 4-2, and a win by the Saints would pull them even with the Buccaneers in the loss column. New Orleans won the two regular-season meetings with Tampa Bay last year, but the Buccaneers won when it counted, ousting the Saints from the playoffs in the Divisional Round.
Will the New Orleans continue their regular-season dominance of Tampa Bay, or will the Buccaneers put some breathing room between them and the Saints while improving their already franchise-best start to the season? Find out with our three-leg same-game parlay that pays odds of +222.
Same-Game Parlay 1st Leg: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (Alternate Spread)
Our first leg of the same-game parlay is more or less a moneyline wager that the Buccaneers will win this game outright. Tampa Bay has won 14 of their last 15 games dating back to last season, including a 30-20 triumph in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Yes, the Saints won the two regular-season meetings between these teams last year. However, future Hall of Famer Drew Brees and not Jameis Winston was their quarterback, and both of those games came within the first nine weeks of the season when the Buccaneers were still learning how to gel.
Tampa Bay has done plenty of gelling this season, as their 6-1 start is the best in franchise history. The Buccaneers have won two of their last three games by at least 28 points, and they had a 21-point second-half lead over the Eagles in the lone game they did not win by that margin.
The Saints are at a scheduling disadvantage, having played on Monday night at Seattle and then flying back cross country. Though New Orleans is the only team to beat Green Bay this year, none of their other three wins have come against winning teams.
The most concerning statistic for New Orleans entering this game is that they rank 31st in the NFL with a 32% pass rush win rate. If they do not pressure Tom Brady, there is no chance they will win the game.
Same-Game Parlay 2nd Leg: UNDER 58.5 (Alternate Total Points)
Our second leg of the parlay adjusts the original over/under by nine points. These two teams rank in the top ten in the NFL in scoring defense, as they allow a combined 37.8 PPG. And while Tampa Bay is the league's third-highest scoring team averaging 33.3 PPG, New Orleans ranks 17th averaging 17.3. Simply put, we do not think the Saints have enough offensive firepower to make this game a shootout.
Tampa Bay is a defense that thrives on takeaways, as they are +7 (tied for fourth) in turnover margin. While Jameis Winston is usually a turnover-prone quarterback, Sean Payton seems to have fixed those problems, as Winston has just four turnovers through the first six games. However, he is coming off a Monday night performance where he had a career-low 3.6 air yards per completion, which was against the league's worst-ranked defense. That does not bode well for his success against Tampa Bay's stout defense.
If Winston does not threaten to beat the Tampa Bay defense throwing the ball downfield, the Buccaneers will key on running back Alvin Kamara and render him ineffective. With how much New Orleans relies on Kamara, New Orleans will struggle to score points if he has a mediocre game.
The Buccaneers have averaged 40.5 PPG in their four home games but just 23.6 PPG in three road games. The Superdome will be rocking on Sunday and will spur their Saints to a spirited defensive effort.
Same-Game Parlay 3rd Leg: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1-13 Points (4-way Winning Margin)
We already made a case for why Tampa Bay will win the game, but this last leg of our parlay suggests they will not win the game by at least two touchdowns. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in just one of their previous six meetings against the Saints, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints are 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games as home underdogs. So with the point spread being five points, this game should not turn into a Buccaneers blowout.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay Picks
3-Leg Same-Game Parlay Odds (+222): Risk $100 to win $222
- Buccaneers -1.5 (Alternate Spread)
- UNDER 58.5 (Alternate Total Points)
- Buccaneers by 1-13 Points (4-way Winning Margin)
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Buccaneers: Antonio Brown WR (Out), Richard Sherman CB (Questionable), Lavonte Davis LB (Questionable), Jason Pierre-Paul LB (Questionable), Rob Gronkowski TE (Questionable)
Saints: Taysom Hill QB (Out), Deonte Harris WR (Questionable), Dwayne Washington RB (Out), Andrus Peat OT (IR), Payton Turner DE (Out)