Week 4 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 4 of the Season?
Week 3 in the NFL was filled with tons of scoring, big plays, and surprise upsets. How will NFL Week 4 play out? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - September 27, 2023, 1:50 PM EDT
9 minWeek 4 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 4 of the Season?
Week 3 in the NFL was filled with tons of scoring, big plays, and surprise upsets. Last-second wins, blowouts, including 70 points scored by Miami's high-octane offense, and more key injuries demonstrated why the NFL is a week-to-week league.
From a betting standpoint, we crushed it in Week 3, going 3-1 with our four NFL best bets made in last week's edition of this weekly NFL picks article. The only loss came from the Minnesota Vikings, who had several red zone and goal-line opportunities to win the game against the Chargers on their final possession. Otherwise, the 49ers covered as -10.5-point favorites over the Giants on Thursday Night Football and the Falcons vs. Lions game went well under 46.5 total points. Betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers as road underdogs at +120 moneyline odds was the final win on the Week 3 slate, as Kenny Pickett made enough plays to win, backed up by the relentless effort of the Steelers' defense, led by T.J. Watt.
Week 4 lines are out and we're seeing some interesting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Detroit Lions are -1.5 ATS on the road at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers to kick things off on Thursday Night Football. The Miami Dolphins are three-point underdogs for the first time heading into Buffalo, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are finally favored to win a game on the road against an underrated Houston Texans offense.
Only one game has a double-digit favorite ATS, as the 49ers are -14 hosting the scrappy Arizona Cardinals. The other biggest favorite ATS is Kansas City at -9.5 on the road against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football. The two highest point total lines in Week 4 are Miami vs. Buffalo, which is set at 53.5 points, followed by Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles Chargers at 48.5 points.
Week 4 NFL Picks
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
The last time we saw Detroit play in Lambeau Field, they ended Aaron Rodgers' career in Green Bay, pulling off an outright win to upset the Packers in Week 18, keeping Green Bay from advancing to the NFC Wild Card round. The Packers will certainly have revenge on their minds, plus a lot of confidence from erasing a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 3 to improve to 2-1. The Lions have one of the best defensive fronts in the league, while the Packers have one of the strongest offensive line units.
It should be an old-school, smash-mouth game with two run-centric offenses that like to chew clock and rely on their running game to open up the passing attack. Factor in that four of the Lions' last five games have gone under the point total line, including a final score of 20-16 in Week 18 last year, and betting under 45.5 at -105 odds becomes extremely appealing.
Green Bay has only gone under 45.5 once this season, which occurred at home last week against a good New Orleans defense. Detroit has gone under 45.5 points twice thus far, with the only exception occurring during a 38-31 overtime loss at Ford Field in Week 2. We're avoiding the juiced line on over 45.5 points at -115, riding the under in prime time, which tends to dominate. At -105 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let's lock this in as a multi-unit wager to start off with a win on the Week 4 NFL slate.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati hits the road to face a familiar AFC opponent in Nashville, Tennessee, as the Titans are coming off of an embarrassing 27-3 loss against the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals finally seized a win with a hobbled Joe Burrow under center at home against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, but they still have yet to find their offensive rhythm.
Tennessee let the New Orleans Saints escape with a late touchdown in a 16-15 loss in Week 1, before bouncing back with an impressive 27-24 overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2. After the drubbing Cleveland dealt to the Titans in Week 3, it'll be interesting to watch how Tennessee responds against a Bengals defense that ranks ninth in sack percentage. The Titans have arguably the worst offensive line in the league, with a mediocre quarterback, and an aging Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has thrown three interceptions, while the Bengals are ranked seventh in defensive interception percentage.
The Bengals have won four of the last five head-to-head matchups SU against the Titans, while Tennessee has failed to cover the spread at home against AFC North opponents for nine consecutive games. The Bengals are 0-2-1 ATS, while the Titans are 2-1 ATS, so it's safer to bet Cincinnati's moneyline odds at -134 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Despite two quality defenses playing each other in Week 4, oddsmakers have set the Miami vs. Buffalo game at 53.5 total points, which is easily the biggest number on the slate. It makes sense when looking back at past matchups though, plus the high-octane offenses both teams possess.
Eight of Miami's last ten road games have gone over the total points line, easily surpassing 53.5 total points in two consecutive matchups against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Miami just put up 70 points in Week 3, while Buffalo has scored at least 37 points in back-to-back games following the dud they laid against the New York Jets in Week 1.
Buffalo has won nine of its last ten games SU against Miami, plus the Dolphins have lost seven consecutive games at Highmark Stadium. However, Miami has managed to cover the spread against AFC opponents in seven straight games, and they are +3 ATS, making them an underdog for the first time this season.
It's tough to envision a scenario where the Dolphins don't keep the game close with how dynamic and versatile their offense is, paired with an improved defense led by DC Vic Fangio. Instead of picking an outright winner or ATS, which feels like it could go either way on both lines, let's focus on the point total. Sure, eight of Miami's last ten road games have hit the over, but 53.5 points is a lot, especially with how stout the Bills' defense has looked through three games.
Rooting against points isn't as fun as rooting for them, but we're here to cash bets. 24-20 or 27-24 feels like the final score in this AFC East divisional matchup on Sunday, which will cash the under 53.5 at -115 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's place a couple of units on the under in a game that should be the best matchup on the Week 4 slate.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
After winning three in a row over Washington, Philadelphia lost a prime time game at home to the Commanders in Week 10 last year, allowing the Commanders to rack up 32 points in an 11-point win over the Eagles.
Expect Philadelphia to have plenty of motivation to come out with their foot on the gas. It helps to roster a top-five offensive line and defensive line, despite injuries affecting their secondary. Washington quarterback Sam Howell has been getting sacked left and right behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and now he'll face relentless pressure in the pocket against one of the few remaining undefeated teams.
Washington looked solid against Arizona and Denver, but it turns out, both of those teams are several tiers below Philadelphia. The Eagles' run-centric offense, led by D'Andre Swift, paired with explosive wideouts on the perimeter, will be a matchup nightmare for the Commanders, who rank 27th in points allowed. Especially since their run defense allows the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt, which is Philadelphia's entire offensive identity.
Oddsmakers have the lines set at Eagles -8.5, -405 moneyline odds, with a point total set at 44.5. Amongst these three game odds to wager, Eagles -8.5 feels like a massive lock. They are 2-0-1 ATS and just beat a good Tampa Bay defense by 14 points on the road. Meanwhile, Washington is quickly plummeting back to reality with a young, raw quarterback with a defense that has been gashed against the run. Eagles -8.5 is a multi-unit wager we need to lock in at -106 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Week 4 NFL Picks
- Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Under 45.5 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans: Bengals Moneyline (-134) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Under 53.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles -8.5 (-106) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
NFL Odds
