Giants vs. Bears Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 10
The Giants and Bears will battle in a Week 10 NFC clash, as New York tries to turn the season around while Ben Johnson's Chicago team starts to heat up. Can Caleb Williams and the Bears avoid the upset on Sunday? Let's take a look at this Giants vs. Bears prediction for Sunday, November 9th.
OC Staff - November 9, 2025, 8:30 AM EST
5 Minute ReadGiants vs. Bears Prediction: Can Jaxson Dart, Giants Upset Resurgent Bears in Week 10?
The NFL landscape offers a study in contrasts this week as the struggling New York Giants (2-7, #15 in conference, losers of three straight, and winless on the road at 0-5) travel to Soldier Field to face the surging Chicago Bears (5-3, #8 in conference, riding a one-game win streak and boasting a respectable 2-1 home record).
This battle, with playoff implications for Chicago and pride for New York, will hinge on how star quarterbacks and key skill players navigate crucial defensive matchups.
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Giants vs. Bears Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FOX
Giants vs. Bears Odds
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Giants vs. Bears Prediction
The spotlight shines brightest on Bears rookie sensation Caleb Williams, who enters this contest projected for a modest 230.2 passing yards and 0.6 interceptions. Historically, Williams has faced significant challenges against top-10 passing defenses, logging a concerning 61.0 passer rating with zero touchdowns and one interception across two such games, averaging just 169.5 passing yards.
However, the Giants' pass defense, ranked 21st in QB rating allowed and 16th in sacks, does not present a top-tier threat. The true test for Williams, and perhaps the key to unlocking Chicago's offense, lies in his dual-threat capabilities against the league's most vulnerable run defense. The Giants are dead last, 32nd, in rushing yards allowed per carry. Williams, who averages 28.0 rushing yards per game (projected for 21.8 this week), has a prime opportunity to exploit this gaping hole, turning broken plays into significant gains and forcing the Giants' defensive line to account for him on every snap. This ground attack will also open up opportunities for D'Andre Swift, the Bears' lead back, who is projected for 60.8 yards on 14 carries against a defense utterly incapable of stopping the run.
On the other sideline, Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart presents a fascinating counter-narrative. While his projected output of 190.3 passing yards and 0.6 interceptions might seem unremarkable, Dart’s historical performance against elite defenses paints a picture of resilience. In four games against top-10 pass defenses, Dart has maintained an impressive 98.0 passer rating, averaging 195.5 passing yards, with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. He faces a Bears defense that ranks 26th against the run and 23rd against the pass, suggesting a more favorable environment than he’s often encountered.
Like Williams, Dart is a potent dual-threat, averaging 31.4 rushing yards per game (projected for 36.2), and the Bears' 26th-ranked run defense provides an avenue for him to extend drives and create chunk plays with his legs. This dynamic also benefits his pass-catchers; our model identifies a solid opportunity with a positive Expected Value (EV) of 4.0% on Wan'Dale Robinson to exceed his receiving yards projection of 54.7 yards, with odds at 1.909 (-110). This indicates that the Giants’ top receiver could find success against Chicago’s struggling secondary, especially if Dart can buy time with his mobility.
While Caleb Williams and D'Andre Swift will aim to relentlessly hammer the Giants' league-worst run defense, Jaxson Dart's ability to consistently perform under pressure, even against better units, could prove to be the Giants' wild card. The Giants' commitment to the run game, however, remains questionable. Our models show a significant edge with a 7.8% EV on Tyrone Tracy Jr. going Under his rushing yards projection of 40.5 yards at 1.909 (-110) odds. This suggests that even against the Bears' 26th-ranked run defense, Tracy Jr. may struggle to meet his projected output, perhaps due to game script, offensive line play, or a general lack of offensive rhythm, further highlighting the Giants' overall offensive challenges. This contrasts sharply with the likely success of Swift against the Giants' abysmal run defense, potentially creating a significant disparity in ground production.
Ultimately, the most decisive factor in this game will be Caleb Williams' execution of the run-pass option against the Giants' historically bad run defense. If Williams can effectively leverage his legs and Swift's power to gash the Giants on the ground, it will alleviate pressure on his passing game and allow the Bears to control the tempo, turning a defensive weakness into a clear offensive advantage. Should he fail to exploit this obvious mismatch, it could open the door for Jaxson Dart and the Giants to surprise, but all signs point to Chicago dominating the trenches.
Giants vs. Bears Pick
- Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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