Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Thanksgiving Night
The Cincinnati Bengals are hoping to surprise the Baltimore Ravens as touchdown underdogs in Joe Burrow's return. Can the star QB heat up fast after two months out and lead the Bengals to a Thanksgiving upset? Let's take a look at this Bengals vs. Ravens prediction for Thursday night.
OC Staff - November 27, 2025, 6:45 PM EST
4 Minute ReadBengals vs. Ravens Prediction: Can Joe Burrow Boost Bengals in Injury Return on Thanksgiving?
The NFL calendar brings us a pivotal AFC North clash where the struggling Cincinnati Bengals (3-8, #12 in conference, Lost 4 straight) visit the surging Baltimore Ravens (6-5, #4 in conference, Winners of 5 consecutive games).
The Ravens look to extend their home record past a middling 3-3, while the Bengals desperately seek to improve a dismal 1-4 road performance, setting the stage for several critical individual battles that will dictate the outcome.
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Bengals vs. Ravens Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- How to Watch: NBC
Bengals vs. Ravens Odds
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Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction - Thanksgiving Night Game
The most significant matchup hinges on the explosive playmaking of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson against a Bengals defense that ranks among the league's weakest. Jackson, a true dual-threat, averages 40.9 rushing yards per game and is projected for 25.3 rushing yards in this contest. This presents a nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, whose defense ranks 29th in the league against the run (Rush Yds/Carry Rank). Jackson's ability to extend plays with his legs and gash defenses on the ground will exploit a fundamental weakness of the Bengals.
Compounding this, Cincinnati's pass defense is equally vulnerable, also ranking 29th in QB Rating Allowed. Historically, Jackson has thrived against top-tier pass defenses, boasting an astounding 131.5 Passer Rating, 220.8 passing yards per game, and a 13.0 TD:INT ratio over six such games. Against a unit ranked 29th, the stage is set for a dominant performance through the air and on the ground, stretching the Bengals' defense to its breaking point.
On the other side of the ball, Joe Burrow and the Bengals' aerial attack face a tougher test against Baltimore's 12th-ranked pass defense (QB Rating Allowed). Burrow is projected for 243.8 passing yards on 24 completions out of 34 attempts, with a lean 0.5 interception projection. While the Ravens' secondary is respectable, a critical mitigating factor for Burrow is Baltimore's surprisingly inefficient pass rush, which ranks 29th in the league in sacks. This could provide Burrow with the precious time he needs to find his targets.
Burrow has shown he can dissect even elite defenses, evidenced by his historical splits against Top-10 Pass Defenses where he maintains a 101.7 Passer Rating and averages a remarkable 334.0 passing yards over three games, with a 7.0 TD:INT ratio. If the Ravens fail to generate consistent pressure, Burrow's ability to capitalize on extended plays could neutralize Baltimore's otherwise solid coverage units, allowing receivers like Ja'Marr Chase (projected for a robust 94.3 receiving yards) to make an impact.
The ground game presents intriguing dynamics with notable prop bet opportunities. For the Bengals, running back Chase Brown is projected for 13.9 carries and 59.3 rushing yards against a Ravens run defense that ranks 22nd. This matchup against a middling run defense appears ripe for exploitation, and indeed, our model identifies a substantial gap to exploit on Over 51.5 rushing yards for Chase Brown at 1.91 (‑110) odds, showing a significant edge of 16.7%. On the Ravens' side, Derrick Henry is projected for 18.1 carries and 81.6 rushing yards.
While the Bengals' run defense is a dismal 29th, our model surprisingly finds a strong edge on Under 90.5 rushing yards for Derrick Henry at 1.91 (‑110) odds, with an expected value of 5.8%. This suggests the market may be overvaluing his production despite the favorable defensive matchup, possibly due to game script expectations or the impact of Lamar Jackson's rushing. Furthermore, Ravens WR Zay Flowers, projected for 5.0 receptions and 67.9 receiving yards, faces the Bengals' 29th-ranked pass defense. This clear mismatch generates a strong edge for Over 66.5 receiving yards for Zay Flowers at 1.91 (‑110) odds, with an 8.7% EV.
Ultimately, the most decisive factor in this contest will likely be Lamar Jackson's performance against Cincinnati's bottom-tier defense. His ability to both run and pass effectively will overwhelm a Bengals unit that struggles in all facets, dictating the game's tempo and creating scoring opportunities that the Ravens will need to secure a crucial AFC North victory.
Bengals vs. Ravens Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +7 (-110) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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