Sentry Tournament of Champions Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Bets

The first PGA Tour event of 2022 is just around the corner. So, we brought our stable of golf experts together to give us their favorite longshot picks for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Sure, it's only a 39-golfer field, but there is still value.
Brian Good |
Wed, January 5, 10:22 AM EST | 10 min read
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Sentry Tournament of Champions Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Bets

PGA Tour golf is back and that means so are our staff longshots.

It's a little bit of a tricky week to pick a longshot with the 39-player field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but that's why these guys are experts.

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Tom Jacobs and our very own Sam Eaton give us a quick breakdown of their favorite Sentry TOC pick at longer odds and tell us why they'll be backing him this weekend.

Picking the first event of a new year is always tricky as you don't know what form to expect from which golfers, but the end of last year gave us a pretty good preview for what we can expect as 2022 kicks into gear.

If you're looking for a more in-depth picks preview of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, watch below and Geoff and Rick breakdown the entire field and which golfers have caught their eye, regardless of price, for this week in Hawaii.

Click here for the latest Sentry Tournament of Champions odds

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Sentry Tournament of Champions Expert Longshot Picks

Geoff Fienberg: Patrick Reed (+3300)

He’s the longest odds I played this week, so while I understand he's not exactly a long shot, he's my long shot. Reed has won here before and has multiple runner-up finishes. He seems to play well on these enormous greens and uneven lies that this course is famous for. It also helps that he's always hyper-motivated, which is a narrative I never like to go on in golf betting, but it's hard to know where everyone's games are at after an extensive layoff.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Tom Jacobs: Marc Leishman (+3500)

Marc Leishman started the season with a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship and a T3 at the Shriners before a 38th-place finish at the CJ Cup. He ended the week at the CJ with a 64 though and went into his following start full of confidence, shown by an opening-round 65 in Houston which saw him co-lead after day one.

The Aussie finished 4th here in 2019 and that’s his best effort to date, but he was 7th the year before as well, after leading thru rounds 1 and 2 in 2018, and it was only a Saturday 76 that cost him a chance at the title.

Wide fairways will suit Leishman and I think he can start the season strong.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Sam Eaton: Talor Gooch (+4500)

Picking a longshot in such a small field is always going to be tricky, but there’s a couple of players worth chancing at bigger odds, in both the winner market and also in prop markets (T20, etc).

One of those players is Matt Jones at +15000. But, do I realistically think he will win against this field? Nope. However, the top-20 and top-10 markets do interest me. The putting surfaces, wind and course setup should suit Jones.

However, my longshot is Talor Gooch. Gooch finished the year as one of the form players, and if he brings that form into 2022 then he could be a good-looking price at +4500.

Gooch’s irons finished 2021 on fire. In the last six months, he’s 2nd in this field in shots gained on approach, and first in the 100-125 yard proximity.

Gooch will handle any wind, and should benefit from the longer course. 

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Rick Gehman: Joel Dahmen (+15000)

Dahmen rallied at the end of 2021 and was one of the better ball-strikers on TOUR to close out the year. Only six golfers in this field were better than Dahmen in the ball-striking categories over their last 20 rounds. Combine that with his improved putting stroke and Dahmen has the ability to make plenty of noise this week.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Joe Idone: Joel Dahmen (+15000)

We get a massive number on Dahmen in a 39-player field this week. While it’s understood the strength of the field is elite, his form throughout the fall shouldn’t be ignored. Dahmen made 5/5 cuts, which included a 5th place finish at the Houston Open. He struck his shorter irons beautifully and the sheer width of the fairways at Kapalua should mitigate an occasional wild miss off the tee. His win in 2021 came at Corales, which holds a number of similarities to Kapalua and provided his prerequisite for entry into the Tournament this week.

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Brian Good

Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.


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