The American Express Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks
The American Express Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks
The PGA Tour is back to the mainland this week following two weeks in Hawaii. This time, it's the American Express in Northern California.
It's a tricky event to bet on with three courses in play and an extended cut. But, it's also a tournament that lends itself to longshot winners, making this week's Oddschecker staff longshots that much more interesting.
This week, we have multiple members of our golf team in agreeance on who they will be backing as their longshot. Who should you trust when you go to the window this weekend? Read on below to find out.
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The American Express Longshot Picks
Geoff Fienberg: Russell Knox @ +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)
We've seen longshots hit at the AMEX at some incredible numbers over the years. In fact, we might not have an event on the entire schedule that gives the whole field as much of a chance as this 3-course rotation in No Cal. I'm going with Knox, who's coming off a T7 last week at the Sony. Knox feels like an ideal player to plot along here and attack all week with his irons (a very common theme for many of the longshots I like this week). His approach play remains superb and that will be his ultimate advantage in California this week.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Sam Eaton: Russell Knox @ +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)
This tournament reverts back to three courses, which makes it a nightmare when it comes to watching on TV or following on shot-tracker. Your best bet is to just flick on the TV on Sunday afternoon, and hopefully you will see Russell Knox near the top of the leaderboard.
As a summary, this event is about finding the fairway and good approach play. In the last six months, Knox is 3rd when it comes to fairways gained in this field and 6th in terms of SG approach. He’s had two top-20 finishes in the last three years at this event and comes into the American Express following a good 7th place finish at the Sony Open.
-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)
Rick Gehman: Michael Thompson @ +11000 (Bet $100 to win $11,000)
Thompson is finding something in his game right now that has be excited. He's made eight of his last nine cuts but popped at the Sony Open last week, finishing T5. Not only was that an impressive finish, but his advanced metrics would indicate that it's repeatable. He gained 6.52 strokes on approach, the third most in the field. He should have plenty of confidence as he looks to improve on his T5 finish at The American Express from last year.
-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)
Joe Idone: Michael Thompson @ +11000 (Bet $100 to win $11,000)
I loved what I saw out of Grizzly Mike Thompson last week at the Sony Open in route to a T5 finish. I believe the course setups this week, albeit the awkward 3-course rotation, share a lot of similar attributes to what we saw last week. Thompson is best suited for these shortened layouts where he’s able to get wedge in his hands and procure birdie opportunities. A solid history at this event the last 3 years leads me to believe Thompson could well again here at 100-1
-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)
Andy Lack: Andrew Putnam @ +16000 (Bet $100 to win $16,000)
Andrew Putnam is a West Coast guy whose done some of his best work on desert courses. In his last four appearances at The American Express, he has no finish worse than 34th. The Pepperdine product also boasts multiple top-20 finishes at comparable tests such as TPC Scottsdale and TPC Summerlin. Coming off a respectable 27th-place finish at the Sony Open where he gained strokes in all four major statistical categories, I expect Putnam to be a factor in Palm Springs.
-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)
Tom Jacobs: Andrew Putnam @ +16000 (Bet $100 to win $16,000)
The more the week goes on, the more I like Andrew Putnam's chances, which is always dangerous when it comes to a longshot.
Still, I'm not going to go against my gut here. Keith Mitchell put in a really good shift in this spot for me last week, and this event is just as favorable, if not more so for longshots.
Putnam is improving, with 6 of his 20 best OWGR finishes coming in 2021, and two of those were at desert courses which correlate nicely. He finished T7 at the Phoenix Open and T11 at the Shriners and those are huge positives for me. A T13 at the Travelers last year is equally interesting as it came at a Pete Dye-designed course, while his T8 finish at the Valero Texas Open appears to be a strong indicator of potential success here as well.
A T27 at the Sony last week was a nice warmup, and with a win, three 2nd's and a 3rd already to his name on the PGA Tour, he's probably contended more than people think in an inconsistent career to date.
Putnam played solidly here since the Stadium Course took over main hosting duties in 2016, going 4/4 for made cuts, with three top-21's, with best-place finish of 10th. He was 6th after 54-holes when finishing 10th, and inside the top-10 in each of the opening two rounds last year as well
-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)