Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions and picks from our stable of golf handicappers and experts. Need Pebble Beach Pro-Am longhsot picks? We've got you covered.
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Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

If you tailed our expert longshots last week, you're rolling into the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a fat stack of cash in your pocket. OddsChecker's own Sam Eaton picked eventual winner Luke List last week, cashing in a +9000 longshot and giving us our first winner of 2022.

This week, we have all sorts of Pebble Beach Pro-Am longshot picks, ranging from as short as +5000 and all the way out to as long as +20000. It's up to you to decide just how risky you want to get.

Read on to get our Pebble Beach Pro-Am longshot picks from Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Joe Idone, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton.

Click here for Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds

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Pebble Beach Pro-Am Longshot Picks

Tom Jacobs: Kevin Kisner @ +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5,000)

I really like the value on Kevin Kisner this week, and think he’s being overlooked due to some sketchy course form. 

A deeper dive into said form though shows not only the 10th place finish back into 2015, but also that when he was 28th in 2019, he was sat 8th after 36-holes, which suggests when his game is right he can contend here. 

That makes sense as this is a better course fit than his form over the years suggests, and I think it may be a lack of interest in the format, than an issue with scoring on the three short courses. 

I like his Wyndham win as a correlation here, and The Greenbrier where he lost in a playoff also provides some crossover. He's hitting the ball very well, ranking 8th and 22nd in his last two starts in SG Approach and that should only serve him well. 

He contended at the Tournament of Champions, on a course he had no right to keep up on, and now he returns this week to one that he can win at. 

He has a fellow Georgia man as his Pro-Am partner in the form of Charles Kelley, the country singer, and hopefully, they get on well and both enjoy a fruitful week.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Sam Eaton: Mito Pereira @ +6000 (Bet $100 to win $6,000)

I’m sure you’ve all seen the stats about the importance of course form heading to Pebble Beach, however, the two I’m debating go against that, as they’ve never played this event before.

If you were adamant about course form, and looking for a long-shot, you won’t go far wrong with Russell Knox.

The two I’m keen on are Aaron Rai and Mito Pereira. Given this field and his performance last week, I’m surprised Rai is +8000. However, with irons and putting being so important at Pebble Beach, I’m opting to go with Mito.

Mito was the talk of the town in 2021, and it’s easy to see why. In his last three PGA Tour events, he averaged four shots gained putting on the field. He’s also averaged 2.6 shots gained approach in his last five recorded events.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Geoff Fienberg: Russell Knox @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8,000)

A short course, exposed to the wind is the Knox sweet spot, while he has let me down before and certainly will again with his putter it's important to note he seems to have some semblance of success on the POA surfaces. He has gained strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 trips to this event. Having backed Knox at the AM EX in this long shot collab article, I feel beholden to return on another short, approach shot-heavy event.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Andy Lack: Sahith Theegala @ +13000 (Bet $100 to win $13,000)

The former collegiate standout at Pepperdine has been slowly getting more and more comfortable on the PGA Tour. Theegala has improved upon his finish each week this year, with a 48th at the Sony Open, 33rd at The American Express, and a 25th at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, where he gained 3.8 strokes on approach. While through the lens of a limited sample size, the former Haskins Award winner is an excellent wedge player with a strong short game, two skill-sets that should serve him quite nicely at Pebble Beach.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Joe Idone: Sahith Theegala @ +13000 (Bet $100 to win $13,000)

Theegala is poised for a breakthrough on a big stage and I believe this is the week! He's made every cut since the Fall and has shown steady improvement, even finding himself in Sunday contention on occasion. He possesses incredible touch around the greens which bode well given the course setup this week, and we know he is what I call a POA-Pusher! This is a case of the betting price simply lagging behind a player's skill level and trajectory at this point and I'm happy to make Theegala my longshot in triple digits at Pebble Beach.

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Rick Gehman Satoshi Kodaira @ +20000 (Bet $100 to win $20,000)

If you want a flier, here's a deep flier! The set-up of these courses has been beneficial to short-accurate drivers of the ball. Kodaira, who ranked 9th in accuracy but 182nd in distance last season, certainly fits into that category. We saw him finish T12 and gain strokes in all four major Strokes Gained categories at the Sony Open, his only start of 2022.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

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Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.

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