Waste Management Phoenix Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Waste Management Phoenix Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

On last week's longshots, no one came through with Tom Hoge, but we're just a week removed from Sam Eaton's +9000 winner on Luke List. Not to mention, our very own Tom Jacobs and Geoff Fienberg gave out last week's winner, Tom Hoge, in their outright selections.

This week, we head to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which has become one of the most-hyped stops on tour. The entire event is one big party, culminating with the par-3 16th and all the madness.

So, let's take a look at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open longshots.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open Longshot Picks

Tom Jacobs: Billy Horschel @ +6600 (Bet $100 to win $6,600)

There's not a lot of love for Billy Horschel, but I think he's being wildly overlooked this week.

Stats-wise, he looks in bad shape with his irons, but he's not someone that often pops statistically, you just sometimes have to go with your gut. 

He's been inside the top-9 here at TPC Scottsdale in 5 of his last 8 rounds, and overall he's 8 for 9 for made cuts here, with a best finish of 9th in that time. 

Incredibly consistent on both on this course, and in general at the moment, I'll take a chance that Horschel can finally piece together consecutive weekend rounds here and be in contention come Sunday. 

I've also backed him in the FRL market this week, based on him firing rounds of 63, 66 and 66 in recent years to sit 2nd, 2nd and 6th after day one.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Sam Eaton: Luke List @ +7000 (Bet $100 to win $7,000)

This might look like I’m expecting Luke List to be World Number One by the end of the year, however, the model pointed out List, Swafford, Knox & Power as potential long-shots. Given the correlation with course form that rules out Power, and List’s form is a lot more impressive than Swafford and Knox.

In the last six months, he ranks 2nd in this field for both driving distance and greens in regulation, 7th in ball striking and 18th in Par 5 scoring. All key skills needed to tackle this event.

Would I of every predicted I’d be tipping back-to-back wins for Luke List? No. Will Luke List go back-to-back? Probably not. However, his performance at the Farmers was no fluke, he’s been playing solid golf since The John Deere.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Joe Idone: Gary Woodland @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

Woodland is in dire need of a "get right" spot on the schedule to regain some confidence in his game. By all indications, his physical health is back to where he wants it to be and he's made momentous strides with his swing, but he just needs that to compound with tournament results. There's no doubt he is quite fond of this event as he checks in this week with a win and two top 7 finishes on his recent resume. If he can get the driver straightened out, he should find himself with plenty of opportunities to score. His par 5 scoring numbers are typically his strength, and while the finish at the Farmers Insurance Open wasn't what he hoped, gaining almost 3 strokes on approach is definitely a step in the right direction. He's due for a bounce back in form and this is the spot he gets that started at 125-1!

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Andy Lack: Martin Laird @ +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15,000)

Laird is a player I have my eye on this week due to his strong resume at TPC Scottsdale and on desert golf courses in general. The 39-year-old winner is also a two-time winner at TPC Summerlin, another desert, TPC style, risk/reward golf course that plays at altitude. Laird also enters this week on the heels of a week where he gained 2.5 strokes on approach at the Farmer’s Insurance Open through three rounds, a course that was always going to be an uphill battle for him. Now he gets to a much more comfortable fit in TPC Scottsdale, where his accuracy off the tee and short to middle iron play will be accentuated.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Geoff Fienberg: Russell Knox @ +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15,000)

I'm embarrassed to acknowledge this is the 3rd time in the last month that I've put up Knox for this collab longshots piece. I'm not even a Knox fan, but I can't ignore his incredibly consistent iron play that continues to excel, dessert golf and Bermuda greens should be ideal for Knox to perform quite well

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Rick Gehman: Russell Knox @ +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15,000)

Simply put, Knox will go as far as his putter allows him. He's the 7th best approach player in this field over the last 50 rounds but struggles on the putting surface. The good news for Knox is that skill-set creates a wide path to success if he can gain strokes with the flatstick, something he's done in five of his last nine starts on bermudagrass. He should be comfortable at TPC Scottsdale, where he's earned a Top 20 on three separate occasions in the last six years.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)