BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks & Predictions: Back Niemann For a Fast Start
We are onto the second leg of the FedEx Cup, as the players move onto the BMW Championship. Tom Jacobs looks into the First Round Leader market, at an event which is being hosted by an all-new course.
Tom Jacobs - August 16, 2022, 3:58 PM EDT
4 minutesBMW Championship First Round Leader Picks & Predictions: Back Niemann For a Fast Start
The BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup, after Will Zalatoris emerged victorious at the FedEx St. Jude this past Sunday.
This event historically changes its venue year-on-year, with Cog Hill (4x) the course that was used the most.
Since 2018, the course has changed every year, not using a course that was previously on the rota, and Wilmington Country Club features this year.
Wilmington Country Club has never hosted an event at this level, so we are slightly in the dark at this stage, but the expectation is that it will suit longer hitters - which is no surprise in this day and age.
Let us check whether there is any bias with regards to tee times and weather this week, when it comes to finding a first round leader here.
BMW Championship First Round Leader Strategy
Here are the last ten first round leaders at the BMW Championship.
- 2021 – Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns (-8/64) - 2 AM/1 PM Tee Times
- 2020 – Hideki Matsuyama (-3/67) - 2:09 PM Tee Time
- 2019 – Jason Kokrak, Justin Thomas (-7/65) - AM/PM Split Tee Times
- 2018 – Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods (-8/62) - AM/PM Split Tee Times
- 2017 – Marc Leishman (-9/62) - 11:22 AM Tee Time
- 2016 – Roberto Castro (-7/65) - 10:14 AM Tee Time
- 2015 – Jason Day (-10/61) - 12:53 PM Tee Time
- 2014 – Gary Woodland, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (-3/67) - AM/PM Tee Time Split
- 2013 – Brandt Snedeker (-8/63) - 11:48 AM Tee Time
- 2012 – Bo Van Pelt, Graham DeLeat, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson (-8/64) - 3 PM, DeLaet 11:59am Tee Time
The wind and the gusts don't really pick up until 5pm local, so you can target either wave of tee times, without fear that the weather will impact strongly here.
Early starters have tended to succeed in this market, when looking back at the event history. I would still say you can target either wave, so I would advise a split in selections.
Who in This Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?
Here are the 10 fastest starters in this field based on the current Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2021/22 PGA Tour season.
- Rory McIlroy - (1st overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.07) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers)
- Cameron Smith - (2nd overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.44) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Sony)
- Russell Henley - (3rd overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.45) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Sony Open)
- Matt Kuchar - (4th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.47) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Sony Open)
- Joaquin Niemann - (5th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.55) - Low Opening Round - 63 (Genesis)
- Aaron Wise - (6th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.59) - Low Opening Round - 63 (Mayakoba)
- Patrick Cantlay- (7th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.69) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Amex)
- Scottie Scheffler - (8th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.90) - Low Opening Round - 63 (RSM)
- Wyndham Clark - (9th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 68.93) - Low Opening Round - 63 (Canadian Open)
- Cameron Young - (10th overall in 2021/22 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 63 (Heritage)
What Score Is Required To Lead After Round 1?
With this being a new course, it is hard to get a strong grasp on what score is required, but based on the history of the event, a 64 looks like a good target. That is the average score over the past 10 years of this event, but this is obviously a different course.
The Favorites in This Week's First Round Leader Market
Here are the odds for the top-10 in BMW Championship, First Round Leader Market. Here we will give you the best price and the implied chance on each of the top-10 in the market.
Odds | Player | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
+1800 | Rory McIlroy | 5.3% |
+2200 | Jon Rahm | 4.3% |
+2200 | Justin Thomas | 4.3% |
+2200 | Tony Finau | 4.3% |
+2600 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.7% |
+2600 | Scottie Scheffler | 3.7% |
+2600 | Will Zalatoris | 3.7% |
+2900 | Patrick Cantlay | 3.3% |
+3300 | Collin Morikawa | 2.9% |
+3300 | Sam Burns | 2.9% |
First Round Leader Selections
Sungjae Im +3300 (BetMGM)
Sungjae Im has led or co-led 9 times on a Thursday during his career, and three of those have come on the PGA Tour.
Two of those came in 2022, most recently at the 3M Open, and 29 times in his career he has found himself within two of the lead, so he likes a fast start.
Im has finished 11th, 56th and 3rd in his three starts in this event, and he's in hot form right now. He's finished 2nd, 2nd and 12th in his last three starts and I think he can carry that on here.
His iron play wasn't the best last week, but Tee-to-Green in general he was ok and I think he will find it again here.
He ranks 12th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season and I love his profile for the First Round Leader Market.
It might be one week too many for Im, but I will take that chance.
Sungjae Im will tee off #1 tee at 11:50 am with Justin Thomas
Sam Burns +3300 (BetMGM)
Sam Burns has held three leads or co-leads after round 1, two of which have come here 12 months ago and the Valspar back in March. It appears then, that since his game has improved, so too has his round 1 play in general.
Burns' finishing positions have been inconsistent of late, but he opened the Scottish Open with a 67 to sit 7th on day one, closed the Open Championship with a 64, and last week opened with a 65 to sit 8th, so he's flashing in the odd round.
He was top-10 last week in both SG Approach and SG Tee-to-Green, and I like this birdie-fest type of event for him. With no cut this week, he can be aggressive, and hopefully that will lead to a fast start here.
He ranks 17th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season, was 16th last season and 13 times total he has been within two of the first round lead in his career, so I think he can give it a go this week.
I like his pairing with Tony Finau and I think the two can dovetail off one another, and post low rounds to start their week's.
Sam Burns will tee off #1 Tee at 11:40 am with Tony Finau
Joaquin Niemann +3700 (FanDuel)
Joaquin Niemann is one of my favorite bets this week in the outright market, and I am more than happy to double down in this market to.
14 times in his career, Niemann has been within two of the first-round lead. 4 of those occasions have been first-round leads, and he's posted one in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Niemann is 5th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season, and just last week he ranked 3rd in SG Approach and 11th in SG Tee to Green, so everything points towards a fast start here.
7 times this season alone he has been within three of the lead, 5 times within two, so he's in great shape. He led by three strokes at the Genesis earlier this season, which he won, and if he is going to win here, I think it will be charged by a hot start.
Joaquin Niemann will tee off #1 tee at 2:10 pm with Viktor Hovland
Chez Reavie +9000 (DraftKings)
Chez Reavie has an incredible round 1 record over his career, sitting within two of the Thursday lead 40 times, and within three 69 times in total. He led the Fortinet Championship earlier this season, and sat within two a further three times this season already.
In his last three starts, Reavie has ranked 24th, 9th and 2nd in SG Approach and in this event he's finished 8th and 12th in the past, albeit on different courses.
He's historically a fast starter, he's hitting his irons brilliantly, and he's capable of performing in strong fields. Reavie has opened with rounds of 68 or better in five of his last seven starts, and I think he can go a bit lower now, with his irons flashing.
Chez Reavie will tee off #1 tee at 9:30 am with Troy Merritt
