Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Picks & Predictions: Opportunity Knox in Round 1

Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Picks & Predictions:

This is the fourth renewal of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and while this will likely be the weakest field we see all season, there is still plenty to play for.

The winner of this event still gets a two-year exemption on TOUR, 500 FedEx Cup Points, and a spot in coveted tournaments like the 2023 Masters, the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, so there is plenty of incentive to succeed.

Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton Parish, Bermuda has hosted this event since its inception in 2019, and at this stage, we have a good idea of what to expect from this event.

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This is an event that finds it hard to attract a strong field, largely due to the tough conditions the players could face this week in Port Royal, but that doesn't mean we cannot try and find an edge in the Bermuda Championship First Round Leader market.

With the likes of Denny McCarthy and Mark Hubbard leading the market in both the outright and first-round leader categories, you know the depth is not there in terms of quality of field, but this does potentially throw up opportunities, as we can dive into players that either do not play often but can succeed here, or have come from the Korn Ferry Tour, and are relatively untested at this level.

Let's look at the first three players to post first-round leads here at Port Royal, when they teed off, and what score they had to reach to post the lowest round 1 score.

Bermuda Championship First-Round Leader Strategy

Here were the first-round leaders in round 1 of the Bermuda Championship over the first three renewals of this event.

All tee times below are displayed in Local Time

2021 - Brandon Hagy (12:48 pm), Chad Ramey (1:32 pm) 65 (-6) - (Both PM Tee Times)

2020 - Peter Malnati 63 (-8) - 8:25 am

2019 - Scottie Scheffler 62 (-9) - 9:14 am

The morning wave prevailed here over the first two renewals, but when it comes to finishing as the first-round leader here, it will ultimately come down to the weather, as wind affects this event in a big way, so you just keep an eye on when the wind is at its strongest throughout the day and plan accordingly.

As it stands, the wind appears to be fairly benign in Round 1, and there does not appear to be a draw bias on Thursday, but in this part of the world that can change quickly, so keep an eye on things. With a lack of diversity in the weather throughout the day as it stands, I would lean to the morning wave here, but taking players from both is wise.

With three years of course form to go by, you can see how regular visitors have fared here, but when it comes to debutants, form at El Camaleon in Mexico, and the Sony Open in Hawaii should be considered.

Who Are The Fastest Starters in this Field?

With a weak field, it will be no surprise to learn that almost nobody in this field made an impact at the top of the Round 1 Scoring Average category last season.

Here are a select number of players who generally started fast on the PGA Tour last season.

Denny McCarthy

• Ranked 16th in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2021/22
• Round 1 Scoring Average last season - 69.25
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 65 Wells Fargo Championship

Jonathan Byrd

• Ranked 24th in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2021/22
• Round 1 Scoring Average last season - 69.33
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 64 RSM Classic and Mexico Open

Aaron Rai

• Ranked 37th in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2021/22
• Round 1 Scoring Average last season - 69.63
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 65 Mexico Open and Wells Fargo

Seamus Power

• Ranked 40th in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2021/22
• Round 1 Scoring Average last season - 69.67
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 63 RSM Classic and Sony Open

Michael Gligic

• Ranked 46th in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2021/22
• Round 1 Scoring Average last season - 69.76
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 64 John Deere Classic

What Score Is Required To Lead After Round 1?

A 63 is a great target for the Round 1 lead this week. The first year, Scottie Scheffler shot a 62, as the weather was largely a non-factor, and while that may be the case again this week, a 63 is a more realistic aim given that 63 and 65 led the past two years.

The Favorites in This Week's First-Round Leader Market

Here are the odds for the top 5 in the Bermuda Championship First Round Leader Market.

In the table below, you will find the best price and the implied chance of each of the top 5 in this market.

Bermuda Championship First-Round Leader Selections

Russell Knox +5000 ($1000 Risk-Free Bet with BetMGM)

I am on Russell Knox in the outright market, and I want to be on him here as well, and while the thought of being all-in on a player that hasn't won since 2018 is slightly concerning, I think he makes perfect sense at this event.

In three starts at the Bermuda Championship, Knox has finished 11th, 16th, and 12th, and the Scot has also started this season with back-to-back top-25s.

When it comes to Rusell Knox's first-round leader credentials, they are pretty strong. The veteran has four first-round leads to his name, his first coming at Pebble Beach in 2013, before leading the Safeway Open, Mayakoba, and Texas Open after round 1, from 2020-2022. The lead at the Mayakoba may be the one of most interest, given former winners here, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd both won there in Mexico as well.

25 times in total, Knox has been within two of the first-round lead, including here, back in 2019 when he opened with a 64, trailing Scottie Scheffler by two.

Recently at the Sanderson Farms, Knox opened with a 68 and was two back after round one, and he can go even better this time around and post the fifth first-round lead of his career. With a strong bank of course form and an early tee time, he is the perfect candidate in this market.

Russell Knox will tee off #1 tee at 7:51 am with Austin Smotherman and Cody Gribble

S.H. Kim +5500 ($1000 Sweat-Free Bet with FanDuel)

Seong-hyeon Kim has got his PGA Tour career off to a hot start, finishing 36th, 13th and 4th in his first three starts, before finishing 64th last week.

In those first three starts, Kim opened the Fortinet Championship with a 66 to sit 3rd on day one, the Sanderson Farms with a 68 to sit 10th, and when 4th at the Shriners he opened with a 65 to also sit 4th on Thursday.

That's twice in four starts he has been within two of the first-round lead, and he can better it this time around as he looks to finish the day top of the pile on Thursday.

Kim finished 3rd and 19th in two starts in the Bahamas, on the Korn Ferry Tour and that event points to him being able to succeed on this layout as well.

8 times since 2019, Kim has been within two of the first-round lead, co-leading once on the Korean Tour on one occasion.

S.H. Kim will tee off #1 tee at 1:21 pm with Hank Lebioda and Kevin Tway

Doug Ghim +7500 (Bet $1, Win $200 Guaranteed with Bet365)

Doug Ghim has plenty of talent, which he has shown in flashes on multiple occasions, but he is yet to break through on the PGA Tour. It feels like he will one day, but while it might not be this week, I do think an opening-day lead could be on the cards.

Seven times in his career, Doug Ghim has been within two of the first-round lead, and while he has yet to lead after round 1, he has come close, including at this event.

Ghim opened with a 64 here in 2020, to sit one back on Thursday, and he has also started nicely at the RSM Classic in the past as well, an event that provides some crossover.

With his previous good showing here, where he finished the week in 14th place, and a strong effort at the Mayakoba as well, this feels like an event where Ghim could go well, especially on the opening day.

Ghim ranks pretty well for Driving Accuracy in terms of this field, and I think that can be a huge asset.

Dough Ghim will tee off #10 tee at 10:35 am with Charley Hoffman and Ricky Barnes

Garrick Higgo +8000 ($50 Free Bet with DraftKings)

Garrick Higgo is a wildcard in every sense of the word, but with such volatility comes some great scores, and I think he can shoot another low one here on Thursday.

Higgo turned professional in 2019, and all he is done is win, on every tour he has played. Starting on the Sunshine Tour, Higgo won the 2019 Sun City Challenge, before winning the Tour Championship in 2020.

Making the step up to the DP World Tour he then went on to win the 2020 Open de Portugal, before winning either side of the 2021 PGA Championship, at the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open and Canary Islands Championship.

A month later he won the Palmetto Championship on the PGA Tour, and this event looks in his wheelhouse.

While he is far from the straightest drivers, he can tear this course apart, and he showed as much, opening with a 67 to sit two back after round 1 last year, before adding a 65 on Saturday. He was 4th after round 1 and 10th after round 3 here last year, so while he could only finish 34th, he clearly had two very good rounds.

Nine times in his career, Higgo has been within two of the first round lead, in just three years as a professional, and while he has only converted one of those into leads, which came on the Sunshine Tour, I can see another one coming here.

Higgo has missed 6 of his last 7 cuts, but when he did make the weekend, he finished 3rd at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he had a shot to win, and he has the potential the shoot the lowest score on any given day.

Garrick Higgo will tee off #10 tee at 8:08 am with Chad Ramey and Ryan Brehm