WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Sleepers and Value Picks: Can Day or Kuchar Contend?

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Sleepers and Value Picks: Can Day or Kuchar Contend?

Justin Thomas and Justin Rose have opted against playing this week, but otherwise, all eligible players are heading to Austin Country Club, for what is, for now, the final WGC Match Play event. This event has been removed from the 2024 PGA Tour schedule, but who will win this week?

Scottie Scheffler has finished 1st and 2nd in this event, and has won two of his last four events, so can the World No.1 be beaten this week?

It is very rare to win this title multiple times, as just three players have managed it, one of which is Tiger Woods, but Scheffler will certainly rate his chances.

Instead of focusing on the top of the betting board though, we will be looking at the best sleepers and value picks for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 extra when your selection wins. That's right, you can effectively boost Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Jon Rahm to 30-1 this week, with DraftKings.

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Event

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

• SG: Approach - Given Austin CC is a Pete Dye design, it will be no surprise to you, that strong iron play will be the focal point this week.
• SG Putting - You must have a hot putter to win a Match Play event. You might get past one or two opponents who putt worse than you but to win the event, you will need to be seven opponents, which means the flat stick must work all week.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Trends

To help you with your 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play value and sleeper picks, here are multiple trends that might help you narrow down those that could progress to the latter stages of the Match Play event.

• There have been six renewals of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin CC. Dustin Johnson is the only #1 seed to win at this course. Tiger Woods (three times) and Rory McIlroy are the only other #1 seed to win in the history of this event.
• All six players to win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin CC had already won at least twice on the PGA Tour.
• Only Scottie Scheffler has won this event at Austin CC without already playing the WGC Match Play 3+ times in his career.
• The final of the WGC Match Play at Austin Country Club has always featured someone who was a #16 or worse at the start of the week.

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• A player with multiple Match Play appearances under their belt
• A player who has two+ wins on the PGA Tour already

The trends above are incredibly volatile, given the nature of this event, but they are certainly worth considering when looking for viable outsiders.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the six WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play winners at Austin Country Club.

2022 - Scottie Scheffler +2000

2021 - Billy Horschel +8000

2019 - Kevin Kisner +8000

2018 - Bubba Watson +5000

2017 - Dustin Johnson +1000

2016 - Jason Day +1400

Value and sleepers have certainly prevailed at this event in the past, especially in recent years. Billy Horschel, Bubba Watson, and Kevin Kisner all qualified as sleeper and value picks the week they won. They were the 32nd, 35th, and 48th seeds respectively, the week they won.

There are several ways to look for sleeper and value picks in this event, and one of those would be to target who you would consider the weakest top seeds in the field. There are 16 groups of 4 players, so if you consider anyone seeded #1 to #16 as beatable, then maybe a potential winner can come from their group.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. All of these plays are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, in order to qualify for the value and sleeper pick criteria!

Jason Day +4000 Outright (Get a $50 Free Bet at DraftKings)

Jason Day has been in great form this season, and whilst he has yet to make a run at winning a stroke play event this season, he can certainly win this title for the third time.

The Australian has already won on this golf course and won two years prior as well, but this time he would have to do it from a different position.

In 2014 he was the #8 seed, and in 2016 he was the #2 seed, whereas this time he is the #32 seed. Will that impact his chances, or is he playing beyond that ranking right now?

I would say he's playing like a top 10 player in this field right now, as he's finished inside the top 20 in 9 of his 12 events this season, and in his last six straight events.

There is every chance Day contends at majors this season, and he will be keen to find some contending form before the Masters comes around in a couple of weeks, and this presents a good opportunity.

Day is in a group where Collin Morikawa is the highest-ranked player, and I think he is beatable. Morikawa won his group last year but got beaten 7&6 in his first knockout match against Abraham Ancer. A year before, Morikawa lost 2 matches and tied another, in a group that included Billy Horschel, Max Homa, and J.T. Poston.

That suggests Morikawa can be beaten in this format, and Day can take advantage of that here this week.

If Day advances from the group, he would then face one of, Viktor Hovland, Chris Kirk, or Si Woo Kim in the final 16, all of whom I think he can beat as well.

The path is clear for Day, and I think he's good value in this format, at +4000.

Jason Day's Group: Collin Morikawa (#9), Victor Perez (#51), Jason Day (#32), Adam Svensson (#44)

Matt Kuchar +9000 Outright (Bet $1, Get $365 Betting Matt Kuchar at Bet365)

If Jason Day doesn't advance as I think he might, I think Matt Kuchar is another sleeper we can take a chance on.

He has only failed to advance from his group once here at Austin CC, and in his past two appearances here, he's finished 2nd and 3rd, so can this veteran be the latest longshot winner of this event?

Billy Horschel won this event at +8000 and so too did Kevin Kisner, and Kuchar can now win at a similar number as well.

Rolling back the years, Kuchar has finished T12 or better three times this season, including a T7 at the Sony Open, and an 8th place finish at the Genesis Invitational three starts ago. There may be very few courses Kuchar can still win at, especially at this point of his career, but he is one that will surely want to take advantage of the last visit to Austin CC.

Matt Kuchar's Group: Viktor Hovland (#8), Matt Kuchar (#59), Chris Kirk (#28), Si Woo Kim (#34)

Denny McCarthy Outright +11000 (Bet $1, Get $365 Guaranteed With Bet365)

This one may seem a bit left-field, but I do think there is some logic to taking Denny McCarthy at the WGC Match Play.

Does anyone want to really take Rory McIlroy on? Probably not, but considering his record at this golf course, I think he is opposable, especially with someone as streaky as Denny McCarthy.

McCarthy hasn't played this course, but Rory McIlroy has and he's failed to get out of his group on three of his five visits. That seems a rough record for someone of his talent and considering he's only got passed the final 16 stage once (4th in 2016), I think he can be taken on.

So why are we going to do it with McCarthy who is a debutant? Well firstly, he is playing solid golf right now. His last six starts have seen him finish 4th, 14th, 13th, and 19th, against two missed cuts. He was inside the top 9 going into the weekend at the Players Championship two starts ago, and when 14th at Riviera, he was 6th going into the final round, so his form is stacking up, even in strong fields.

Add in the fact that his 13th place finishes at the Players and the RBC Heritage both came on Pete Dye designs, and the fact he is typically a brilliant putter, and chances are he could go well here. Aside from Rory, McCarthy is coming up against Scott Stallings and Keegan Bradley in his group.

Stallings is in poor form and doesn't look likely to pose a threat, and Keegan Bradley has not won a single one of the 9 matches he's played at this event, since it has been held at this course.

If McCarthy does get out of his group, he might have to face Tyrrell Hatton who I do like, but if he can outlast McIlroy, he can certainly outlast Hatton as well.

Denny McCarthy's Group: Rory McIlroy (#3), Scott Stallings (#52), Keegan Bradley (#20), Denny McCarthy (#48)