Masters Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Matsuyama, Rose to Contend Again at Augusta

Masters Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Matsuyama, Rose to Contend Again at Augusta

The Masters. A tradition unlike any other. You'll hear that all week, via the dulcet tones of Jim Nantz, but it absolutely rings true. This event cannot be matched, and it is one that we will continue to love every year.

If we were to bet on a longshot this week, and we watched them put on a Green Jacket on Easter Sunday, then we would love it that bit more, so let's look at our favorite sleepers and value picks for the 2023 Masters.

The trends may not work in our favor, as longshots do not typically win this event, but it has happened before, and we can profile the very best candidates to pull off the same this week.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Masters, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your golfer wins this weekend, giving you a +3000 odds boost on your favorite Masters outright.

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Masters

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 Masters

• Greens in Regulation - 13 of the last 16 Masters winners have ranked 7th or better in Greens in Regulation the week they won at Augusta.
• SG Around the Green - Around the Green play actually matters more here than it does in other events, so whilst this statistic and the more traditional Scrambling are not often weighted very highly in models, you should consider a player's form around the greens, heading into Augusta. Strokes Gained metrics have only been available at The Masters for the past two years, but the two winners ranked 2nd and 4th in that category.
• SG Tee to Green - Just like any good golf course, Augusta tests every facet of your game. Experience on the greens is typically advantageous, but we have seen players who generally struggle with the flat stick, win at this course. Instead, you should focus your attention on those elite ball strikers who can pound fairways and greens with regularity. The last two winners of The Masters have ranked 2nd in SG Tee

Masters Trends - How to Find a Winner at Augusta

As this is the only major that returns to the same course every year, this is the most predictive in terms of trends, and there are several things we can weigh up, when looking for potential value and sleeper picks at The Masters.

• Each of the last 10 winners at Augusta ranked inside the top 30 of the Official World Golf Ranking, with 8 ranking inside the top 20.
• 9 of the last 10 winners of The Masters have posted a top 6 finish or better in a major over the past two seasons.
• 10 of the last 10 winners of The Masters have finished inside the top 30 in one of their past two strokeplay starts.
• 7 of the last 10 winners of the Masters have finished inside the top 5 in a strokeplay event in either the same month of the Masters or the month before.
• 7 of the last 10 winners of The Masters had played in three Masters before winning. Scottie Scheffler (2022), Danny Willett (2016), and Jordan Spieth (2015) were the exceptions.
• No debutant has won The Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Spieth and Jonas Blixt finished 2nd in 2014, Sungjae Im finished T2 in 2020, and Will Zalatoris was 2nd in 2021, so we getting closer to another debutant winner though, in recent years.
• 24 of the last 25 winners made the cut at Augusta the year before their win

These two trends suggest we are looking for:

• Someone who ranks inside the World's Top 30
• Someone who has posted a top finish in a major over the past two years
• Someone who is in good current form

Ticking all of these boxes will be hard because those ranking inside the top 30 and in form are not likely to be bigger than +4000, but let's see if we can find a candidate that at least comes close to ticking these boxes.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The Masters

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of The Masters

2022 - Scottie Scheffler +1600

2021 - Hideki Matsuyama +4500

2020 - Dustin Johnson - +900

2019 - Tiger Woods +1600

2018 - Patrick Reed +5500

2017 - Sergio Garcia +4500

2016 - Danny Willett +6600

2015 - Jordan Spieth +1200

2014 - Bubba Watson +2800

2013 - Adam Scott +2800

As we can see above, 4 of the last 10 Masters winners have been +4000 or bigger the pre-tournament. This gives us hope as we look for a potential longshot to back this week.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Masters

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 Masters. All of these plays are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, to ensure they meet our sleepers and value picks criteria.

Hideki Matsuyama +4400 Outright (Bet up to $1000 Sweat Free on Hideki at FanDuel)

The only reason Hideki Matsuyama is available at these odds is that there is a constant concern surrounding his health. The Japanese superstar has been dealing with neck issues all season, but if he can play pain-free this week, he can win.

Matsuyama ticks the box of having finished top 6 in a major in the past two seasons, having won this one in 2021, and he also finished 4th in last year's US Open.

He also fits the criteria of making the cut in last year's Masters, having finished 14th when defending his title. He was in 2nd place going into the weekend as well, so actually promised more early on.

5th at The Players Championship and 15th at the Valero Texas Open in his past two strokeplay events, Hideki is clearly in good enough form to compete at a course where he has a win, and six more top 20s over his past eight starts.

Matsuyama ranked 10th in SG Tee to Green last week and 11th at The Players, so he's warmed up nicely for this week.

I love how well he played when defending last year, something that is notoriously difficult to do, and now another year removed from his win, and obligations like the Champions Dinner and the media that come with that circus out of the way, I think he's in great shape... if healthy.

Justin Rose +6600 Outright (Get $1250 on Caesars for to bet on Justin Rose)

Justin Rose is enjoying something of a comeback season, which really came to life when winning at Pebble Beach in February.

A 6th place finish at The Players was a nice bounceback after a couple of poor events since that win, and that was enough to get him back on board for arguably his favorite major.

Yes, Rose's career started at The Open Championship, and his sole major victory came at the U.S. Open, but it is Augusta where he consistently shines, and almost certainly should have won at by now.

Rose came closest here in 2017 when losing out to Sergio Garcia in a playoff, but he's also posted another runner-up finish in 2015, behind a rampaging Spieth, a 5th in 2007, where he was 2nd and just one shot back heading into Sunday, and most recently another 7th in 2021 when he led after rounds 1 and 2.

His +6600 odds at Caesars Sportsbook look generous and you should bet on him to lead after round 1 as well, as he's done that four times here in his career.

A winner again, on the cusp of the World's Top 30, and in a Ryder Cup year, Rose will be hoping to take advantage of these last few shots at Augusta.

Danny Willett +21000 Outright (Bet up to $1000 Sweat Free on Willett at FanDuel)

Danny Willett falls short on a fair few trends, but with a troubling weather forecast on the horizon this weekend, the 2016 Masters Champion can contend here, as he comes in with some solid form under his belt.

The Englishman has made five straight cuts and if we go back to the Fortinet Championship back in September, he should certainly have a win on the season under his belt.

Willett certainly blew the Fortinet, but he's picked himself up since, and finishes of 18th at Riviera, and 27th at The Players in particular standout in recent starts.

He's lightly run, having not played since TPC Sawgrass, but he knows this course inside and out now, and after initially struggling when returning as a champion here, he's finished T25 and T12 over the past three years, so he could well build on both here.

He will relish tougher scorer conditions if and when they come, and that vaults him into consideration, at eye-catching odds of 210-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook!