The Masters First Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions: Back Rose For Another Fast Start

The Masters First Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions: Back Rose For Another Fast Start

The Masters is back. The LIV Golfers are playing against the best from the PGA Tour for the first time in 2023, and the best three players in the world all look set to contend at Augusta National. Life is good.

Life will be even better if we can nail the First Round Leader this week, and lock in a profit before the weekend even hits at the 2023 Masters, so let's establish the facts below, and decide how best to approach this year's renewal.

Before we dive in to this week's First Round Leader picks at the Masters, we want to first bring your attention to this incredible Masters odds boost from DraftKings. You can now boost any Masters outright by +1000 with our exclusive DraftKings promo code below, so sign up now and win bigger at Augusta!

Let's take a look at what is typically required to end the day as the First Round Leader, on Masters Thursday.

First Round Leader Strategy for The Masters

The Masters is the only major where we go back to the same course year-on-year which means we build a bank of data that allows us to better understand what is required from a First Round Leader at Augusta.

Do morning starters have an advantage? Is there a particular score a leader typically has to get to each year to lead heading into Friday? All of these questions and more will be answered by looking at the recent first-round leaders of this event, and how they got there.

Below you will see the First Round Leaders at August for the past ten years, and their tee time that day.

• 2022 - Sungjae Im (-5/67) - Teed off at 12:57 pm (PM Starter)
• 2021 - Justin Rose (-7/65)- Teed off at 12:48 pm (PM Starter)
• 2020 - Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, and, Dylan Frittelli (-7/65)- Paul Casey teed off at 7:44 am, and the other two teed off at 12:00 pm. Johnson was off the 1st tee, and Frittelli went off #10. (1 AM, 2 PM Starters)
• 2019 – Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka (-6/66) - Bryson teed off at 1:38 pm and Koepka teed off at 2:00 pm (Both PM Starters)
• 2018 - Jordan Spieth (-6/66) - Teed off at 1:49 pm (PM Starter)
• 2017 – Charley Hoffman (-7/65) - Teed off at 1:08 pm (PM Starter)
• 2016 - Jordan Spieth (-6/66) - Teed off at 09:48 am (AM Starter)
• 2015 - Jordan Spieth (-8/64) - Teed off at 1:15 pm (PM Starter)
• 2014 - Bill Haas (-4/68) - Teed off at 10:08 am (AM Starter)
• 2013 - Marc Leishman & Sergio Garcia (-6/66) - Leishman teed off at 9:28 am and Garcia teed off at 12:57 pm (One AM/One PM Starter)

As you can see from the list above, in only 4 of the past 10 Masters, has the First Round Leader or one of the Co-Leaders come from the morning wave. This is where the line "tradition unlike any other" fits in perfectly, as that goes against the grain on the PGA Tour. It does however mean we can take anyone in the field, knowing there is no real tee time draw bias unless the weather dictates otherwise.

If anything there are higher wind gusts for the early starters this week, calming down as the day goes on, but the general wind speed remains constant throughout the day. The temperature warms up as the day goes on, and that may just be a factor with regard to some better scoring. I wouldn't be put off a morning starter by any means, but looking at recent history here and the current weather report, the afternoon starters may well have a better go at it.

Do not make your Masters Picks in the First Round Leader market, without first looking at the Masters First Round Leader Odds, and then The Masters Round 1 tee times, to see what time your chosen players will tee off on Thursday.

Who Are The Fastest Starters in this Field?

Here are the fastest starters in The Masters field, based on the 2022/23 Round 1 Scoring Average rankings on the PGA Tour

Jon Rahm

• 1st in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2022/23
• Round 1 Scoring Average this season - 67.38
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2022/23 - 64 (Tournament of Champions & American Express)

Scottie Scheffler

• 2nd Round 1 Scoring Average in 2022/23
• Round 1 Scoring Average this season – 68.22
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2022/23 - 65 (World Wide Technology Championship)

Max Homa

• T3 in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2022/23
• Round 1 Scoring Average this season - 68.56
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2022/23 - 64 (Genesis Invitational)

Viktor Hovland

• T3 in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2022/23
• Round 1 Scoring Average this season - 68.56
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2022/23 - 65 (World Wide Technology Championship)

Sungjae Im

• T6 in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2022/23
• Round 1 Scoring Average this season - 68.75
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 65 (Shriners & American Express)

Xander Schauffele

• T6 in Round 1 Scoring Average in 2022/23
• Round 1 Scoring Average this season - 68.75
• Lowest Round 1 Score in 2021/22 - 65 (American Express)

With plenty of events now under each player's belts this season, I think this is a solid reflection of the fastest starters on Tour right now, and we no longer need to include last year's numbers.

It is no surprise to see the top players in the world also leading the way in this category, but it was also particularly interesting to see Augusta specialists like Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, and Xander Schauffele all dominate the Round 1 stats. Could they combine their fast starts, and strong Augusta form, to lead after round 1 here?

What Score Is Required To Lead After Round 1?

A lot typically depends on the weather at Augusta, but taking the average leading score over the past 10 years suggests we should be looking for a player that is capable of shooting a 65 on Thursday.

The average leading score after round one over the past 10 years is 65.8 but I am going to round down based on one outlier year where Bill Haas led with a 68.

The first round leader(s) have shot 65 or better here in 4 of the past 10 Masters, making 65 a good target, and suggests that those who hit a 66 have a strong chance as well.

Masters Odds: Top 5 in the First Round Leader Market

Here are the top 5 in terms of First Round Leader Masters Odds

In the table below, you will find the best price and the implied chance of each of the top 5 in this market.

Masters First Round Leader Selections

Jordan Spieth +2500 (Bet up to $1250 on Caesars and Get Your Stakes Back if You Lose)

We so often see the same names on The Masters leaderboard, and often those players start fast as well, and that is certainly the case for Jordan Spieth who led after Round 1 here, in 2015, 2016, and 2018.

You are going to see a theme in these picks as the article goes on, to suggest I like course form, and maybe there is too much of a case of backing the obvious, but I will take a chance that Spieth can start fast AGAIN this week.

Spieth has his backers in the outright market and I completely understand, but I cannot shake the nagging feeling that his struggles in contention of late, may become too much over the weekend here.

Still, to be in that position, he would have had to of started fast, and I think that will be the case for the Texan once again here.

Spieth led the Sony Open at the end of Round 1 in January, and more recently at the Valspar, he sat one back going into Friday, so he's clearly playing ok on Thursdays of late as well.

Jordan Spieth will tee off in the final group at 2:00 pm with Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau

Xander Schauffele +3300 (Claim a $100 Second-Chance Bet With Unibet)

Xander Schauffele is tied with Sungjae Im in 6th in terms of Round 1 scoring this season, and I think he can post his first round 1 of the season, at Augusta this week.

Schauffele has been inside the top 7 and within three shots of the first round lead three times already this season and he now returns to Augusta, where he has posted some really strong rounds in the past.

Between 2019 and 2021, Xander Schauffele finished 2nd, 17th, and 3rd at this golf course, shooting multiple rounds in the 60s in that time.

In 2019, Xander fired a second-round 65 and a closing round of 68, and in 2020 he added another round in the 60s, with a 67 in round 1, to sit two back of the first round lead. In 2021 he returned once more and his middle rounds of 69 and 68 vaulted him into contention on Sunday.

That second round 65 in 2019 is eye-catching as were his opening rounds of 65 at the American Express and 67 in Phoenix this season.

Xander ranks 9th in SG Approach this season and leads the Tour in approaches from 150-175 yards as well. He also ranks inside the top 10 for 175-200 yards, so he's dialed in, from important ranges.

Schauffele will have to deal with the attention that comes with playing with Tiger, but in the four times they have played together, Xander has beaten Woods twice, and they have tied once. Xander has also shot 69 both of the times he has teed off with Woods on a Thursday.

Xander Schauffele will tee off at 10:18 am with Tiger Woods and Viktor Hovland.

Sungjae Im +4000 (Bet $5, Win $150 Extra With DraftKings)

I love Sungjae Im's chances of contending this week at Augusta, and if he is going to do so yet again, it will likely come from a fast start.

The South Korean star has played here three times, finishing 2nd, MC, and 8th in those starts.

When 2nd in 2020 on debut, he opened with a round of 66 to sit one back of the first round lead. In 2022 he started fast again, this time opening with a 67 and leading by one going into Friday.

You may think lightning won't strike twice, but Jordan Spieth has led here on Thursday twice, Fred Couples was also a two-time first round leader here, and most impressively, Justin Rose has led here four times at end of play Thursday, so repeat performances are clearly possible.

Im ranks 6th in round 1 scoring average alongside Schauffele this season, and he's already sat with two shots of the first round lead four times this season alone.

Sungjae Im will tee off at 10:54 am with Cameron Smith and Hideki Matsuyama

Justin Rose +5000 (Get a $1000 First Bet Bonus With BetMGM)

If we are worried about lightning striking twice with Sungjae Im, how about five times with Justin Rose?

Rose has already led this prestigious event four times on a Thursday and he's been within 3 shots of the lead another three times on top of that as well!

In a hugely volatile betting market, it is a surprise that Rose has already cashed in this market four times in his career, but I am going to bet on it happening once again at 50-1!

Clearly Rose walks up onto the Augusta grounds on a Thursday with every belief he is going to shoot a low round, and that can continue this week.

Rose started fast at the Houston Open in November, and he followed that up with another strong start at the American Express where he opened with a 66.

The Englishman won at Pebble in February and played well to finish T6 at the Players Championship, so he's clearly capable of returning to Augusta and playing well on Thursday once again.

Justin Rose will tee off at 1:00 pm with Corey Conners and Dustin Johnson