Charles Schwab Challenge Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Davis, Palmer to Win at Colonial

Charles Schwab Challenge Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Davis, Palmer to Win at Colonial

After an incredible week at the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge. You would normally expect a number of players to take a week off this week, but there is still a strong field this week at Colonial.

World No.1, Scottie Scheffler leads the field this week and is joined by the player who finished in a tie for 2nd with him last week, Viktor Hovland. Joining them is Texas favorite, Jordan Spieth, and the defending champion, Sam Burns, whilst Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa round out the top of the odds board.

Colonial has hosted this event since its inception and it is one of the most respected and revered courses on Tour, so this should be an epic week in Fort Worth.

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What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge?

When looking for the perfect profile of a potential winner at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, the following stats stuck out to me.

• SG Tee to Green - Each of the last five winners have ranked 9th or better in SG Approach the week they won
• Par 4 Scoring - The last five winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge ranked inside the top 7 in Par 4 Scoring the week they won. Four of those winners ranked inside the top 3.
• SG Putting (Bentgrass Greens) - This is another week where we will see Bentgrass Greens and of the last five winners, four have ranked 8th or better in SG Putting the week they won. The exception is Justin Rose who ranked 21st.

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Trends

The Charles Schwab Challenge has been held at Colonial since its inception, and that means we have plenty of consistent data to work with. Let's look for some trends displayed by the winners, ahead of the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge.

• Each of the last ten winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge have posted a top-8 finish in of their six recent starts
• Four of the last seven winners posted a T14 finish of better at Colonial the season before their win
• You have to go back to 2001 for the last time a player (Sergio Garcia) won their first PGA Tour title at Colonial

This suggests we are looking for a player who has:

Posted a top 8 finish amongst his past six starts

Has a previous top finish at Colonial (T14 or better)

Someone who has already won on the PGA Tour

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Charles Schwab Challenge?

Let's take a look at the last ten winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge, to determine whether sleepers and value picks can win at Colonial.

To qualify as a Sleeper and Value Pick, you must have been +4000 or bigger pre-tournament.

2022 - Sam Burns +3000

2021 - Jason Kokrak +5000

2020 - Daniel Berger +7000

2019 - Kevin Na +7000

2018 - Justin Rose +2000

2017 - Kevin Kisner +3300

2016 - Jordan Spieth +700

2015 - Chris Kirk +3500

2014 - Adam Scott +1800

2013 - Boo Weekley +10000

The Charles Schwab Challenge has gone through ebbs and flows throughout the past decade, with favorites like Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott hitting over the past decade, but longshots definitely win here. When you look at the honor list here, it is a bunch of big names retrospectively, but a lot of the winners did so at bigger odds.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can contend this weekend at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge.

Cam Davis +5000 (Get a $100 Second Chance Bet at Unibet)

Cam Davis is finding his form again having posted three top 7 finishes in his last five strokeplay events, including at last week's PGA Championship.

That T4 finish last week at Oak Hill was his best finish of the season so far, and it came courtesy of a final round 65 on Sunday.

Even during his struggles, Cam Davis has been gaining strokes off the tee, but it is his iron play that has improved in recent weeks and is leading to better results. At both the Heritage and the PGA Championship Davis gained strokes with his Approach, ranking 14th and 10th in SG Approach in those weeks, and if he can take that up another notch again in Texas, he can compete.

The Australian ranked 4th in SG Tee to Green in both of those weeks and now he can roll that form into another strong week at Colonial, where he finished T7 last year.

Davis was the first round leader here last year, and he also has a bunch of correlative form which I like to see ahead of this tournament.

Top 15 finishes at the Wyndham Championship, John Deere Classic and the FedEx St Jude all tie in nicely here, as does his strong effort at the WGC Match Play this year. He suffered a group exit in the latter, but he was playing well before losing to a red-hot Xander Schauffele, who won their group.

I like the Match Play as Sam Burns and Kevin Kisner have won both events, and Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have finished 2nd here, and finished runner-up and won the WGC Match Play respectively. Matt Kuchar also has a stellar record in both events.

I like the other courses I named due to the number of short irons and wedges required at those courses.

Ultimately, Davis is playing better again and looks capable of winning an event like this, especially with the likes of Scheffler and Hovland coming off a taxing week at the PGA Championship.

Chris Kirk +5500 (Get $250 in Bonus Bets With PointsBet)

Chris Kirk continues to be undervalued in the betting market, and I believe that to be the case again this week at Colonial.

Kirk is a former winner of this event, and his win earlier in the year at the 2023 Honda Classic was his 5th on the PGA Tour. What we can take from that, is that he's a multiple winner on Tour, and with one of those coming on this course, it only gets better.

Sure, Kirk has cooled off since that win at the Honda Classic, where he likely breathed a huge sigh of relief after winning for the first time in eight years but the good news is, even during this "fall off" he's been competitive.

Since his win at the Honda Classic, Kirk has posted one more top 10 on the PGA Tour and that came at the Texas Open. Kirk was 4th going into Sunday that week, and he went to Augusta the following week and finished T23 at The Masters. He added another top-30 finish at the PGA Championship last week, and given neither of those courses set up that great for him, I think his form may be better than it first reads.

Kirk's iron game was better last week than it was in his past two starts and if that trend continues I think he can contend at a course he knows and loves.

In 12 starts at Colonial, Kirk has never missed the cut, and on top of his win, he has six more top-16 finishes to his name, two of which came on his last four visits.

He was 5th going into the final round here 12 months ago, and he can take enough confidence from last week's performance to finish in that position or better here at Colonial this week.

Ryan Palmer +12000 (Get a $1000 No Sweat Bet on Ryan Palmer With FanDuel)

Ryan Palmer is trending in the right direction which is incredible timing for someone playing at their favorite course on Tour this week.

Palmer and his caddie are both members at Colonial Country Club, and whilst I wouldn't normally put too much stock into home course advantage, the Texan has shown over the years it pays off in his case.

He hasn't won this tournament yet in his career, but Palmer has posted four top 6 finishes over the past 15 years here, and now he can contend once again.

Palmer finished 35th at the Wells Fargo Championship two starts ago, and was in 2nd place going into Friday, following an opening round 66. Palmer then followed that performance up with an 8th place finish at TPC Craig Ranch, where he was the 54-hole leader, eventually finishing 8th.

Palmer ranked 3rd in SG Tee to Green and 8th in SG Approach last time out, so he's got an opportunity to really take some form into Colonial, where he is more than familiar with his surroundings.

At the time of writing, Ryan Palmer is tied for 2nd in his local qualifying tournament for the U.S. Open, so he's clearly full of confidence right now and a home game should bring the best out of him.