Memorial Tournament Sleepers and Value Picks: Can Fowler or English Win at Muirfield Village?

Memorial Tournament Sleepers and Value Picks: Can Fowler or English Win at Muirfield Village?

After a big week at Colonial where former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, Emiliano Grillo won for the first time since 2015, an elevated field now heads to Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament.

Jack's Place is one of the best stops on Tour, as Jack Nicklaus plays host to a huge Memorial Weekend event. A course and event fitting of the occasion, this event also gets the field to go with it again in 2023.

As the large majority of the world's best golfers will be here this week there is plenty of value to be found, and it is down to us to decide who is the best of those longer shots this week. Let's look into what makes a good sleeper and value pick at the Memorial Tournament this week.

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What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Memorial Tournament

With years of course form to go by, we know exactly what type of players excels at Muirfield Village, and below we have outlined the most important statistics.

• SG Tee to Green - It's never a surprise when the leader in SG Tee to Green wins on any given week, but each of the last three winners of this event has ranked 1st in this category, with Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau ranking 2nd and 12th before that run.
• SG Around the Green / Scrambling - Around the Green play could come into the equation this week as each of the last four years the winner has ranked inside the top 5 for SG Around the Green the week they won. Each of the last five winners has ranked inside the top 7 of the more traditional, Scrambling statistic.
• Par 4 Scoring 450 - 500 Yards - Six of the Par 4s sit inside this range, and all of them rank inside the top 9 in terms of difficulty on this layout. Navigate these stronger Par 4s well and you can win here.

Memorial Tournament Trends - How to Find a Winner at Muirfield Village

Here are some recent trends that may just help you find a winner this week at Muirfield Village.

• Since 2011, only three golfers outside of the world's top 38 have won this event. Those three came wins all came consecutively from 2015 - 2017.
• Since 2011, only two golfers have won the Memorial Tournament without already having two PGA Tour wins to their name before.
• Since 2011, only one golfer has won this event on their course debut. (Hideki Matsuyama, 2014).
• Since 2011, only two golfers have won the Memorial Tournament without already posting two top 10s on the PGA Tour that season.

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• Someone who ranks inside the top 40 in the Official World Golf Rankings
• Someone who has posted two top-10 finishes this season
• Someone who has already won twice on the PGA Tour in the past

It is not going to be easy to tick off all these boxes and be a sleeper this week, but we will find the players that best fit the mold whilst still qualifying under the odds criteria.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The Memorial Tournament?

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the Memorial Tournament

2022 - Billy Horschel +6000

2021 - Patrick Cantlay +2200

2020 - Jon Rahm +2200

2019 - Patrick Cantlay +1800

2018 - Bryson DeChambeau +5000

2017 - Jason Dufner +6600

2016 - William McGirt +20000

2015 - David Lingmerth +50000

2014 - Hideki Matsuyama +6600

2013 - Matt Kuchar +2200

The pre-event odds for the past ten winners suggest we can get a longshot winner here, but this is now an elevated event for the first time. We could very easily get a short-priced winner this week, but I am still happy to pick a few from the +4000 range and above.

Without further ado, let's look at the players who are priced at +4000 and bigger, who I believe can contend at Jack's Place this weekend.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Memorial Tournament

Rickie Fowler +4500 (Bet $1 on Fowler, Get $200 Guaranteed on Bet365)

Rickie Fowler has been on fire this season, and since he reunited with Butch Harmon, his swing has looked in excellent shape.

It is very likely that Fowler will win again, either this season or next and I am willing to bet that first win in four years comes here at Muirfield Village.

Since making his debut here in 2010, Fowler has played here 14 times and it was on his debut that he put in his tied-best finish here. Fowler has twice finished runner-up here, and in 2010 he was the 54-hole leader.

In more recent years, he has finished 11th and 14th and on both of those occasions, he was inside the top 7 at the halfway stage.

Now with a reinvented golf swing and a strong bank of current form, there is very little reason to doubt Fowler's chances at +4500!

Fowler missed the cut at the 2023 PGA Championship, but outside of that one week, Fowler has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his last eight events.

His 6th last week at Colonial was his best effort of 2023 so far, and this week he can better that once more.

Si Woo Kim +8000 (Get a $1000 No Sweat Bet on Kim with FanDuel)

Si Woo Kim has been sneakily consistent all season, with a win at the Sony Open being the peak so far.

In both 2016 and 2021, Kim had a chance to put together two-win seasons, losing out in a playoff both times, but I think 2023 is the time for him to finally put together a multi-win season.

Last week, Si Woo Kim finished T29 at Colonial, which bettered his previous best of T66 at that course, and that is a great sign.

Kim has ranked top 20 in SG Approach in 4 of his past 8 starts, and inside the top 17 in SG Tee to Green in two of his past three events, so he's hitting the ball nicely as he continues to play solidly week on week.

The 4-time winner, who has also lost three playoffs in his PGA Tour career now returns to a course where he has finished 18th, 9th, and 13th and he can find a win in elite company once again.

Harris English +12500 (Get a $250 Bonus When you Bet on English with PointsBet)

Harris English looks to be back from the wilderness after overcoming injury troubles once again, as he's finished 2nd at Bay Hill, 3rd at Quail Hollow, and 12th at both Riviera and Colonial!

There were many who considered Harris English a sneaky pick for the PGA Championship, which held plenty of substance, considering his recent record in major championships.

Despite his popularity at Oak Hill and the fact that he was inside the top 3 for the first three rounds last week at Colonial, English is still available at triple-digit odds, and I think he presents great value this week.

English has already finished 13th and 18th at this course in the past and considering English has ranked 2nd and 9th in SG Approach and 7th and 11th in SG Tee to Green in his last two made cuts, he's got to be worth chasing here at 125-1.

Byeong-Hun An +12500 (Get a $250 Bonus When you Bet on Byeong Hun-An with PointsBet)

With two picks in triple digits, I hope you will forgive me for making a fourth pick as opposed to my usual three in this column.

That is because I truly believe Byeong-Hun An is on the way back, and he may just take inspiration from Emiliano Grillo, who won for the first time in year's last week at Colonial.

An ranked 4th in SG Tee to Green in three of his past five starts and he's also ranked 8th and 14th in SG Approach in recent years as well. That ball striking has provided a solid foundation for An in recent weeks, and now it is time for him to step up and contend once more.

In three of his last five strokeplay starts, An has finished inside the top 21, and he now returns to a course he absolutely loves.

Last week An was 6th going into the final round at Colonial and now he returns to Muirfield Village where he's come closest to winning on the PGA Tour.

An lost in a playoff to Bryson DeChambeau here in 2018, and he has three top-25 finishes either side of that as well.

His course form here is fuelled by strong off-the-tee play, and he's certainly living right now as well.