Travelers Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Henley, Lee at TPC River Highlands

Travelers Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Henley, Lee at TPC River Highlands

The 2023 U.S. Open is now in the books, as the now two-time PGA Tour winner, Wyndham Clark outlasted Rory McIlroy to win at Los Angeles Country Club.

Now, the world's best need to pick themselves up again, and head to Cromwell, Connecticut for the 2023 Travelers Championship.

We know all about this event and indeed the golf course, as TPC River Highlands has hosted this event 1984, so we do not have much to learn about this layout.

This will likely be a completely different Travelers Championship though, as this is the first time it will be an elevated event, and as such we will see a far stronger field than normal, at this event.

One thing that does happen when the best players are all in one place though, is that you will see bigger odds on some of your favorite golfers, and this makes the Sleepers and Value picks column slightly easier this week.

This does make it a harder tournament to win though, and looking at the designated events so far, the only surprising winners in them this season, have been Kurt Kitayama (Bay Hill) and Wyndham Clark (Wells Fargo), and the latter has just won the U.S. Open.

Let's take a lock at what is required to win the Travelers Championship, and any trends that might point you towards a long shot winner this week.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Travelers Champinship, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $5 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the 2023 Travelers Championship?

We have a strong bank of course form to look at, with TPC River Highlands one of the longest serving courses on the PGA Tour.

Let's find out which stats have correlated the closest to success here over the years.

• SG Tee to Green - Obviously SG Tee to Green is going to be a focal point on any given week, as it covers all Strokes Gaines metrics barring putting. Each of the last five winners have ranked inside the top-8 in this category the week they won this event.
• SG Off the Tee - This course does allow shorter hitters to contend here, but of the last five winners, only Dustin Johnson (46th) has ranked outside the top 15 in SG Off the Tee the week he won.
• Par 4's 400-450 Yards - There are eight Par 4 holes at this course that sit between 400-450 yards, which is a huge focus on one key yardage range. This is not typical, and it may well be worth looking at those that excel in this yardage range.

Travelers Championship Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends for this week's Travelers Championship.

• 7 of the last 8 winners have finished T31 or better at this course, before winning here.
• Excluding the 2020 renewal, which was not played after the U.S. Open due to COVID, 8 of the last 12 winners have played in the U.S. Open the week before . This will likely continue this week, as we have a stronger field here, due to the elevated status.
• Prior to Kevin Streelman's win in 2014, 6 of the previous 8 winners were winning their maiden PGA Tour title. Since 2014 though, every winner had already won at least once on the PGA Tour, before getting their win here. 5 players who would be winning their maiden PGA Tour title have finished 2nd/T2 here since 2014 though.

These trends may just help narrow down your selection pool this week.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Travelers Championship?

Let's take a look at the last ten winners of the Travelers Championship, to see what odds they were pre-event.

It is important to note this event was generally one where a couple of elite players top the field and it was an otherwise weaker field, but this time we have an incredibly strong field.

To qualify as a Sleeper and Value Pick, you must have been +4000 or bigger pre-tournament.

2022 - Xander Schauffele (+2000)

2021 - Harris English (+4500)

2020 - Dustin Johnson (+3000)

2019 - Chez Reavie (+7000)

2018 - Bubba Watson (+3300)

2017 - Jordan Spieth (+1000)

2016 - Russell Knox (+5000)

2015 - Bubba Watson (+1400)

2014 - Kevin Streelman (+15000)

2013 - Ken Duke (+15000)

5 of the last 10 winners would have qualified as a Sleeper and Value pick in this column, but ultimately it is a lot of big names winning here, especially in recent years. With elevated event status this may well continue, but let's look into who could break through the elite group at the top of the betting board.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Travelers Championship

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can contend this weekend at the 2023 Travelers Championship.

Russell Henley +6000 (Bet up to $1000 Sweat-Free on Russell Henley at FanDuel)

Russell Henley is very quietly putting together a really strong season, and after another strong major finish last week at the U.S. Open, I think Henley can contend at a course he has loved over the years.

Henley finished 14th last week, adding to 16th place finishes at Colonial and the Memorial over his past four starts. The only blemish over his past nine events came at the PGA Championship, where he missed the cut, but to counter that, he'd finished T19 at the Players and the Heritage and 4th at the Masters, in the build up to that event.

Course history wise, Henley has been brilliant here at TPC River Highlands, finishing 6th, 11th, 19th and 32nd at this course, but that doesn't even tell the whole story.

In 2016, when he made his debut, he was the 36-hole leader, and was 2nd going into the final round. Two years later, he finished 6th, and was again in the mix earlier in the week, sitting 2nd after 36 and 54 holes. Most recently, Henley finished 19th in 2021, but he was 3rd after 54 holes, sitting just one shot back. Clearly he can get into contention here, and now is the time for him to piece together four rounds.

Henley has gained strokes on Approach in nine-straight events, and his short game has looked good in this span as well, so if he can improve off the tee, especially on a course he loves, he could vault to the top of the leaderboard.

The former Georgia Bulldog blew away the field earlier in the season at the Mayakoba, and he was also within three of the lead at Memorial going into the final round, so he's been in the mix multiple times this season and could well be again.

Tom Kim +5000 (Bet up to $1000 sweat-free on Tom Kim with FanDuel)

Tom Kim reminded us of just how good he is last week at the U.S. Open, and after a lean spell in terms of results, it looks as though Kim is ready to step forward again.

Kim was 4th best in the field in terms of SG Approach according to Data Golf's U.S. Open numbers, gaining over 7.7 strokes in that department, and he gained across the board this past weekend, which is good to see.

A poor short game had led to two missed cuts heading into the US Open, and also prevented him from finishing higher than T23 at the Wells Fargo. If he can find his form in the short game department again this week, he could be a threat.

We have seen some correlation between golfers playing well here and at both the Wyndham Championship and the Scottish Open, and Kim has finished 1st and 3rd at those two events respectively. This makes sense given the birdie-fest nature of this event and the shorter yardage, and I think he is worth chancing after a big week.

This is more of a gut feel play, as it feels like it could be a chance to get a big talent at a longer number, but we don't have any evidence of how he will take to this course, as it is his event debut.

Min Woo Lee +8000 (Get up to a $250 Bonus When Betting Lee at BetRivers)

In 2019, Chez Reavie finished T3 at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach then came here a week later and won. Two years later, Harris English finished T3 at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, and then came here a week later and won. Now I am going to chance that Lee goes from a T5 finish at a Californian U.S. Open, and contends for his first PGA Tour title.

There is more to it than that though for Min Woo Lee. First of all, he's just a huge talent. You can tell by his strong major finishes and DP World Tour wins that he's a high upside player, and it's one of those wins on the European Tour that caught my eye specifically.

In 2021, Min Woo won the Scottish Open. A year later, Xander Schauffele won the same tournament at the same course, whilst Patrick Cantlay (T4) and Jordan Spieth (T10) also featured. Xander is the defending champion this week, Jordan Spieth is a former winner, and Patrick Cantlay consistently features at this event. This can of course just be coincidental that strong players play well at another course, but if there's anything more to it, on top of that California US Open/Travelers crossover, you have an intriguing pick this week.

Lee's best performance in the United States came at the Players Championship where he finished T6, and was 2nd going into the final round. Both TPC Sawgrass and TPC River Highlands are Pete Dye courses, so that may age well also.

At +8000 I will take a shot at a player full of confidence, on a course that may well suit.

Austin Eckroat +15000 (Get up to a $250 Bonus When Betting Eckroat at BetRivers)

This number is crashing quickly and rightly so, but if it goes below 100-1, leave it alone, because there's still some volatility involved with backing a young talent like Austin Eckroat.

Eckroat finished 47th on his debut here two years ago, so we have an idea of how he can play the golf course, and he now returns a more polished player, who is in his best form of his career to date. Eckroat posted finishes of 2nd, 16th and 30th going into the U.S Open, and thanks to a final round of -5 he finished T10 at Los Angeles Country Club. The Travelers has always been a great platform for young players, and whilst they haven't been winning of late, players like Sahith Theegala and Beau Hossler have had chances to breakthrough here in recent years, and that is typically easier to do in birdie-fest events, where the best player's in the world lose some of their edge. Eckroat has gained on approach in five straight events, and ranked 12th in that statistic last week, and he's also gained off the tee in eight straight events, so once he sorts his short game out, we will likely see another spike finish like his 2nd at the Byron Nelson.

Whether that will come in this level of field remains to be seen, but at triple-digits I will take a shot, especially as he will be half this number once the big guns take a week off.

Chez Reavie +40000 (Bet up to $1000 Sweat-Free on Reavie at FanDuel)

Forgive me a fifth pick, but I just couldn't leave this one out.

There's no getting away from it, this is a flier, but it's a 400-1 shot that certainly comes with some substance, and that makes it worthwhile.

Firstly, Reavie is a former winner of this event. After finishing T3 at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Reavie won here, and won big. His six-shot lead after 54 holes was the largest lead in tournament history, and he eventually won the event by four shots.

Reavie has finished 46th, 25th, and 8th in his three starts here since that win, and when you add that to an 11th many moons ago, it is clear Reavie likes the layout at TPC River Highlands.

The three-time PGA Tour winner posted back-to-back top-11 finishes at the Texas Open (6th) and the Heritage (11th) either side of the Masters, and while his most recent starts read 40-40-58-25, there may be more to like than the results suggest.

Reavie closed out the final round of the Canadian Open with a back-nine 28, the tied-lowest 9-hole score this season, and he was closer to the leaders at Colonial (7th after round one, 12th after round two) before a poor weekend.

Looking at Reavie from a statistical standpoint, he has gained strokes on the greens in nine straight events, which is usually a weakness for him, and he's also flashed with his irons in recent events, ranking 17th at the PGA Championship and 8th at the Canadian Open, in SG Approach.

With him pegging it up at a course he loves this week, it makes very little sense to overlook at him at 400-1.