John Deere Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Smalley, Reavie to win at TPC Deere Run

John Deere Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Smalley, Reavie to win at TPC Deere Run

If you thought the odds board looked rough at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, wait until you see the John Deere Classic odds.

With such a weak field, it is unsurprising the odds are so short on a group of players at the top of the betting market who generally to this point, have not yet proven they can win on the PGA Tour. That is always going to be the case in an event like this, and it would be no surprise to see players like Denny McCarthy or Adam Schenk break through for their first wins here, but we are looking for players further down the odds board here.

Let's look at the very best prospects at +4000 and bigger, who can win here this week, at the John Deere Classic.

With a strong mix of up-and-coming talent and wily veterans, there looks to be some value at the John Deere Classic after all.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 John Deere Classic, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $5 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the 2023 John Deere Classic

This is a point-and-shoot event, where you generally need to get to -20 to have a chance of winning. Let's look at what goes into getting to that score here.

• Par 4 Scoring - The last four winners of the John Deere Classic have ranked 1st or T1 in Par Scoring the week they won the John Deere Classic
• SG Putting - Michale Kim led the field in SG putting in 2018 and Frittellii finished 2nd, whilst Lucas Glover (19th) and J.T. Poston (31st) made the putts when they mattered and generally had a good week
• Approaches from 125-150 Yards - Plenty of approaches come from this range at TPC Deere Run, and this is a key proximity range if that is something you like to focus on.

John Deere Classic Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends I like the look of for the John Deere Classic

• 10 of the last 13 winners of the John Deere Classic have made at least one start on the course in the past
• Both J.T. Poston and Lucas Glover, the past two winners of this event, had posted a top 10 in one of their previous four starts coming into the event
• Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, and Jordan Spieth have all won both this event and the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial.
• Jordan Spieth and Kenny Perry also won the Travelers, where recent John Deere Classic winners, Brian Harman, Ryan Moore, and J.T. Poston have also finished runner-up.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the John Deere Classic

This is a weak field and typically that is the case at the John Deere Classic, so you will generally have to take shorter odds this week but do players win this event at 40-1 or bigger?

2022 - J.T. Poston (+5000)

2021 - Lucas Glover (+5000)

2019 - Dylan Frittelli (+9000)

2018 - Michael Kim (+30000)

2017 - Bryson DeChambeau (+5000)

2016 - Ryan Moore (+2500)

2015 - Jordan Spieth (+400)

2014 - Brian Harman (+12500)

2013 - Jordan Spieth (+4000)

2012 - Zach Johnson (+1200)

Apart from Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth who were winning this event for the first time and were amongst the best in the field, we can see this has been a great event for longshots!

This looks like a great event to take a chance on a sleeper.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 John Deere Classic

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can win the 2023 John Deere Classic.

Alex Smalley +4000 (Get a $150 Bonus When You Bet $5 on Smalley at DraftKings)

Alex Smalley is hitting his irons really well lately, ranking 8th and 3rd in his past two starts in that category. In addition to that recent run, Smalley has gained strokes in 11 of his past 12 starts overall with his irons, and just needs a good week on the greens to contend.

9th at the Travelers, 18th at the Wells Fargo, and top 25 finishes at both the PGA Championship and the Canadian Open, Smalley is in good shape and looks more than capable of contending for his first win here.

I like the Travelers, Colonial, and the Wyndham as comps for this course and Smalley has finished T9, T27, and T13 at those three events respectively.

Smalley ranked inside the top 10 for each of the last three rounds last week in SG Approach, and now just needs to combine a strong iron game with a streaky putter, to get himself in the mix for his first win, at a course that looks suitable.

He finished 47th here on debut but was 18th going into the weekend, and last year he returned, finishing 16th with a closing round of 66. There's clearly something he likes about this event, and ones like it, and I just can't ignore his form with the irons, in such a weak field.

Doug Ghim +6000 (Get a $150 Bonus When You Bet $5 on Ghim at DraftKings)

Doug Ghim is the sort of young(ish) talent that could break through at this event for their first win, and he threatened to do so two years ago here when he was 7th after round 1, 12th after round 2 and ultimately finished 18th.

Ghim has gained strokes on Approach in 6 of his 7 events and has top 20 finishes at Colonial, Travelers, and the Wyndham which I love for this event.

It won't take a lot for Ghim to go from a top 20 finisher in recent events to a contender here, and it might just be the drop in field quality that does it.

Chez Reavie +7000 (Get a $250 Bonus When Betting on Reavie at PointsBet)

We were on Chez Reavie at 400-1 at the Travelers and that is a big drop in odds, but when you finish T4 in that quality of the field, and then return to a course you love having finished inside the top 30 again last week, it must be expected.

Reavie led the field in Approach last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and it is the form with his irons that put us on him at TPC River Highlands. That iron performance last week was his best since he finished T16 at Pebble Beach in 2021, and I think he's timed this run of form perfectly.

Now he's in a weaker field again, I think we should keep the faith with Reavie who has now made 9 of his last 10 cuts, finishing inside the top 25 on four occasions. Two top 6 finishes at the Travelers and the Valero Texas Open bode really well ahead of this week.

There is so much correlation between success at the Travelers and Colonial and form at this event, and Reavie has won at the Travelers and has a top 5 at Colonial to his name.

At 70/1 he is too big considering he has finished 5th here in the past and just two years ago was 3rd going into the weekend at this event, before eventually finishing 18th.

Lucas Glover +8000 (Bet $1000 Sweat-Free on Glover at BetMGM)

Lucas Glover returned to form last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and as he goes from one birdie-fest to another, I am happy to take a chance on a veteran that found his putting stroke last week.

It is no secret Glover's short game has always held him back and as a result, this ball-striking machine has had limited success on TOUR, but let's not forget this is indeed a former major winner, and in a year where Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, and Jason Day have all ended baron spells, we are constantly reminded that class is permanent.

It's fair to say that Glover isn't quite in the same group as those players mentioned, but he is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour, which cannot be said for a lot of the players in this field, and in a market that is led by non-winners, I will take a chance on someone who has done it multiple times in his career, and as recently as 2021 at this very course.

J.T. Poston showed last year what a strong recent finish can do in this event, as he finished 2nd at the Travelers before winning here, and I think Glover can use last week's 4th as a similar springboard.

6th last week in SG Approach, 10th in the same category in Canada, and gaining strokes in general with his irons in 8 of his past 9 starts, Glover is doing what he needs to contend here, so hopefully his new putting technique holds up again this week.

Glover has a win and three more top 15s in this event, so should not be overlooked now the field quality has dropped significantly.