2024 3M Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Van Rooyen, Spaun in the Twin Cities

2024 3M Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Van Rooyen, Spaun in the Twin Cities

After a couple of 'nearly weeks' we are overdue a winner in this Sleepers and Value Picks article, and we can find one here at the 3M Open.

This is a relatively new event, having only been added to the PGA Tour schedule back in 2019, but we have already seen an eclectic mix of winners. Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, Lee Hodges. These are the five players to win this tournament so far, and barring Finau, all of them can be considered sleepers.

There is plenty of reason for optimism in the Twin Cities this week then, as we search for the next player at +4000 and above to win this week's event.

We will look at the stats profile of the former winners, betting trends, and more as we look to unearth a gem on the 3M Open odds board.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 3M Open?

Here are the key stats I will be looking at this week, as I try to find a winner further down the odds board. These stats have been important over the past five renewals and will likely remain that way in 2024.

SG Approach- Cameron Champ ranked 19th in SG Approach, but the other four winners ranked inside the top four, with Lee Hodges leading the field en route to victory last year. This obviously makes sense given the number of birdie looks needed to keep up with the scoring here at TPC Twin Cities.

Par 4 Scoring - Tony Finau, Michael Thompson, and Matthew Wolff all lead the field in Par 4 Scoring the week they won here, Cameron Champ and Lee Hodges ranked 2nd and 3rd in that category as well. You have to play those holes well here to contend.

Birdie or Better Percentage - Look for players with strong birdie or better percentage numbers, as you look for an ideal course fit for the 2024 3M Open. This was a similar case made at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and similar players tend to do well at both.

Bentgrass Putting - While you do not need to lead the field in putting to win here, Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ did, Lee Hodges ranked 4th and it is only Finau (42nd) and Wolff (39th) that give hope to mediocre putters.

Course Experience - I do think seeing this course is vital, even if you haven't played it well. I looked back at the players who have finished in the top 5 and tied here over the past two years, and every single one of them had played at least two rounds in this event before.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the 3M Open?

Below are the odds of each of the first five winners of this tournament, since its inaugural staging in 2019.

2023 - Lee Hodges +8000

2022 - Tony Finau +1400

2021 - Cameron Champ +15000

2020 - Michael Thompson +12500

2019 - Matthew Wolff +17500

All but one of the winners so far have been +8000 or bigger, with three of the five winners +12500 and bigger. That might not be too much of a surprise given its spot in the schedule and the general field strength. For the past two years, we have seen players come over from weeks at the Scottish Open and Open Championship, so it is not a surprise we have had some surprise winners.

3M Open Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

The 3M Open is still relatively new, so I do think we should take any trends with a pinch of salt, but it is worth looking at some of the standout betting trends so far, to see if they sway any of your decisions.

Course Experience Over Course Form - Matthew Wolff won the first staging of this event, but every winner since has teed it up here at least once before winning. Finau had finished 3rd at the course before winning here, but Cameron Champ had missed the cut on debut before winning here, Michael Thompson had only managed a T65 finish, and while Lee Hodges' 16th was impressive enough, it wasn't a surefire indication he would go on to win here.

Current Form Not Necessarily a Factor - Feel free to get weird with your picks here. Finau had been in decent form all year, but Wolff had only played in three events before winning, making just one cut. Thompson had posted one top 10 and one further top 25. Champ had missed plenty of cuts, albeit finished T11 the start before. Hodges had been solid, with 8 top 25s including one top 10. You can find something this week out of nowhere, such is the easiness of the course.

Previous Career Win Helpful - Aside from Matthew Wolff who had just turned pro, every other winner here had won at some level before winning this event. Lee Hodges was the least experienced of the winners, having won just once on the Korn Ferry Tour three years prior, whilst Michael Thompson had just once on the PGA Tour, but also once on the Korn Ferry. Finau and Champ had both picked up 2 wins on the PGA Tour before winning here.

Correlating Course: Detroit Golf Club Provides Clues

We have only seen six renewals of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and five of the 3M Open, but already we have seen plenty of crossover.

• Tony Finau has won both events
• Matthew Wolff has won the 3M Open and finished 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage
• Bryson DeChambeau has won the Rocket Mortgage and finished 2nd at the 3M Open
• Collin Morikawa has been 2nd in both events
• Adam Hadwin lost in a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has been 4th and 6th here
• Sungjae Im (2nd here, 8th Rocket Mortgage), Troy Merritt (7th here, 2nd and 8th 3M Opwn), and Wyndham Clark (5th 3M Open, 8th Rocket Mortgage) have top-eight finishes at both courses, Lucas Glover and Danny Willett have finished inside the top seven at both courses and Brian Stuard and Ryan Armour have finished inside the top six at both venues.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 3M Open

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 3M Open.

Erik Van Rooyen +4000 (FanDuel)

A glance at his course form will be enough to put people off Erik Van Rooyen, but as I have stated above, players have overcome poor course form to play well here in the past, and I think the South African is the next to do so.

He's been excellent on and off all year, following on from his win in Mexico at the tail end of last year. 8th at the Mexico Open, 2nd at the Cognizant Classic, 4th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, and 6th at the Rocket Mortgage this year all point to high upside, and I think he has the skill set to impress here.

21st in SG Off the Tee and above average in distance, suggests he will be fine from a distance perspective, he's just got to avoid water, which has been his nemesis over the years.

7th in SG Approach and 12th in SG Tee to Green last time out in Scotland where he was 8th going into Sunday, I think Van Rooyen is primed for another big week and hopefully another win.

Sam Stevens +5500 (bet365)

Sam Stevens looks to have taken a leap this year, and I am hoping he can ride that improvement to a breakthrough win here at the 3M Open.

He was 10th here last year on debut, and when you look at his best finishes on the PGA Tour, you will find a 10th at the Rocket Mortgage, when we were on him a few weeks ago.

That course form, correlative form, and his ability to drive it well off the tee all point to Stevens having another good week here, as he goes in the hunt of a third top 10 on the PGA Tour Season, and a 6th top 20 overall.

The worry would be his irons that are trending in the wrong direction, but I think he can overcome that at a resort course and just have himself a week here.

Max Greyserman +7500 (FanDuel)

Max Greyserman is performing very consistently right now, and I don't think it would take much of a leap to turn solid form into contending here in the Twin Cities.

Starting with a T21 finish at the U.S. Open, Greyserman has now finished 31st or better in five straight events, with his 13th-place finish last week the pick of the bunch.

He ranks 14th in Driving Distance, 34th in Driving Distance - All Drives, and in two of his last three starts he has led the field in SG Off the Tee. These are all encouraging as he comes to a course where you can separate yourself off the tee, and while his irons will need to improve to get right in the mix, he's shown in the past that they can flash at any point.

A player is finding his feet right in front of our eyes at this level and T21 finishes in both the U.S. Open and Scottish Open, both far better fields, suggest he can keep up with the leaders here, and his two T2 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 suggests he knows what it feels like to be in the mix, even if he didn't get over the line.

Look for Greyserman to let it rip with the driver and set up plenty of chances in the Twin Cities.

J.J Spaun +11000 (FanDuel)

Spaun hasn't played that well here in the past, but last year he was inside the top 10 after 36 holes, and his form is picking at the right time to pick up a win in a weaker field.

While others will look for distance off the tee when it comes to longshots, I am happy to take a punt on Spaun, who has just finished 10th at the Rocket Mortgage, 23rd at the Jon Deere (6th after 54 holes), 45th at the ISCO and then 29th last week when he was leading at halfway.

Based on quality alone, I think Spaun should be higher on the odds board than this, but given his recent turnaround in form, and the fact he's been in the mix somewhat in three of his last four starts, I think he is being overlooked here.

Spaun has ranked inside the top 12 in SG Approach in each of his last three starts, so he's clearly dialed in and can show that on this sort of course.