2024 Genesis Scottish Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Rai, Detry in Scotland

2024 Genesis Scottish Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Rai, Detry in Scotland

After a weak field assembled, and quite frankly decimated TPC Deere Run, we are back for another high-quality event, as Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and many other stars assemble for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.

This is the precursor to the British Open, and while some players will simply be gearing up for the season's final major at Royal Troon, plenty will prioritize this week, as they look for a big win in Scotland.

Thanks to the return of Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa, we have plenty of opportunity to win big at this event, with many players priced at +4000 and bigger for the Scottish Open.

Since this event became a co-sanctioned PGA Tour event we have seen Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy win, but we have also seen Kurt Kitayama and Robert MacIntyre finish 2nd, so there's scope for a big winner.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Genesis Scottish Open, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your first bet wins. Bet on one of these picks below, and get an additional $150 if your wager wins. This promo is perfect for those looking to bet on one of the favorites like Rory McIlroy or Xander Schauffele this week, as you secure a huge bonus if they win.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Scottish Open?

This has been the truest form of an all-around test, with a complete Tee to Green game required. Let's look at the most important stats.

SG Tee to Green- Every winner here at the Renaissance Club has ranked inside the top 4 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, with Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy both leading the category over the past two years. Three of the past five winners ranked inside the top 7 for SG Approach, but Aaron Rai and Min Woo Lee both ranked outside the top 20 in Approach and won here.

Links Form - You are going to want evidence that a player enjoys links golf, rather than hoping they will. We have had some odds names, like David Lingmerth, Alex Smalley and Brandon Wu populate the top 10 here over the years, but finding a player who you know has excelled in these playing conditions will be a huge advantage.

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards - There are 10 Par 4s on this Par 70 course, with five of them longer than 450 yards, and one more at 448 on the scorecard. Positive play on these longer Par 4s is going to be key to keeping your scoring on track. With just three Par 5s, birdies will need to be made on some of these longer holes.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Scottish Open?

Below are the pre-tournament odds of each winner since the event moved to the Renaissance Club in 2019.

2023 - Rory McIlroy +800

2022 - Xander Schauffele +1800

2021 - Min Woo Lee +10000

2020 - Aaron Rai +5000

2019 - Bernd Wiesberger +4000

Before the Scottish Open became the co-sanctioned event it is today, this was a course that produced longshot winners, with all three previous winners falling under the sleepers and value picks category.

Since PGA Tour players made up half the field we have seen Xander Schauffele pick up a second-straight win at +1800, following victory at the Travelers Championship, and Rory McIlroy win at +800. Considering both only won by a single stroke, against Kurt Kitayama and Robert McIntyre though, there is still plenty of hope for those further down the odds board.

Scottish Open Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

The Scottish Open moved to its current venue in 2019 and has only been a co-sanctioned event for two years, so it's not the easiest event to spot betting trends, but let's see if anything sticks out from the past few years.

Winning Form Key - Min Woo Lee won his second DP World Tour title here in 2021, as did Aaron Rai 12 months prior, but we have otherwise seen Bernd Wiesberger, Xander Schauffle, and Rory McIlroy win here. This is a list of experienced winners, who had plenty of winning memories to lean on.

Scottish Open Experience - Each of the five course winners here had played in at least one Scottish Open before, and that is actually a trend that fits the last 12 winners of this event, even those held at different courses. It's an event that rewards those who know what it's all about.

Travelers Start Important? - Xander Schauffele had won the Travelers a fortnight before winning here in 2022, and Rory was coming off a T7 finish there before his win here 12 months ago. The two runner-ups, Robert MacIntyre and Kurt Kitayama had played in Europe the week before instead, but it looks like TPC River Highlands might have been a worthwhile warm-up.

Correlating Course: Scottish-inspired Muirfield Village Worth Consideration?

Muirfield Village plays host to the Memorial Tournament, and Jack Nicklaus' design is influenced by Muirfield in Scotland, where Jack won his first Open. That course is just around the corner from this one, so it is perhaps not a surprise we have seen some leaderboard crossover.

Just looking at the past couple of years specifically, we can see the following crossover.

• Rory McIlroy - Won Scottish Open, 4th Memorial
• Xander Schauffele - Won Scottish Open, 8th Memorial
• Patrick Cantlay - 2x Memorial Winner, 4th Scottish Open
• Scottie Scheffler - Won Memorial, T3 Scottish Open
• David Lingmerth - Won Memorial, T3 Scottish Open
• Byeong Hun An - Play-off Loser at Memorial, T3 Scottish Open
• Tyrrell Hatton - T6 Scottish Open, T12 Memorial
• Cameron Tringale - T6 Scottish Open (First Round Leader), T16 Memorial
• Lee Hodges - T12 at Both
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout - 4th Memorial, T16 at Scottish Open

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Scottish Open

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Scottish Open.

Aaron Rai +5000 (BetMGM)

The only reason to fade Aaron Rai this week is the feeling that it is too good to be true because the Englishman looks set to break through on the PGA Tour soon, and as a course winner here at Renaissance, he might not get a better chance.

Rai won here in 2020 before the field strength was what it is now, but he still had to take down Tommy Fleetwood in terrible conditions that week. Since then, he has seemingly elevated his game and found a consistent floor that he can play to on the PGA Tour.

Either side of winning here, his course form reads MC-35-MC-MC, which will worry a few, but given the consistency of his irons, and the fact he has been in contention in each of his past two starts, now is the time for Rai to step up again here.

Rai finished 2nd to Cam Davis at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a fortnight ago and then just last week finished 7th again when he was the 36-hole leader, and still in 2nd place going into the final round of the John Deere Classic.

Outside of his win here, Rai has a 2nd at the Irish Open, a 3rd at the Scottish Championship, a T9 at the 2018 Scottish Open at Gullane, another local course, and also a further top 10 at the Irish Open. He clearly has links pedigree and ability to play in the UK and Ireland, and he's worth backing again this week. Last week's T7 was his fourth top-20 in a row, so he's bang in form for this one.

Thomas Detry +8000 (FanDuel)

From a former winner at this course to a runner-up, Thomas Detry will look to avenge his playoff loss here in 2021, with a win this week in a stronger field.

Like Rai, Detry has shown plenty of form in 2024, notably when runner-up at the Houston Open, and then 4th at the PGA Championship and T14 at the U.S. Open. Add these to a 4th at Pebble Beach earlier in the year and you have a rock-solid candidate, especially given his course form.

Detry is 5/5 for made cuts here, finished 2nd in 2021, losing in a playoff, and 10th the year after, when finishing strong after a slow start. Last year he could only finish 42nd, but he opened with a round of 64 to sit 3rd after day one, and he can keep it going for all four rounds this week.

Great iron play and extraordinary putting helped him to a 14th-place finish at the U.S. Open and it was an all-round brilliant short game that helped him to a 4th-place finish at the PGA Championship. A really strong week tee-to-green will put him in the mix here, and he was inside the top 5 for that category in both 2021 and 2022 here, so there's every chance that happens.

Erik Van Rooyen +10000 (BetRivers)

Erik Van Rooyen has shown plenty of life in 2024, following a win in Mexico late in 2023 which kickstarted his PGA Tour career once again.

Before he was a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, Van Rooyen was a repeat performer on links golf courses, finishing 14th and 6th in his first two starts here, as well as inside the top 20 in his first two Open Championships. Add in a 4th at the Irish Open, and his excellent record of shooting low rounds here, and you have a great candidate for a longshot winner in Van Rooyen.

On his debut here, Van Rooyen opened with two rounds of 64 which saw him hold the halfway lead, and he went into Sunday in 2nd place following a 67 on moving day. A round of 72 saw him slide down the leaderboard, but he returned a year later to finish 6th, courtesy of a final round 65. He could only finish 68th here last year, his first made cut since that 6th in 2020, but he did shoot a second-round 63, and his form this season suggests another good week could be around the corner.

8th at the Mexico Open, 2nd at the Cognizant Classic, 4th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, and 6th last time out at the Rocket Mortgage, Van Rooyen has shown plenty to suggest he's ready to contend again in familiar surroundings.

Matteo Manassero +50000 (FanDuel)

After picking three players who honed their craft on the DP World Tour before furthering their careers in America, let's take a stab at a truly European player.

Matteo Manassero had the world at his feet after winning every year for the first four years of his DP World Tour career, all by the age of 20. He won twice before he turned 18, and then added the BMW PGA Championship to his trophy cabinet to become the youngest winner at 20.

These feats were nothing new for Manassero who was the youngest winner of the British Amateur Championship (16), which saw him qualify for the 2009 Open Championship. He went on to finish T13 that week, picking up the Silver Medal. Next, he became the youngest player to make the cut at the Masters, a record he has since lost, but this all goes to show the pedigree of this player.

After years in the wilderness, Manassero finally fought his way back last year, winning twice on the European Challenge Tour, before winning again on the DP World Tour earlier this year.

Since winning again, the Italian has posted three top-10 finishes, two of which have come in his last three starts, highlighting his current form and confidence levels. His iron play looks really solid of late, ranking 15th or better in SG Approach in 5 of his last 6 starts, and now is the time for the now 31-year-old to prove his quality all over again, on the biggest stage.

Manassero hasn't played at this course, but he has finished 3rd and 4th in this event in 2016 and 2014 respectively, and with two top 20 finishes in the Open Championship, one of which was held in Scotland, I am confident he has the ability to make an impact here.

When finishing 19th at Hoylake in 2014, Manassero was one shot shy of Rory McIlroy's opening-day lead and also shot the tied-second best score on the Saturday as well, so he clearly has plenty of links pedigree, and that plus two top 10s in his last three suggest he might be overlooked here.