2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hodges, Stevens in Detroit

2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hodges, Stevens in Detroit

After a run of three events that saw two signature events and a major, we return to a regular PGA Tour event, at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

With the Memorial, the U.S. Open, and the Travelers all demanding elite fields, it is no surprise that this is a weaker field, as has been the case over the years, here at the Detroit Golf Club.

Last week's runner-up, Tom Kim gives this event some star power alongside Cam Young, who shot a 59 at last week's Travelers Championship. Add in Akshay Bhatia and Min Woo Lee and you have four strong players at +2200 and shorter, meaning there is some value further down the board.

After coming so close with Tom Kim, who lost to Scottie Scheffler in a playoff last week, we are knocking on the door again for a winner at +4000 and bigger, and we can find one at the Rocket Mortgage this week.

Let's get into the latest odds, trends, and picks for this week's event.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Here are the main things I will be focusing on when looking for a Rocket Mortgage Classic winner this week.

Bentgrass/Poa Putting- Putting will obviously be key in a birdie-fest like the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and players who putt confidently on Bentgrass/Poa greens will have a distinct advantage in that respect.

Tee to Green - Every single winner here at Detroit Golf Club has ranked inside the top 4 in SG Tee to Green the week they won the event. For most, this has been led by strong iron play, but Bryson DeChambeau dominated off the tee here the week he won.

Birdie or Better Percentage - Look for players with strong birdie or better percentage numbers, as you look for an ideal course fit for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic. You cannot win here without going seriously low, with the winning score ranging from -18 to -25 since the first renewal in 2019.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Below are the odds of each of the five winners here, since the event was first introduced to the PGA Tour in 2019.

2023 - Rickie Fowler +1400

2022 - Tony Finau +1400

2021 - Cameron Champ +15000

2020 - Bryson DeChambeau +700

2019 - Nate Lashley +25000

While Nate Lashley and Cameron Champ will give value hunters hope, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, and Rickie Fowler have all won here at short odds, and it would be no surprise to see Tom Kim turn his recent form into another win. Given his suitability to low-scoring events, he should relish this test. We will take him on this week, especially as he has played a lot of golf of late, as has Akshay Bhatia.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

The Rocket Mortgage Classic is a relatively new event, so there isn't as much to go by, but let's see if there is anything we can garner from the five renewals here so far.

Don't Let Course Form Put You Off - Nate Lashley won the first-ever renewal so he couldn't have played here before, but Bryson DeChambeau won on debut, Cam Davis won after missing his first two cuts here, and Tony Finau had only finished T53rd here before winning. Rickie Fowler had finished T12, and he was the only one with a positive experience before winning here.

Previous Top 10 on the Season a Sign - Every winner had already finished inside the top 10 that season, before winning here. Bryson DeChambeau and Rickie Fowler had recorded 7 top 10s, Finau had recorded 4 (with a win), while Cam Davis and Nate Lashley posted just one top 10 on the season before winning here.

Previous Career Win Helpful - Nate Lashley and Cam Davis both picked up their first PGA Tour win here, but they had both won at the Korn Ferry Tour level and had multiple wins at a lower level. Finau (3), DeChambeau (5), and Fowler (5) were all regular winners at this level before winning here.

Correlating Course: TPC San Antonio Provides Plenty of Correlation

There are many courses people will draw correlations with, with TPC Twin Cities at the 3M Open chief among them. I like this link as well, but in the interest of providing a new link, I want to introduce a crossover between the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Valero Texas Open.

Below are the results that lead me to believe that the Texas Open is worth a look when finding a winner of this event.

• Troy Merritt - 8th, 2nd, 14th, 17th Rocket Mortage - 4th Valero Texas Open
• Adam Hadwin 2nd and 4th here, 4th Valero
• Lucas Glover 4th here, 4th Valero
• Peter Kuest 4th here, 10th Valero
• Adam Schenk 7th here, 5th and 7th Valero
• Justin Lower 8th here, 25th at Valero (12th best OWGR finish)
• Alex Noren 4th and 9th here - Back-to-Back top 15s at the Valero
• Peter Malnati 9th here, 13th and multiple top 25s in Texas
• Taylor Pendrith 2nd here, 2nd at TPC San Antonio in two KFT events, one on this course, one on Canyons
• Chris Kirk - four top 21s here and two top 10s at the Valero
• J.J. Spaun - 8th here - Winner of the Valero Texas Open
• Charley Hoffman, 10th here - Win, Three 2nds and a 3rd at the Valero Texas Open
• Matt Wallace 10th here - 3rd Valero
• Russell Henley 10th here - 4th Valero
• Scott Stallings 10th here, two 13ths Valero
• Si Woo Kim 14th here, 4th Valero
• Joaquin Niemann 2nd here, 6th Valero
• Hank Lebioda 4th here, 17th Valero (13th best OWGR finish)
• Brandon Hagy 6th here, 17th here (17th best OWGR Finish)
• Ryan Armour 4th here, 6th Valero
• Wes Roach 3rd here, 16th Valero
• Brian Stuard 5th here, 4th Valero
• Brandt Snedeker 5th here, 4th and 6th Valero
• Patrick Reed 5th here, 2nd Valero
• Cameron Tringale 5th here, 5th, 8th and 9th Valero

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Matt Wallace +5500 (FanDuel)

I picked Matt Wallace at the KLM Open when he was the +1600 favorite, and while he was lackluster on the Sunday, he played well on the week.

That followed up four straight made cuts on the PGA Tour, including a 4th at the Byron Nelson, a 20th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, and 43rd at the PGA Championship, where he was 12th at halfway, before a 27th at the Canadian Open.

Instrumental during this run has been his ball striking, and if he can keep striking the irons as well as he has, he can put himself in contention here at a golf course he's had success at in the past.

In his first two starts here, he finished 12th and 10th, and while he could only finish 78th last year, he was inside the top 25 after round 1, suggesting he still likes this track.

In addition to his efforts here in the past, Wallace has also finished 2nd at the Valero Texas Open, a course I like as a correlation.

He's been a steady operator who has won on the PGA Tour and also got in contention on multiple occasions already in his career, so I can definitely see him doubling his tally here.

Adam Svensson +6000 (DraftKings)

Adam Svensson has made 11 cuts in a row, and that has been built on consistently gaining strokes on approach and off the tee. He hasn't had any spike weeks on approach yet, hence why he hasn't contended during this run, but I think that can change here.

24th at the Charles Schwab, 27th at the Memorial Tournament, and 16th at the Travelers Championship last week, Svensson is edging closer to the first page of the leaderboard, and I think he can find it this time.

A 15th-place finish at the 3M Open gives additional reason for hope, as that is a course that has provided plenty of crossovers, and I don't think it will be long before he gets in the mix at this course.

He finished 24th here two years ago but was sat 9th after 54 holes, and a year later he finished 40th, with two promising rounds.

Last week he posted rounds of 64 and 63, and when he was 51st at the Texas Open, he opened with a 69 to sit 8th and closed with a 67, which is form I like.

Adam Svensson was the last man in for me and replaced Mac Meissner on my card, so make of that what you will...

Sam Stevens +6600 (bet365)

Sam Stevens had a couple of chances to win on the PGA Tour in 2023, finishing 2nd behind Corey Conners at the Valero Texas Open and 3rd at the Corales.

It is obviously the form at the Valero that I love, and when you couple that with a T10 finish at the 3M Open and another 14th place finish at the Texas Open, Stevens has all the form I am looking for.

Sure, he didn't play great here last year, but he did play all four rounds after making the cut, and he arrives in much better form this time around.

Last time out, Stevens had a golden opportunity to win on the Korn Ferry Tour for the first time, and while he didn't close it out, this was a continuation of the good form he had shown at this level, when 4th at the Zurich Classic, 10th at Myrtle Beach, and 14th at the Canadian Open.

He has made 8 of his last 9 cuts, likes this type of event, and is the perfect candidate for a breakthrough winner of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Lee Hodges +7000 (FanDuel)

Lee Hodges won the 3M Open by 7 strokes last year, so he fits that correlation, and his T6 finish at the Valero Texas Open only adds to that great form line.

I picked Hodges at the Memorial where he flattered to deceive, despite being in the top 20 after rounds 1 and 2. Coming into that event he finished 24th, 12th, and 12th in the three events leading in, and he closed out the Travelers Championship with a final round 65 last week.

He now returns to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he was 3rd after both rounds 1 and 2 in 2022, before falling away over the weekend. I imagine if he found himself in that same position this time around he'd be better prepared now he's a winner at this level and a brilliant one at that.

Hodges is hitting his irons really well right now and he can ride those to a big week here if he can get the putter working in Detroit.