Sony Open In Hawaii Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Corey Conners, J.T. Poston Impress In Hawaii?

Sony Open In Hawaii Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Corey Conners, J.T. Poston Impress In Hawaii?

After a thrilling week in Maui, the PGA Tour hops an island to Honolulu for the first full field tournament of the year, the Sony Open. This event has been one of the longest running tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule, and it has been contested every year at Waialae Country Club since the tournament’s inception in 1965. The Sony Open is rich with history. In 1983, Isao Aoki became Japan’s first ever PGA Tour winner. In 2004, this tournament was the first to grant a sponsor’s invite to Michelle Wie at 14 years old.

This year, the Sony boasts one of its strongest fields in its long history. Si Woo Kim will return to defend his title, and he will be joined by an impressive trio European Ryder Cup stars in Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Ludvig Aberg, who will all be making their Sony Open debut. Former champions such as Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, and Russell Henley, will all look to build upon their impressive track record at Waialae, a course that has been kind to its former winners. Reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, Brian Harman, as well as last week’s winner, Chris Kirk, and runner-up, Sahith Theegala, will also be making the short trip across the isles.

Sony Open In Hawaii Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: January 11, 2024 - January 14, 2024
• Opening Tee Time: 7:00 pm - 10:30 pm ET
• Where to Watch: Golf Channel, Peacock

Sony Open in Hawaii: Course Preview

Waialae Country Club

Waialae Country Club is a stark departure from the gargantuan fairways and dramatic elevation changes that we saw last week at Kapalua. Waialae exists on a flat piece of property, and features far smaller landing areas and putting surfaces. Designed in 1927 by famed golden age architect, Seth Raynor, Waialae has certainly had a difficult time keeping up with modern technology. Tom Doak was brought in a few years ago for a renovation, which ultimately had very little impact on how the course played at the professional level.

Wind can always play a factor, but under tranquil conditions, Waialae is one of the more benign tests on Tour. Outside of a wind-affected year in 2020, Waialae has played as one the top five easiest par 70s each of the last nine years. Measuring just a hair over 7,000 yards, it plays as the eighth-shortest course on Tour. Last year, it ranked 30th out of 45 courses in difficulty, and while the wind generally presents enough pushback to prevent it from playing as easy as what we saw last week at Kapalua, the second stop on the Aloha swing is by all accounts another birdie-fest.

In terms of the actual layout, Waialae is a standard par 70 featuring four par threes, 12 par fours, and two "par fives," which essentially play as glorified par fours and rank as the easiest set of three-shotters on the PGA Tour. In totality, the par threes provide the most pushback. All four play between 176 and 204 yards and rank as the fifth, sixth, seventh and 14th toughest holes on the course, with three of the four historically playing over par.

Of the 12 par fours, while none are drivable, nine out of the 12 play under 460 yards.The only true long par fours are the 1st and 13th, and they respectively play as the first and third most difficult holes on the course. The par fives could certainly use an upgrade. The ninth hole in particular measures just 506 yards, yields a scoring average of 4.33, and features over a 60% birdie rate and a 6.5% eagle rate. The fact that nine of the 12 par fours measure between 350 and 460 yards also explains that this event is nearly always won by the player who presents the best combination of mid- to short-iron play and putting inside 15 feet.

Waialae Key Stats

• Proximity 150-200 yards
• Course History
• Opportunities Gained

Sony Open In Hawaii: Outright Picks

Corey Conners (+3300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

I've had a lot of success at this event over the years, and I can confidently say that the two main pillars of Waialae are short- to middle-iron play and comparative course history/course history. Conners is one of the few in the field to check both of these boxes with flying colors. In five appearances at Waialae, Conners has made every single cut, with four consecutive top-12 finishes in a row. He's also gained over 7.5 strokes ball-striking in three of his last four starts here.

The Canadian also ranks ninth in overall approach play and 17th in that key range of 150-175 yards, where nearly 30% of all approach shots come from. Conners ranks sixth in this field over the last two years in strokes gained total on short golf courses, gaining over a stroke per round, with a strong record already at Colonial and Harbour Town as well. Conners ranked top-10 in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach at Kapalua, but a faulty short game and putter held him to a middling finish. This is the exact type of performance we were looking for, as his price will be kept in check based on his finishing position. We can still capitalize.

J.T. Poston (+4000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

I was incredibly high on J.T. Poston last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and after a fifth-place finish, I see no reason to hop off. Even more encouraging is the fact that the ball-striking really came alive for him over the weekend. Poston gained strokes to the field off the tee and on approach both on Saturday and Sunday, shooting a combined 15-under par.

Now he travels to a golf course that will further accentuate his short to middle iron play. While Kapalua was a solid fit for Poston’s game, he tends to play his best golf on shorter courses. Over the last two years, Poston ranks fifth in this field in strokes gained total on courses under 7,200 yards, gaining over a stroke and a half per round to the field. He also ranks top-20 in opportunities gained and birdies or better gained, and I have little concern about his ability to keep up in a low scoring affair. I expect Poston to pick up his third PGA Tour victory this week in Honolulu.

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