Sony Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on J.T. Poston, Matt Kuchar in Hawaii

Sony Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on J.T. Poston and Andrew Putnam in Hawaii

Chris Kirk landed us a +20000 win last week at The Sentry, and now we are hoping for another win in Hawaii!

The Sony represents the first full-field event on the PGA Tour in 2024, and that means we have a great opportunity to spot some value down the betting board.

Three Europeans dominate the top of the board at the Sony Open, as Ludvig Aberg is the +1400 favorite, ahead of English duo, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, who are both +1600!

CLICK HERE to find the best odds for each golfer in this week's Sony Open field.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii?

The Sony Open is a resort course, where if the winds are down, you can eclipse the 20-under mark throughout the week.

Unlike Kapalua last week, there are tight fairways here, lined with trees, and there is very little reason to bomb it and instead, accuracy is favored off the tee.

SG Approach - It's fairly obvious once again. Whether it is a short iron or wedge in your hand, you need to hit it close here at the Sony Open to win, and you will want to look at those excelling in the short approach ranges.

Bermuda Putting - While these greens are much smaller than the one's last week, they are also Bermuda greens and the speed is similar, so it is worth keeping an eye out on who putted well last week. Two of the past five winners have ranked 1st for SG Putting the week they won, and another ranked 3rd, so it's been important!

Course History - This is one of the most predictive courses on the PGA Tour, and we see the same names pop up every year, so this is a time to focus on course history. Whether that is the style of test, the fact that the same types of players start each year fast, or a bit of both, either way, experience at Waialae has been important.

Sony Open Betting Trends

We have already noted that this is one of the most predictive courses on the PGA Tour, so let's look at the trends that contribute to that.

Experience is key - 9 of the last 12 winners had made 150+ starts on the PGA Tour. 12 of the 12 had won 2+ times across the tours in their careers, and 11 of them had 3+ wins.

Need a look at the course? - 11 of the 12 had played the Sony Open before and 9 of them had played the event 2+ times. Russell Henley (2013) was the last player to win here on debut.

Recent performance is key - Despite a big break for a lot of players coming into this Sony Open field, all of the past 12 winners had finished 38th or better in their most recent start. 9 of them had played the Sentry, but even those three who were not in Hawaii the week before had made the cut and finished inside the top 40 on their last start. Si Woo had finished T35 at the Houston Open before winning here, Cam Smith had finished T10 at the Australian PGA Championship, and Russell Henley had ended 2012 with form figures of 1-3-1-T6 on his last four starts on the Korn Ferry before winning on his PGA Tour debut here.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Sony Open?

Here are the winning odds for every winner of the Sony Open since 2010.

2023 - Si Woo Kim (+4000)

2022 - Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)

2021 - Kevin Na (+6600)

2020 - Cameron Smith (+5500)

2019 - Matt Kuchar (+4000)

2018 - Patton Kizzire (+8000)

2017 - Justin Thomas (+1400)

2016 - Fabian Gomez (+10000)

2015 - Jimmy Walker (+1800)

2014 - Jimmy Walker (+4000)

2013 - Russell Henley (+10000)

2012 - Johnson Wagner (+12500)

2011 - Mark Wilson (+8000)

2010 - Ryan Palmer (+25000)

Yes, sleepers and value picks do win the Sony Open, and the average winning odds over this period are 73-1, so there is every chance of bagging a 40-1+ winner in back-to-back weeks.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Sony Open

Here are my favorite picks at +4000 or bigger for the 2024 Sony Open.

J.T. Poston +4000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Poston With FanDuel)

J.T. Poston is a very solid PGA Tour player, who can absolutely win when the course suits, and despite modest course figures, I think that is the case this week.

Finishes of 3rd, 6th, and 8th at the RBC Heritage, and a 10th place finish at Colonial bode well from a course correlation point of view, and his efforts here are perhaps better than they appear on the surface.

Poston has played here 6 times, never finishing better than 20th, and also missing two cuts in that span, but in isolation, there have been some very good rounds.

The last time Poston missed the cut here (2021) he had actually opened with a 65 and was 10th after round 1, and he clearly took confidence from that week. He has since finished 42nd and 20th, and both times he has shown some good form. In 2023, Poston once again started fast, opening with a 64 to sit 8th, and then closing out with a 66 to bounce back from two quiet rounds. Last year, he was more consistent all week, shooting 67-66-67 to open, before a final round 69 saw him fall 11 places to 20th.

So while it is evident that Poston has failed to put four rounds together here, he's also shown great flashes here, and I think this is the year he can put it all together and post a career-best finish in Hawaii.

Poston finished 5th last week, and that was his second top 5 in his last three events, and even when 44th in between at the RSM Classic, he opened and closed with a 66, and it was just a 70 in round 2 that cost him a top 20 finish.

At 40-1, I think you are getting great value on a two-time PGA Tour winner, who could eventually fall in love with this course.

Matt Kuchar +5000 (Bet365) (Bet $5, Win $150 on Matt Kuchar With Bet365)

Matt Kuchar has been rolling back the years in recent months, and he looks more than capable of winning still on the PGA Tour, especially on a course where veterans prosper.

Kuchar finished 7th at the Fortinet where he was in contention through 54 holes, trailing Sahith Theegala by three going into Sunday. He followed that up by finishing 19th at the Andalucia Masters, and 2nd at the World Wide Technology Championship, where he was the 54-hole leader.

His final event of 2023 saw him finish 53rd at the RSM Classic, but he was in contention for half the event as well. After round one, Kuchar sat in 6th, and a round later he was inside the top 5. Weekend rounds of 69-70 saw him fall away, but that would have been the third time in five starts he was in contention going into Sunday, so maybe some fatigue finally kicked in.

In his last 10 starts at the Sony Open, Kuchar has finished inside the top inside the top 10 seven times, including a win, 13th on one other occasion, and he has missed just two cuts.

Not many, if any play Sony better than Kuchar in this field, and given his form at the tail-end of 2023, I think he can kick off the new year in a big way.

Andrew Putnam +5000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Poston With FanDuel)

Andrew Putnam is a player I followed reasonably closely last season, and I thought he was on the verge of breaking through for a second PGA Tour win, and his first outside of an opposite-field event.

One place where Putnam has looked close to winning over the years is the Sony Open, having finished 2nd and 4th over the past five years.

Putnam finished 2nd to Kuchar in 2019, and he was in that position after every single round that week, even after opening with a 62 on Thursday.

The one-time PGA Tour winner ended 2023 with a closing round of 62 at the World Wide Technology Championship, where he finished 5th, and even last week when 40th he finished strongly.

40th in a limited field is nothing to shout about, but Putnam closed with rounds of 67 and 64, to save face after opening 74-71 on the very easy Kapalua.

Putnam can carry that weekend momentum from The Sentry into a top finish here.

Matti Schmid +20000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Schmid With FanDuel)

I was only going to go for three picks this week, but I cannot resist a flyer on Matti Schmid this week at the Sony Open.

The German was in red-hot form on both sides of the pond at the end of 2023 and could have arguably won on both tours. First at the Andalucia Masters where he was the 54-hole leader, and then again at the Bermuda Championship where he finished 3rd.

Schmid ended the year with finishes of 17th and 4th in back-to-back weeks in South Africa, and until we see otherwise, he's playing far too well to be 200-1!

Even when he was 17th in South Africa he was 4th after 54 holes, so he's been consistently inside the top 5 in recent starts.

His 3rd in Bermuda was encouraging in terms of coastal form, as was his start at the World Wide Technology Championship, where he was inside the top 10 after two rounds, and I think he can carry on this form.

He has to be worth a punt at 200-1.