Farmers Insurance Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Theegala, English at Torrey Pines

Farmers Insurance Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Theegala, English at Torrey Pines

Golf starts on Wednesday this week, as the PGA Tour avoids going up against the NFL Championship games on Sunday. This means the players will head to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open a day earlier than planned.

We are here to bring you our favorite picks for this event at +4000 and bigger, as we look for a second winner in this article in 2024.

At the top of the market here are several big names, including Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa. What is most notable though is the players who are missing, which includes Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm, who has defected to the LIV Tour.

With Cantlay and Schauffele both winless since 2022, there will be plenty of interest in taking on the top of the market, which we will do this week.

Torrey Pines generally produces a top-class winner, with Tiger Woods largely dominating here in the past, while the likes of Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, and Max Homa have all won this event in recent years.

CLICK HERE to find the best odds for each golfer in this week's field, as a strong field arrives at Torrey Pines.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

There are two courses here at Torry Pines, the North, and the South, and players will want to go low at the North when they have the chance. The South Course at Torrey Pines demands strong play off the tee, and scoring is at a premium here.

Justin Rose got to -21 here in 2019, but generally speaking, -15 is going to be enough to win this event.

SG Approach - This might as well be a mainstay in the article each week, and it is no surprise Torrey Pines requires strong iron and wedge play again. Of the last five winners of the Farmers Insurance Open, four of them have ranked inside the top 5 for SG Approach, with Patrick Reed the exception. Reed instead relied on a razor-sharp game around the greens.

Poa Annua Putting - The North Course features Bentgrass greens, but those making the cut this week will be dealing with Poa Annua greens on the South Course for three rounds, and this is a unique putting surface. Many players struggle on Poa, but some thrive as well, and it is those players you want to look at this week.

Total Driving - There are so many courses that let you go away with wayward driving on the PGA Tour, but the South Course at Torrey Pines isn't one of them. At almost 7,800 yards, you do not want to be playing from the rough, so look for the players leading in Total Driving in recent events. This factors in both Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance.

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Trends

We know what to expect from the Farmers Insurance Open by now, but here are some other betting trends that might help you with making your picks this week.

OWGR Ranking Key - 9 of the last 12 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open were ranked 33rd or higher at the time of winning this tournament. Two of the exceptions were Scott Stallings and Luke List, who you would consider surprise winners, but the other was Jon Rahm, who picked up his maiden win here in 2017. He's gone on to do quite well, hasn't he?

Experienced Pros Prosper - 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 27 or older when winning the Farmers Insurance Open. Again, Jon Rahm was the exception.

Winning Experience Important - 11 of the last 12 winners had already won at least twice on the PGA Tour before winning here. Luke List picked up his maiden win here in 2021 and is the only exception, but he's very experienced and has had multiple chances to win before winning here. He has previously lost in a playoff and had been a 54-hole leader on more than one occasion on the PGA Tour.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Here are the winning odds for every winner of the Farmers Insurance Open since 2012.

2023 - Max Homa (+2200)

2022 - Luke List (+9000)

2021 - Patrick Reed (+2500)

2020 - Marc Leishman (+5500)

2019 - Justin Rose (+1400)

2018 - Jason Day (+2200)

2017 - Jon Rahm (+5500)

2016 - Brandt Snedeker (+1800)

2015 - Jason Day (+1400)

2014 - Scott Stallings (+25000)

2013 - Tiger Woods (+750)

2012 - Brandt Snedeker (+2200)

While in terms of reputation and name value this an event generally reserved for the very best in the game, multiple players have won here at +5500 and bigger. This gives us hope as we look for a winner at +4000 and bigger!

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open

Here are my favorite picks at +4000 or bigger for the 2024 Farms Insurance Open.

Sahith Theegala +4000 (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Theegala With FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala picked up his first PGA Tour win late last year, and that was also in California, as he impressively won the Fortinet Championship.

Theegala then kicked off 2024 in the same way he ended in, by contending for a PGA Tour title, this time at The Sentry. Theegala was the first-round leader in Hawaii to kick off the year and finished the week in 2nd place thanks to a final round 63.

Chris Kirk looked very likely to win for much of the final round in Hawaii, but Theegala put him under pressure and made him earn it over the final couple of holes.

He failed to follow that effort up at the Sony Open, missing the cut there, which is why I think we are getting attractive odds on him. I don't mind that at all though, as that is not a course I expect him to perform well at.

Now though, Theegala returns to Torrey Pines, where he has already played three times in his career, including at the US Open. He missed the cut at the US Open, but his two starts at this event have yielded finishes of 25th and 4th, and that is encouraging.

Before getting his first win at the Fortinet Championship, that was the only knock on Theegala, who had multiple chances to win before that. Now though, we know he is more than capable of getting over the line, and he is the type of player that belongs at the top of the odds board.

Theegala was inside the top 5 for all four rounds last year, and inside the top 10 for his first two rounds on debut, so he's been inside the top 10 after 6 of his 8 rounds here and is tremendous value at +4000.

Harris English +5500 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 on English With Bet365)

Harris English has started the season off well, finishing 14th and 10th in his first two starts of the year in Hawaii, and now returns to a course he likes.

English was 6th after 54 holes at the Sentry and closed out the Sony Open with a 64 to finish 10th there, and he's yet to find his best ball-striking in 2024.

There is of course a concern that he doesn't find that ball striking in time to contend here at Torrey Pines, in which case he might struggle this week, but at +5500 I am happy to bet on the upside of Harris English.

The top 10 or so in this field are very strong, but after that, it starts thinning out fairly quickly, and English will put himself in the mix for best of the rest, at 55-1 there is some value in him based on his course history here.

In recent years, English's best effort at Torrey Pines came when finishing 3rd at the U.S. Open, when all four rounds were played at the South Course, but he's also finished 2nd and 8th in this very event.

English was one of three players who lost to Jason Day in a playoff here in 2015, and he's finished 14th and 8th since, so he's worth chancing at these odds.

There hasn't been much to shout about for English in recent years when it comes to his form here at the Farmers, but I think that will turn around, as he's got off to a hot start to the year.

Patrick Rodgers +8000 (Bet $5, Get $150 Guaranteed on Rodgers With FanDuel)

Patrick Rodgers is not a player I bet often, and I admit it's been a little hard for me to envisage him winning, but at Torrey Pines, I will take a chance.

This isn't as deep of a field as we would normally see at this event, with the absence of Jon Rahm in particular felt this week, and that opens up some opportunities across the board for me.

Players like Theegala and English are the first beneficiaries that come to mind when I consider the lack of depth at the top, but then I am looking for a player who has great course form and the right game for this event, and Rodgers ticks those boxes.

At 801, you are getting a player who has finished 4th and 9th here in the past, and when 4th he was actually the 54-hole leader. He didn't convert that week and hasn't since, but I do think he is trending toward another big performance.

14th and 24th in Hawaii means he kicks off 2024 in solid fashion, and that followed a strong end to 2023, where he was in contention through three rounds in Australia before eventually finishing 26th.

Sure, it might just be another case of Rodgers playing well and ultimately falling short as he has done so many times in his career. Or it could be an opportunity for him to pick up his win on one of the most historic courses, just like Luke List did. Eight years List's junior, Rodgers hasn't quite entered his space of "overdue" but the former Stanford standout is of that ilk, and certainly in that category.

A good driver of the ball on his day, and a player that tends to play well in tough scoring conditions (think Bay Hill and Quail Hollow), I do like Rodgers as a dark horse this week.

We have seen so many times in his career whether it be here or at Riviera, that he loves playing on the West Coast, and it would be no surprise if his first win came in this region.