AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Yu, Kitayama to Impress

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Yu, Kitayama to Impress

It is time for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and this year it has been upgraded to a signature event, with a limited field of 90 players.

In addition to a limited field of just 82 players, this Pebble Beach Pro-Am is going to be played over two courses rather than three, which was also the case back in 2021. Monterey Peninsula is the casualty, as the players play three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links and one at Spyglass Hill.

As it is a designated event, we have all the best players here, including Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Viktor Hovland, which means the odds are more generous than usual this week on the longer shots.

That's right in our wheelhouse as we are looking for picks at +4000 and bigger, so we are grateful for this top-heavy odds board. At some point, one of these short-priced favorites are going to win in 2024, but for now, we are riding a wave of longshot winners.

CLICK HERE to find the best odds for each golfer in this week's field, with a strong field making up an intriguing renewal of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

There are two courses in play this week, the Pebble Beach Golf Links course, which will host 3 of the 4 rounds, and the tough Spyglass Hill, which will provide a strong test for one round before the weekend.

Let's look at what is required to succeed at Pebble Beach.

SG Approach - We will leave this here for the remainder of the season I guess... You will find courses that favor strong approach play more than others, but it is always important regardless. That is certainly the case at Pebble Beach Golf Links, given how small the greens are here, and you will want to be dialed in from 150 yards and closer.

Poa Annua Putting - Like last week, we are again forced to look at putting splits and see who fares better than others on Poa Annua greens. Whether you are comparing your picks against the rest of the field, or your golfer against themselves on different putting surfaces, it is important to check players' form on these greens.

SG: Patience - OK, this is a made-up stat, but there is some merit to it also. Many players won't play here or at the American Express because they simply don't want to play in the Pro-Am format. Longer rounds of watching amateurs hack around can throw individuals off their game, so I think it is worth looking at players who actively choose to play this event and thrive in this format.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Trends

We have been coming to this set of courses for years, and while we have a signature event, with two courses instead of three, and just 82 players instead of a full field, it is still worth looking at some trends.

Americans Dominate at Pebble Beach - Before Nick Taylor won in 2020, Americans had won this event for 15 straight years. Justin Rose made it two international winners in the last four renewals, but it's a rarity. Since 1937, there have only been five International winners at Pebble Beach.

Experience is Key - Each of the last 12 winners have made 120+ career starts before winning here, so having starts under your belt has proved advantageous here.

Winning Experience Important - 11 of the last 12 winners had already won on the PGA Tour, with Tom Hoge (2022) the exception. Before Hoge's win, you had to go back to D.A. Points (2011) and Arron Oberholser (2006) for the last two winners to pick up their maiden PGA Tour title at Pebble Beach.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

Here are the winning odds for every winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Sm since 2012.

2023 - Justin Rose (+3500)

2022 - Tom Hoge (+6000)

2021 - Daniel Berger (+1800)

2020 - Nick Taylor (+16000)

2019 - Phil Mickelson (+2500)

2018 - Ted Potter Jr. (+50000)

2017 - Jordan Spieth (+900)

2016 - Vaughn Taylor (+30000)

2015 - Brandt Snedeker (+2500)

2014 - Jimmy Walker (+2800)

2013 - Brandt Snedeker (+1400)

2012 - Phil Mickelson (+2500)

It has been a real mixed bag here at Pebble Beach, with many triple-digit winners countered by favorites winning. We have also seen Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker both win twice each since 2012, showing repeat winners are common here.

Mickelson won 5 times here, Dustin Johnson had already won two times here, before losing out to Jimmy Walker and Ted Potter Jr. and overall there have been thirteen players to win here 2+ times.

With a far stronger field than usual, this Pebble Beach Pro-Am might lean toward the top of the odds board again. For our sake, I hope not, but the trend of longshot winners will come to an end soon, and it will likely be in one of these signature events.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Here are my favorite picks at +4000 or bigger for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

You will quickly see why I felt I could add a pick this week, as three of them are over 100-1.

Jason Day +5000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $200 on Jason Day With FanDuel)

I am going to keep this one short, as there is plenty to discuss with my longer picks this week.

Jason Day adores Pebble Beach, finishing in the top 7 no less than 7 times in his career. Add in another two top 15s and just one missed cut here since making his debut, and it is clear this is an event Day loves.

Day did miss the cut on one of his other favorite layouts last week at Torrey Pines, but he's now double the price, which I think is an overreaction.

If he struggles this week, then he may well be out of form, but at +5000, I am happy to take a chance and find out.

Kevin Yu +10000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $200 on Kevin Yu With FanDuel)

Kevin Yu flashed multiple times in 2023 with some strong finishes, but now he is finding some consistency and whether I am too late to the party or not, I think now is the time to hop on board.

The 25-year-old will need to break some trends here, as he's not won at either the Korn Ferry Tour or PGA Tour Level, but I trust the relative youngster to keep improving this year and win.

When you look at where Yu has played well since joining the PGA Tour, there are reasons to be excited this week. In 2022 he finished T19 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and then T3 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, another coastal event.

He then kicked off 2023 with a T21 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii before finishing T7 at this very event. The biggest indicator is the finish here 12 months ago, but he's been in good form since as well.

To kick off 2024, Yu has finished T3 at the American Express and T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open, giving him two top 6 finishes in California. Now returning to a venue he loved last year, the confidence must be high for Yu.

Yu's two best rounds (67 and 68) came at Pebble Beach Golf Links last year, which is a good sign as he will have to play 54 holes here if he has any chance of winning.

He showed his strong ball striking at the Amex, where he led the field in SG Tee to Green and ranked 3rd in SG Approach, so he's one to keep an eye on this week.

Keith Mitchell +11000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $200 Guaranteed on Keith Mitchell With FanDuel)

Keith Mitchell loves playing in California, unless, of course, it's Torrey Pines. He missed the cut last week, and that's par for the course at that venue, but if anything it has just inflated his price for this week, which is a bonus.

It never bothers me when a player misses the cut at a course he's struggled at before and I would rather look at Mitchell's larger body of work.

The American finished 5th at the 3M Open towards the end of 2023, and he parlayed that into finishes of T21 at the ZOZO and a T38 in Mexico. He ended the week in Mexico with a 64 in what was a strong finish to the year.

To start 2024, Mitchell finished T30 at the Sony Open, but he was 4th after 36 holes and well in contention. He then followed that up with a 9th at the American Express, where he shot a final round 62.

Yes, he missed the cut last week, but he will now return to Pebble Beach, where he has finished 32nd, 12th, and 4th in recent years. His most recent start here was that 4th last year, and I am confident he can produce similar this week, based on the fact he ranked 1st in SG Approach and 2nd in Tee to Green at the Stadium Course during the Amex, and his form here and in California in general.

Kurt Kitayama +15000 (Bet365) (Bet $5, Get $150 on Kurt Kitayama With Bet365)

Kurt Kitayama has already won an event of this magnitude, having won at Bay Hill just under 12 months ago, and I think he's well worth betting on to win another at this level.

It is a small sample size, but in three starts at this event, Kitayama has already posted finishes of 18th and 29th, and he can add to that this week.

Kitayama consistently pegs it up at a big price, but he's done nothing but impress since making his way to the PGA Tour. Before winning at Bay Hill, the Americans had already finished 2nd at the CJ Cup, the Mexico Open, and the Scottish Open, and he'd also locked in top 5 finishes at the US PGA Championship and the Honda Classic, two more strong tests.

Born in Northern California, it is no surprise that Kitayama has found comfort in putting on Poa Annua Greens, and that is a huge plus this week.

The American is pretty lightly run in recent months, making just seven starts since missing the cut at the Travelers last June, but he's not missed a weekend since and has posted some low rounds of late.

In his final start of 2023, Kitayama shot a 64 in round 3 of the ZOZO Championship, and he's started 2024 in a similar fashion. He finished 16th that week, and in back-to-back starts in Hawaii he finished T29 and T24, but posted rounds of 64 and 66 at The Sentry and a round of 62 at the Sony Open. He was 4th after 36 holes at the Sony, and if he can get off to another fast start here, I think he can hang around for the weekend.