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Tom Jacobs is back with three picks for the 2024 Mexico Open, all of whom are +4000 or bigger to win this week.
ANALYSIS

Mexico Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Van Rooyen, Valimaki at Vidanta

The Mexico Open is one of the weaker fields we are going to get this season, which means value might seem hard to come by... The good news is, we still have multiple picks at 40-1 and bigger for the week.

We have three players who we think can hang with Tony Finau on Sunday, and that is likely the task here in Mexico. Beat Tony Finau, and you have a good chance of winning this tournament. We can't pick Finau to win as he is the +750 favorite, but he has every right to be, with course figures of 2-1.

When it comes to making your golf picks this week, you have to consider the strength of the field. While on the face of it, your player may not seem the strongest value, when you take into account that Finau is essentially in a class of his own, it is not the toughest field to beat, if the 24th-best player doesn't perform on Sunday.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Mexico Open, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your first bet wins.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Mexico Open?

We have only seen two renewals of this event, so this Vidanta Villarta course is still relatively new to us, but what have learned in that time?

SG Off the Tee - Off the Tee looks important this week, as Jon Rahm and Tony Finau both ranked 2nd in SG OTT the weeks that they won. The two best Off the Tee players in the field have finished 2nd (Jon Rahm 2023) and 6th (Cameron Champ 2022) so this is clearly a shortcut to success in Mexico.

Par 5 Scoring - Both the winners here have ranked 2nd in Par 5 Scoring the week they won, with -12 last year, and Rahm shooting the same score two years ago. Rahm shot -12 on the Par 5s and won at -17, and it was half of Finau's -24 score 12 months ago.

Paspalum Putting - Putting on Paspalum greens comes with its challenges, and that could be a big factor this week. Finau ranked 8th and Rahm ranked 18th in SG Putting the week they won.

Mexico Open Betting Trends

With just two renewals here and Jon Rahm and Tony Finau winning at +500 and +850 respectively, it is hard to establish any betting trends at this stage. If the trend is short-priced players winning, then just bet Finau again!

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Mexico Open?

Given the fields that regularly assemble for this event, there will eventually be a winner at +4000 or bigger, but Rahm and Finau winning has put a spanner in the works for this article so far

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Mexico Open

Here are my three picks for the 2024 Mexico Open.

Erik Van Rooyen +4000 (BetRivers)

Erik Van Rooyen wasn't initially on my radar, but when I looked deeper into this week's Mexico Open, I couldn't look past him.

The World Wide Technology Championship winner, Van Rooyen now returns to Mexico looking for another chance to win in South America, and it may well have been his effort here 12 months ago, that set up his win later in the year.

Van Rooyen has ranked inside the top 25 for SG Approach, SG Off the Tee, and SG Tee to Green since the start of 2024, and that's a great sign.

Since winning in Mexico, Van Rooyen has made 5 of his last 6 cuts, finishing inside the top 25 on three of those occasions. He did miss the cut in Phoenix last time out, but I do think that is a bump in the road more than anything serious, and the Mexico Open looks like a good bounce-back spot for him.

Van Rooyen sat in 2nd place after both the 1st and 2nd rounds last year, and while he fell away over the weekend, there was plenty to like. He looks in better form this time around, and now a 2 x winner on the PGA Tour winner, he should come into this event with plenty of confidence this time around.

Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, and his finish to 2023 has put him on my radar in recent weeks.

Hughes finished 7th in Mexico at the World Wide Technology Championship, and a week later finished 2nd at the RSM Classic an event he has already won, so he took plenty of confidence into the new year.

The Canadian kicked off the year with a top 25 at the limited-field Sentry, where he finished with a final round 64, and in two of his last three starts he's played better than his final results suggest. When finishing 64th at the Farmers Insurance Open, Hughes was 10th after 36 holes, and while he was disappointing at Pebble when finishing 71st, Hughes impressed again last week. He was 2nd after 36 holes last week at Riviera, and 10th going into the final round, so he's solid enough form.

Hughes has finished 2nd and 3rd at the Corales, a course by the coast, with Paspalum greens, and he also finished 7th in Mexico at the end of last year, so I like the correlating form coming in.

Like Van Rooyen, he has won multiple times on the PGA Tour and that is more than be said for a lot of the field, so I do think +5500 represents good value in this field for Mackenzie Hughes.

Sami Valimaki +11000 (FanDuel)

Call it the Mathieu Pavon effect, but I do truly believe that Sami Valimaki can make waves this week after an impressive start to life on the PGA Tour.

This is a step up for Valimaki, who isn't even the most consistent on the DP World Tour, but he is a two-time winner over there and has the ability to make birdies in bunches, which he needs this week.

Valimaki won the Qatar Masters at the end of last year to secure playing rights on the PGA Tour via his top 10 DP World Tour ranking, and he's made enough of an impression in 2024 to catch my eye.

The Finnish star did miss his first two cuts at the Sony Open and the American Express, but his made cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Phoenix Open give reason for optimism.

Firstly, at Torrey Pines, Valimaki was inside the top 10 after two rounds, before falling away over the weekend to finish 43rd. He was however still inside the top 20 going into Sunday, and on his next start, he closed out the Phoenix Open with a final round 64. This is the last two times we have seen Valimaki, but he ranked 6th in Approach in Phoenix and inside the top 35 for SG Tee to Green in the past two starts.

Valimaki has already won on a coastal Greg Norman course with Paspalum greens at the Oman Open on the DP World Tour, so this is about as good a chance as he's going to get in 2024, to win on the PGA Tour.

Interestingly, Valimaki's second win this past October also came on Paspalum Greens, so this might just be a chance for Valimaki to put his positive experiences on those putting surfaces to good use this week.

Article Author

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!

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