Memorial Tournament Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on An, Rose at Jack's Place

Memorial Tournament Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on An, Rose at Jack's Place

Muirfield Village Golf Club, or 'Jack's Place' as it is affectionally known will play host to another renewal of the Memorial Tournament.

This course and event has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since 1976, and it has given us some fantastic champions in recent years. In just the last six years alone, we have seen Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay (twice), Jon Rahm, Billy Horschel, and Viktor Hovland win this event. Now a signature event, with a limited field, we are for an excellent week, with an elite field.

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and the US PGA Champion, Xander Schauffele bring the firepower, but we are more interested in those further down the Memorial Tournament odds board.

That is because we are looking for sleepers and value picks at this week's PGA Tour event, and to find that, we will be looking at +4000 and beyond.

Let's establish the type of player who can win here, and who could profile out as a likely winner, further down the board.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the 2024 Memorial Tournament

This is an all-round test with no one facet more important than the other when you look back at recent winners. Approach play would be my lean, with Viktor Hovland the worst of the last five winners in that department, ranking 21st when he won. He made up for it by being solid all around and being the third-best putter in the field.

SG Tee to Green: You need to be solid across the board here, as you cannot get away with a weak short game, nor can you hit driver wildly off the tee, with birdies tough to come by out of the rough. You want your players firing on all cylinders.

Bentgrass Putting: Fast Bentgrass greens will keep players on their toes this week, and you will want to opt for players who have a repeated history on these greens here at Muirfield, or at least on the putting surface in general.

Par 5 Scoring: Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay were outliers in 2023 and 2021, ranking 30th and 23rd in Par 5 performance respectively, and shooting just -5 on the long holes. Generally, winners here rank inside the top 5 in this category and tend to be around -9 or better on the Par 5s. It is so hard to birdie elsewhere, that you must take advantage of these holes.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Memorial Tournament?

Let's look at the last 10 winners of this event, to see if players that start the week +4000 or better can win this event.

2023 - Viktor Hovland +2000

2022 - Billy Horschel +6000

2021- Patrick Cantlay +2200

2020 - Jon Rahm +2200

2019 - Patrick Cantlay +1800

2018 - Bryson DeChambeau +5000

2017 - Jason Dufner +6600

2016 - William McGirt +20000

2015 - David Lingmerth +50000

2014 - Hideki Matsuyama +6600

We have seen some huge winners here in the past, but since this became a more elevated event, and Jack Nicklaus made changes to the course in 2021, we have had to look closer to the top of the market.

Horschel was +6000 when he won in 2022, so would qualify for the sleepers and value picks, but it is important to remember how good he is as a regular PGA Tour winner.

All this to say, that we should generally be looking for proven winners, even when it comes to those at longer odds. Albeit, there are improving players on the PGA Tour all the time, that might have shown their worth here in the past.

Memorial Tournament Betting Trends

We have seen this course every year since 1976, and even since the event was upgraded and the course was renovated in 2021, we have a good bank of evidence to suggest what we are looking for.

Former Tournament Win - William McGirt was the only player since 2012 to make victory here their maiden as a professional. David Lingmerth and Hideki Matsuyama were winning for the first time on the PGA Tour but had already won elsewhere as a pro. Look for those who have experience in closing out a tournament, even if at a different level.

World Ranking - 8 of the last 12 winners were ranked 24th or better in the world the week they won here at Muirfield Village. All four of the outliers won in a row between 2015 - 2018.

Former Start Here Hugely Beneficial - 11 of the last 12 winners here had already played at Muirfield Village. Hideki Matsuyama was the only exception, and Jon Rahm is the only player to win here, without making a previous cut at the event.

Course Correlation - Will the PGA Championship Provide Clues?

Looking at the PGA Championship leaderboard from a few weeks ago suggests we could see some crossover in that event.

Xander Schauffele has a typically solid record at Muirfield Village without shining, but the two behind him, Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland are former winners of this event, as are Justin Rose (T6) and Billy Horschel (T8). Four former Memorial winners in the top 10 of that leaderboard suggest we could look for pointers from Valhalla, while Collin Morikawa, who won the Workday Charity Open here, also finished 4th at the PGA Championship.

Of course, it is an elite field, so you are going to get similar players contending, but the likes of Rose and Horschel who are arguably just below that category, provide further validation.

Sleeper and Value Picks for the 2024 Memorial Tournament

Here are my four selections for the 2024 Memorial Tournament. All of these are +4000 or bigger to qualify for this sleepers category.

Byeong Hun An +5500 (FanDuel)

We are here again, but I cannot quit Benny An, who is playing arguably the best golf of his career.

When I said we needed proven winners earlier, you would be forgiven for quickly pointing out he hasn't won on the PGA Tour, but as a six-shot winner of the BMW PGA Championship, an elite event on the DP World Tour, I am willing to overlook this.

It also helps that he came close to picking up his first PGA Tour win here at the Memorial Tournament, where he lost to Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff. There is no disgrace in that, and he can lean on that experience. Now a three-time playoff loser, he is overdue.

He was disappointing at the PGA Championship, but a couple of weeks off will likely have done An good, and I am confident he can pick himself up again.

As an elite ball-striker, Benny is the perfect player for this type of test.

Denny McCarthy +8000 (FanDuel)

Denny McCarthy has lost in a playoff in both 2023 and 2024 on the PGA Tour, and the first of those came here 12 months ago when he lost out to Viktor Hovland.

Like Benny An, he can lean on his course form here, where he's been 5th and 2nd in his last two starts, and finally breakthrough for a well-deserved win.

He's clearly a fan of the 2021 redesign, given his two top 5s here over the past two years, and he's a player who tends to repeat form, with three top 10 finishes in the RSM Classic and two top 10s at the Wells Fargo Championship, so I am confident he can come back here and succeed again.

2nd at the Valero, 6th at the Wells Fargo Championship, and three more top 25s on the season, it has been a fruitful 2024 so far, and it is time for him to step up and get that first PGA Tour victory.

He's going to gain strokes on the green here, so if he can play well tee to green, he will be in with a huge shot of contending once again. The one concern is he has navigated the course with his short game in the past, but he can spike with his irons, just as he did at the Valero Texas Open.

Justin Rose +12000 (FanDuel)

Like Benny An, I have a Justin Rose problem, and that was reignited with a T6 finish at the PGA Championship.

Now, he returns to a golf course he has won at, and also lost in a playoff. He hasn't played here since the restoration, but I am sure he will compete.

I backed him at half the price to win at Colonial, and while he could only finish 32nd, he did shoot at a Saturday 66, and he has been tweeting about his game, and the work he's doing with his coach, Mark Blackburn which for me is a good sign.

The desire is still there to be a top player in the world, and he knows the clock is ticking to win at the top level once again, so where better than a course where he's won before?

He had his best driving and approach week of the season at Colonial and was only let down by a poor putting week. If he can find his touch on the greens here, he can compete at three-figure odds.

Lee Hodges +22000 (FanDuel)

Chances are we are going to get a short-priced winner here, based on the most recent champions, but if we are going to look for some value, we might as well swing for the fences.

Lee Hodges ticks a lot of boxes this week, having finished 12th at the PGA Championship at Valhalla two starts ago, a result he followed up with another 12th at Colonial.

That means Hodges, who was 24th at the Wells Fargo Championship, has posted three straight top-25 finishes. With the exception of Davis Riley who won recently, you would be hard-pressed to find a player in this sort of form, further down the odds board.

4th and 6th in his past two starts in SG Approach, Hodges will have to improve off the tee this week to properly contend, but he's capable of doing exactly that.

Hodges found himself in 4th place after 54 holes last year and finished a very respectable 12th, and he did that by gaining in all four strokes-gained categories.

He is a PGA Tour winner now, winning the 3M Open since playing here 12 months ago, so he is better prepared to stay in the hunt than he was when finding himself in 4th after 54 holes last time.