Shriners Children's Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Norlander in Vegas

Shriners Children's Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Norlander in Vegas

The PGA Tour returns to Vegas for this year's renewal of the Shriners Children's Open, where Tom Kim leads a decent field.

Kim of course is going for the three-peat, having won here in 2022 and 2023, but will kick off his title defense with a low round? If you think he does, then why not back him in the First Round Leader market, where he is +2800 as opposed to +1200 to win? Of course, it's not quite that simple, and there's a greater chance he wins than he does lead after round 1. What it does highlight is there is greater money to be made if you can predict how Thursday's round will unfold.

Tom Kim may be the clear favorite in this market, but we can delve into the most recent renewals of this event, to see if there are any stats or trends that may lead to us finding a value pick further down the odds board.

This course is one that is susceptible to low scores, and we will establish shortly just how low you need to go here in Vegas, to have a shot at leading on day one - spoiler alert, it's a ridiculous number...

2024 Shriners Children's Open First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

First, let's have a look at the past five years here at TPC Summerlin, to see what scores the first round leaders have had to shoot, what time of day they started their round, and whether they kicked their round off on the 1st or 10th tee.

2023 - Beau Hossler (11:51 am, #1 tee) - 62

2022 - Tom Hoge (7:24 am, #1 tee) - 63

2021 - Sung Kang (7:57 am #10 tee) - 61

2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (7:15 am #10 tee) - 62

2019 - Nick Taylor (8:10 am #10 tee) - 63

You HAVE to kick off with an incredible round of golf here at the Shriners to have any chance of leading after round 1, with 63 or better needed in each of the last five years. Twice players have had to shoot a 62 to lead, and Sung Kang took it one shot deeper in 2022, so more often than not, you need to go even lower than that.

Where you start your round doesn't seem to be of major consequence, 10th-tee starters have marginally the better record at the moment, but there's very little in it.

In terms of tee times, each of the last five first round leaders have kicked off their rounds in the morning, with four of the five teeing off at 8:10 am or earlier. Hossler was the exception, teeing off at 11:51 am. Clearly, it is advantageous to get out on the course early at TPC Summerlin.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Shriners Children's Open

The weather forecast for Thursday's round may just give you an insight into why morning tee times have been so important to first round leaders over the years.

The wind picks up significantly in the afternoon on Thursday, with gusts as high as 25 kts in the latter stages of the afternoon starters rounds. There is a constant wind speed between 13-18 kts between 1 pm and 5 pm, whereas there is very little wind before lunchtime.

Get out early post a score, and let the wind slow the afternoon scorers down this Thursday.

With that said, Cam Champ shot a 63 from the afternoon wave last year, and both Patrick Cantlay and Nate Lashley did the same in 2020, it is just harder for the afternoon starters.

Who in this Field Has Started the Fastest on the PGA Tour in 2024?

Here are the fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average

• Henrik Norlander (4th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.67) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Black Desert Championship)
• Beau Hossler (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.70 - Low Opening Round - 60 (Wyndham Championship)
• Ben Silverman (7th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.86) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Barracuda Championship)
• Justin Lower (10th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express and Scottish Open)
• Rico Hoey (10th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 63 (American Express)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Shriners Children's Open?

We know you need to shoot at least a round of 63 to have a chance of leading after round 1 here, but you might even need a 62 to be sure. Don't waste your time on players who you think may have a ceiling of 64 or 65. You need to trust they can threaten the lower 60s on Thursday.

The Favorites in the 2024 Shriners Children's Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market this week, at the Shriners Children's Open.

• Tom Kim (+2800)
• Taylor Pendrith (+4000)
• Beau Hossler (+5000)
• Eight more players at +5000

2024 Shriners Children's Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are my picks for the 2024 Shriners Children's Open First Round Leader Market. Let's hope we can cash a ticket early in Vegas this week, allowing us to free-wheel our outrights over the weekend (if they get there...)

Chan Kim +6600 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.26 (22nd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 70-69-71-67-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 61st, 75th, 54th-25th-6th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.72% (9th on the PGA Tour)

I am convinced the only thing getting in Chan Kim's way of a hot start, is his alarm going off too early...

Kim is playing in the opening group, teeing off at 6:55 am, and as long as he doesn't mind getting up and at them early in Vegas this week, he's got the perfect profile to succeed at this course.

Kim is American, but he was born in South Korea, and he will no doubt take confidence from Tom Kim who won back-to-back years here, a year after Sungjae Im won in 2021. Add in Sung Kang's opening 61 here in 2021, and fast starts from Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, and Sungaje Im over the past three years, and he's not got to look far for inspiration.

Aside from drawing on his South Korean background for help, Chan Kim has the perfect profile for this test, as he sits inside the top 10 for Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024. That puts him in some pretty elite company, and when you look at who has made the most Par Breakers (birdies or eagles) over the past six months, only five people have made more than him, and they have all played at least five more rounds. He has made 219 birdies or eagles in his past 46 rounds, a 26.4% rate.

Last week, Kim opened with a 65 to sit in 6th place after round one, and a third-round 66 added to that good scoring. A pair of 67s gave him a solid foundation to build on at the Sanderson Farms, while a second-round 66 at the Procore Championship kicked off his Fall Swing in great style.

At the John Deere Classic and the ISCO Championship, Kim was able to shoot rounds 63 and 64 at the Barracuda continued to show his prowess in shooting low scores, even if for just one round. We are banking he does that in the opening round here, with the most suitable tee time.

Kim does seem to start faster with an afternoon tee time, but I think this opportunity to back him in the opening group is too good to pass up.

Harry Hall +6600 (BetRivers)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.48 (120th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 70-71-73-69-65
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 101st, 30th, 66th, 23rd, 6th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.80% (7th on the PGA Tour)

Harry Hall went to college at UNLV, and be prepared to hear that often on the broadcast this week, especially if he is in contention. Each year he tees it up here, he is generally backed at long odds to win, due to his affiliation with the area, but this year he returns a winner for the first time.

Hall won the ISCO Championship, beating Matthew NeSmith, who also loves this course, among others, in a playoff. Since then, he's gone back to Europe to play three events, finishing 12th at the British Masters and 18th at the BMW PGA Championship.

After returning to the US from his jaunt over to Europe, Hall has only played in last week's Black Desert Championship, and he opened with a round of 65 to sit 6th after round 1, before finishing 35th.

Hall is a perfect 3/3 for made cuts at the Shriners, finishing 8th, 15th, and 26th, and while many might find it hard to see him win twice in quick succession, a first-round lead shouldn't be out of the question.

The Englishman ranks 5th for Par Breakers over the past three months and 6th for Birdie Average in the same time frame. Extend the range to the past six months, and he still ranks 10th and 12th respectively in these categories. Hall has also made 5 Eagles in his past 14 rounds, with only Bill Haas (6) making more in that time. This has also contributed to an overall scoring average of 68.00 over the past three months (14 rounds). Go back another three months and you will still see a respectable scoring average of 68.58, putting him 8th on Tour.

On debut he shot rounds of 65 and 66, he backed that up with rounds of 64 and 66 in his second start, and it was rounds of 65 and 66 again 12 months ago. That's four rounds of 66 or better in three visits here, and we need him to go a couple lower to put himself in the mix for the first-round lead on Thursday. He tees off at 7:50 am and he is definitely a player who benefits from an early start.

Adam Hadwin +6600 (BetRivers)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.65 (135th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 75-75-66-71-76
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 82nd, 141st, 18th, 58th, 44th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.61% (57th on the PGA Tour)

There is one player in the field who I will overlook an afternoon tee time and a pretty poor stat profile for and that is Adam Hadwin.

That is because the Canadian absolutely adores TPC Summerlin, and on almost every visit to the Vegas course he has shot a low round.

On debut, Hadwin opened with a 67 to sit 10th after round 1 and closed with a 63 to climb back into the same position after falling away on Saturday. Two years later he shot a round of 64 here, and he backed that up with another final round 63 to finish 4th on his next visit. Since then, he's shot a third-round 62, a third-round 65, and a 3rd round 63 last year, to take the 54-hole lead.

That means Hadwin has shot five rounds of 64 or better here, and a similar score on Thursday is going to put him in the mix for a low one.

He will have to deal with tough afternoon conditions, but he knows better than anyone how to go low at this course, and can do so again this week, despite the late tee time.

Henrik Norlander +9000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 68.67 (4th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 70-64-69-66-62
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 17th, 3rd, 22nd, 14th, 2nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.61% (36th on the PGA Tour)

Henrik Norlander was the first name I wrote down for this market this week, and while it's hard to back up last week's 62, he's proven himself plenty capable of posting low scores in consecutive weeks.

It's a tough scene when you shoot 62 on a Thursday and still don't lead the tournament and that was the case for Norlander last week, who played second fiddle to Adam Svensson's excellent round of 60.

I am hoping he comes back with a vengeance this week and takes his rightful place at the top of the leaderboard, something he has threatened to do on multiple occasions here at TPC Summerlin.

When Norlander missed the cut on his debut here, he opened with a round of 65 to sit 5th after round 1, only to back it up with a 78 and miss the weekend. Five years later, on his third start here he matched that round of 65 in the second round, and he went low again in round 2 last year, shooting a 64.

He will have to do it in round 1 this time around, but we have evidence of him shooting 65 or lower three times at this golf course, and given the run of form he's in, there's every chance he goes a couple of shots lower this times and climbs the peak.

65 at the Mexico Open, 67 at the KLM Open in Europe, 64 at the European Masters, and 62 last week, Norlander has found himself inside the top 6 on Thursday on four separate occasions, three of those occasions sitting inside the top 3 and within two of the lead.

Norlander is due a first-round lead, which would be his first on the PGA Tour, and given his past efforts here and his current run of form, which sees him rank 14th in 1st Round Scoring Average, 20th in Scoring Average, 24th in Birdie Average and 25th in Par Breakers over the past six months, I like Norlander's chances of a Thursday lead.