2025 Genesis Scottish Open First Round Leader Picks: Expect Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas to Start Hot
The PGA Tour heads across the pond to combine with the DP World Tour ahead of The Open Championship next week. Can Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas get ahead of the field in Thursday's opening round at the Renaissance Club? Matt MacKay is targeting those stars and others in his 2025 Scottish Open first round leader bets for Wednesday, July 9th.
Matt MacKay - July 9, 2025, 7:08 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2025 Genesis Scottish Open First Round Leader Picks: Expect Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas to Start Hot
The PGA Tour and DP World Tour will play the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open in a co-sanctioned event at the Renaissance Club this week. Located along the country's eastern coastline in North Berwick, Scotland, roughly an hour from the capital city, Edinburgh, this is a par 70 links course that runs 7,282 yards.
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy opened as outright betting favorites in this loaded field. Scheffler is currently +500 to win his first Scottish Open, while McIlroy is seeking his second win in three years at +1000 odds.
The Renaissance Club will be a good test for next week's fourth and final major, the Open Championship, hosted at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. Wind will be a factor in Round 1, bouncing between 9-14 miles per hour during play.
The First Round Leader market is always a fun and potentially lucrative way to get action during the first day of a PGA Tour event. For example, Scheffler and McIlroy are +1600 and +2500 respectively, which is roughly three times longer than their outright winner odds.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay has five golfers to back in the First Round Leader betting market ahead of Thursday's early tee times from the Renaissance Club. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks.
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2025 Scottish Open Odds
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2025 SCOTTISH OPEN DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Thursday, July 10 - Sunday, July 13, 2025
- Time: 10:00 AM - 3:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, CBS, Paramount+, Peacock
2025 Genesis Scottish Open First Round Leader
Collin Morikawa (+5000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Scottish Open odds
Collin Morikawa has a new caddie on his bag this week, as he continues to tinker with his game in 2025. Morikawa is an elite ball-striker, ranked fifth SG: Approach, 10th SG: Off-the-Tee and third in proximity.
The short game has been Morikawa's biggest issue this season. However, playing on a links course, where greens are massive, forcing hole proximity or strong putting to convert birdies, we could see him quickly climb the leaderboard.
After all, Morikawa ranks 13th in Round 1 scoring average this year at 68.92. Last year, he shot 65 (-5) in Round 1 at the Renaissance Club, so let's back him at 55-1 in the First Round Leader betting market.
Justin Thomas (+5500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Scottish Open odds
Justin Thomas fizzled out during the final three rounds at the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open after going 8-under-par in Round 1 to secure a solo outright lead. He's been strong in 2025, ending a three-year win drought during a playoff at the RBC Heritage against a Signature Event field.
Driver accuracy is where Thomas struggles, so it won't be as much of an issue along the wider, undulated fairways at the Renaissance Club this week. He's ranked 15th SG: Approach and 12th SG: Putting, including first in birdie average and second on par 4s.
In what could quickly turn into a putting contest, Thomas' putter checks all the boxes as he attempts to replicate his Round 1 production from a year ago. Back Thomas in the First Round Leader market at 55-1 odds.
Harry Hall (+8000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Scottish Open odds
We're getting some solid value on Harry Hall down in the 80-1 range. The Englishman is among the best putters on the PGA Tour this year, ranked second SG: Putting, putting average, one-putt percentage and leading all golfers in putts per round.
Hall's short game is immaculate, which makes up for his mediocre irons. The 27-year-old ranks 117th SG: Off-the-Tee and 95th SG: Approach, so he'll need to lean on his elite talent on and around the greens to climb the leaderboard in Round 1.
During his lone appearance in 2023, Hall carded a forgettable +1 in Round 1. However, his current form is trending upward, so paired with his top-tier putting ability, I like backing Hall in the First Round Leader market at +8000 odds.
Daniel Brown (+12000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Scottish Open odds
Coming off of a BMW International Open win on the DP World Tour, England's Daniel Brown holds a lot of value in the First Round Leader market at 120-1 odds. Brown shot a 65 (-5) in Round 1 at the Renaissance Club last year and is more than capable of making a similar run up the leaderboard on Thursday.
Brown ranks 21st in putts per GIR, 22nd in average putts per round and 29th in stroke average against in 2025. He shot a 70 in Round 1 during his win last week, before going 65-65-66 to beat Jordan Smith. However, in his previous start at the KLM Open, Brown shot a 66 in Round 1.
At 120-1 odds, Brown's First Round Leader prop warrants a small wager before he tees off at the Genesis Scottish Open.
Sami Valimaki (+12000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Scottish Open odds
Staying in the 120-1 odds range for the First Round Leader market, I've found Sami Valimaki as a high-value play. The Finnish golfer ranks 11th in Round 1 scoring average on the PGA Tour this season (68.88), while sitting 31st SG: Approach and eighth SG: Putting.
Accurate irons and a hot putter is a good combination to possess at the Renaissance Club. Valimaki is 35th in putts per round and 39th in birdie average.
He hasn't gone lower than 3-under-par in any previous appearance at the Genesis Scottish Open. Yet, I still think it's worth sprinkling on Valimaki's upside at +12000 odds due to his putting prowess.
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