Constitution Hill Cheltenham: Is there a betting angle for Champion Hurdle star?

Constitution Hill Cheltenham: Is there a betting angle for Champion Hurdle star?

Steve Ryder has his say on the betting angle for Constitution Hill at Cheltenham.

Following the news of an underwhelming racecourse gallop for Constitution Hill at Kempton on Tuesday, the market for the Champion Hurdle has changed greatly with firms having both State Man and Constitution Hill both odds on in their NRNB markets. 

Many of the horses at a bigger price in the Champion Hurdle market have significantly shortened with the likes of Not So Sleepy (14/1 on BetVictor), Luccia (16/1 on Unibet) and Pied Piper (16/1 on BetMGM) all between 12/1 and 16/1 for the race.

Even if Constitution Hill doesn’t recover in time for the race and misses this engagement, I would rate them very unlikely winners against the eight-time Grade 1 winner State Man and would imagine they will be much bigger on the day even if he misses the race. 

The one horse who I feel would be interesting against State Man would be Irish Point who is now likely to run here rather than joining stablemate Teahupoo in the Stayers’ Hurdle. Despite having 11lbs to find on official ratings with State Man, he has looked extremely progressive since the spring with victories at Aintree in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle. 

The latter was over three miles but he showed plenty of pace to beat Magical Zoe over 2m1f on his reappearance that he should be able to cope with a drop back in trip. 

The news stories will be dominated by whether Constitution Hill is going to run at the Cheltenham Festival but the update given by Nicky Henderson today (Wednesday) was much more positive. 

The likes of Kicking King, Binocular and New Approach have all looked unlikely runners for their respective targets in the past and have recovered in time to win so I wouldn’t rule out Constitution Hill running at the Festival and being good enough to win. 

If he is declared for the race then I am sure punters will send him off favourite for that race and that would mean State Man would be odds against rather than his current odds of 8/11.

When news surrounding high profile horses is shared, many punters rush into markets wanting to take advantage of favourable odds but I feel this is currently a market to sit on your hands. 

Personally, I would be confident that Irish Point will now be the third best horse in this race but at odds of 6/1 (Betfred) I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him with the likelihood of him beating State Man (and/or Constitution Hill) being slim and you only getting your money back for placing. 

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