Michael van Gerwen v Adrian Lewis (19:15)

Michael van Gerwen won the league phase for the 4th year in a row after defeating Phil Taylor 7-5 in front of his expectant home crowd in the Netherlands. It was another good performance from the Dutchman, averaging over 100, hitting four 180s as well as a 164 checkout. Over the weekend MVG made the semi-finals of the European Darts Matchplay in Germany suffering his first defeat in 19 in the series after winning events in Venray, Munich and Gibraltar already this year, to eventual champion James Wade. Adrian Lewis won in his first match in six against players above him and confirmed the last play-off spot with a comfortable 7-2 victory over Gary Anderson, despite only averaging 93.22, hitting one 180 and just a 37% checkout rate. In Hamburg, Lewis was knocked out in the 3rd round by Jelle Klaasen averaging just 88.47 across 20 legs in his two matches, with just three 180s.

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In a best-of-19-legs format, Michael van Gerwen is rightfully 1/5 favourite. He has a more consistent, higher scoring power than Lewis, emphasised by his 107.93 league average to Adrian's 96.50, hitting 24 more 180s and almost 10% better checkout rate (49.30% to 40.09%). MVG has won 42 more legs than his opponents in-comparison to Lewis' 10. Van Gerwen won their two league meetings 7-5 and 7-4 and overall has won 17 of their last 22 including all six in best-of-17 legs or more by an aggregate score of 64-39 (+25). The way to side with Mighty Mike in this match is to back him -1.5 in the most 180s market. In the Premier League he has hit 62 in 168 legs (0.37 per-leg), compared to just 38 from Lewis in the same amount of legs (0.23pl). The market is anticipating 15.5 legs, which suggests MVG hitting 5.7 180s to Adrian's 3.5.
Michael van Gerwen -1.5 Most 180s - 1pt @ 10/11

Phil Taylor v Gary Anderson (20:15)

Phil Taylor was slightly below par last week but stayed with MVG for much of the match only losing 7-5. Gary Anderson performed like a man with nothing to play for against Lewis, losing 7-2, including five legs in a row, despite Jackpot only averaging 93.22. Anderson missed nine of his eleven darts at a double, which has become a little bit of a recurring theme. Over the weekend, like Lewis, Anderson was knocked out in the 3rd round, 6-2 by Wade.

This year has been under par so far for The Flying Scotsman with an aggregate leg deficit of 27-16 (-11) to the top two and defeats suffered at odds of 1/2, 1/2, 1/4, 1/6, 1/33, 2/9 and 1/7 on tour. Phil Taylor has been much more consistent and leads Anderson in every performance statistic. He's won 100 legs to 65 (+35), compared to Anderson's 92 to 81 (+11), with 52 180s to 48 (0.32pl to 0.28pl), an average of 101.15 to 100.15 and checkout rate of 46.51% to 40.35%. Coupled with his wins of 7-3 and 7-4 over the Scotsman, it makes Taylor the standout bet at 5/6.
Phil Taylor - 1pt @ 5/6
With Michael van Gerwen and Phil Taylor the favourites to reach the final, the recommended bet would be van Gerwen to win and to hit the most 180s around the Even money mark. This bet was suggested last week and won comfortably with MVG hitting four 180s to Taylor's two to go alongside his victory.
MVG - 1pt @ 4/6