A Gareth Bale inspired Wales have been the surprise package of this Euro qualification campaign as they top Group B ahead of Belgium and Bosnia. They need just one point from their remaining two games to achieve qualification and since their final game is at home to bottom of the group Andorra, the job’s all but done for Coleman’s side. Bosnia, meanwhile, have had a disappointing qualifying campaign and trail third place Israel by two points.
Bosnia’s home record in their two qualifying campaigns since 2012 is W6-D1-L2, with the defeats coming against Cyprus and Slovakia. Seven of these games had more than two goals, with both teams scoring in six as Bosnia managed just two clean sheets. Their first-half record in these matches has been particularly impressive (W7-D2-L0) as they scored 18 goals before the break, compared with just four in the second-half. We rank Wales at just 51st (well below the 8th FIFA have them) and against sides with a ranking of 20-70 in our gradings Bosnia have won four of their five competitive home matches since 2011, but managed only one clean sheet in these games.
Wales have been excellent on the road in this Euro 2016 qualifying campaign, winning three of four unbeaten games and conceding just one goal. Defensively they’ve been particularly impressive as as they’ve conceded only once in their last seven games having managed just two clean sheets in their 20 matches prior to that. Since 2011/12 they’ve won three of their four trips to teams ranked 30-80th in our gradings (we have Bosnia just two places below Wales at 53rd) and with Gareth Bale fit again they will be confident of getting a result. Bale will be vital to Wales’s chances as he’s scored six of their nine goals in qualification, including four in Wales’s last three and the Real Madrid star can be backed at 2/1 to add to his collection.
Edin Dzeko is also fit for Bosnia after initially being ruled out and given the strong trend for goals at both end of the pitch in Bosnia’s home matches both teams to score looks a good bet in this one with both sides boasting excellent attacking players in Bale, Ramsey, Lulic, and Roma duo Dzeko and Pjanic.
To find out more about Football Form Labs, click here