The guys at Football Form Labs guide you through the best bets from Saturday's 3pm kick-offs.
Crystal Palace v West Ham
4th hosts 6th as these teams have made excellent starts despite some relatively tricky fixtures. Palace look in the better position to make a sustained push for European qualification though and the three games they’ve dropped points in were tight defeats to good teams while the Hammers’ four failures all came when they were favourites. Palace tend to find scoring harder at home than on the road but they are increasingly dependable at the back and their 14 matches here under Pardew have averaged just 2.35 goals per game. There have been fewer than three goals in 10 of West Ham’s last 16 away matches and we could see another tight game here.
Everton v Man Utd
United were brought crashing back to reality in their trip to the Emirates and a trip to Goodison promises to be another serious test of Van Gaal’s side – remember United haven’t scored here for four years, with defeats to nil in their last three trips. The Toffees have lost only four of their last 20 home matches and have taken four points from their last two home games, against Chelsea and Liverpool, while Man Utd remain inconsistent on the road. Everton have drawn five of 11 home games against top-six finishers in the past two seasons (W3-D5-L3) while United have drawn five of 12 trips to teams that finished 4th-10th (W4-D5-L3) and while we certainly can’t support the away team at their current price the draw looks decent value at 3.4 between two well matched teams.
Man City v Bournemouth
Sergio Aguero netted a handful as City thrashed Newcastle before the international break. They didn’t deliver our Win/Win double mind, but against injury-hit Bournemouth they will surely rack up another comfy win. City have had nine wins by more than one goal, and eight Win/Wins, in their last 11 home matches. Bournemouth have failed to make much from an easy fixture list that has seen them only play one of last season’s top eight (and even that was only Liverpool) and they’ve lost three of their four matches. Since 2010/11, top-three finishers have won 87% of 45 home games against promoted teams with Win/Wins in 60% - figures which make the home side look decent value here.
Southampton v Leicester
Leicester pulled off an excellent win at Norwich in their last game despite missing Riyad Mahrez. He should return here though, and having scored in 17 of their last 18 games we can expect the Foxes to go on the attack once again. With Southampton benefitting from the excellent form of Sadio Mane, Graziano Pelle and Dusan Tadic they shouldn’t mind an open game, particularly as Leicester still haven’t kept a clean sheet this season, and their last six home matches have all had at least three goals.
West Brom v Sunderland
Dick Advocaat fell on his own sword after failing to beat West Ham and given their fixtures Sunderland’s start has been ridiculously bad. The new manager won’t be helped by the suspension to one of their few positives, Jeremain Lens. West Brom aren’t exactly having the best of things but they can take solace in seven points from their three matches (all on the road) against fellow strugglers Villa, Stoke and Watford. Those games saw just two goals combined and 11 of the Baggies’ 26 matches under Tony Pulis have had fewer than two goals with six of their nine wins being 1-0s. Sunderland have been poor defensively so far but their nine trips to bottom-half finishers last term saw just 11 goals and against West Brom’s limited attack they may be able to keep things tighter.