Spurs v Liverpool - Saturday 12.45 BT Sports 1

A draw in the derby wasn’t enough to save Brendan Rodgers’ job as the Liverpool board took decisive action after a start that sees them sitting 10th but having scored more than once in only one of their last 11 games dating back to the tail-end of last season. In contrast, Spurs are unbeaten in seven matches since an opening day defeat at Old Trafford and with Christian Eriksen back fit they look increasingly impressive.

The good news for Liverpool fans comes with a head-to-head record that shows they’ve won their last five matches against Spurs while scoring 18 times (at least three in every match). It’s hard to argue that will be too relevant here, however.

Spurs have won 10 of their last 17 home games with just two defeats and given Liverpool’s recent away record – which has been poor for several years – of one win in nine with four defeats, the home team look to offer some value at 2.5. Furthermore, in the past two seasons Spurs’ home record against teams that finished 5th-10th is W5-D2-L3, which would suggest a price of closer to evens. Against that is Liverpool’s surprisingly impressive away record against the same teams of W7-D2-L2, though post-Luis Suarez the stats were W3-D0-L2 last term.

Liverpool’s lack of goals has already been mentioned and, while we would expect that to improve with Daniel Sturridge back in the fold and Christian Benteke returning from injury, the problem is particularly acute on the road, where they’ve scored just 13 times in their last 16 matches. However, despite these scoring troubles six of their nine trips to top-half finishers last term had at least three goals as they were usually good for scoring once while the defence wasn’t convincing. Furthermore, we’ve not yet mentioned Jurgen Klopp, and one thing his matches in charges of Dortmund were never lacking for was goals. This was particularly true on the road, as in his last three seasons Dortmund’s 51 away games averaged 3.33 goals per game and 71% saw both teams score. In line with this nine of Spurs’ last 19 wins have been by 2-1 scores, which is a tempting 10.5 shot, while 14 have been despite conceding.

Spurs’ improvement in the past couple of games can be put down to the return of Eriksen; in his 64 starts Spurs average 1.61 goals per game while the 18 matches he’s missed since joining the club have seen the Lilywhites hit the net just 19 times (1.06 gpg). That difference is even more pronounced at home and his combination with Harry Kane should see them have a great chance of scoring at least twice. Kane and Eriksen have started37 games together and 27 (73%) have had at least three goals while Spurs have scored at least twice in 13 of the 18 home games in this sample.

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Recommendation: Over 2.5 Goals` - 1pt @ 10/11